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I am very bullish Andrada

https://x.com/martincreamer1/status/1912736546249191540

New article on Substack

https://fitinvestmentideas.substack.com/p/shamaran-petroleum-a-high-yield-dividend

WHY is the bond amendment important?

Under the amendment, ShaMaran CAN start paying dividends. CAN is the most important word here.

Net debt is USD 109 million. At local sales, ShaMaran is making FCF around USD 100 million. With the recent drop in oil, it's probably a bit less. But still, at the local sale, ShaMaran should be able to repay all its debt over a year. So, if debt repayment is the priority, dividends are coming in one year.

If the pipeline reopens, the net sales prices could potentially double, and the FCF would double. Plus, the Kurdistan government should start repaying the USD 85 million that ShaMaran owns. Under this scenario, dividends could come in the current year.

That is why CAN pay is so important.

SNM – Secures bond amendments that creates significant dividend potential

ShaMaran has secured approval for a more flexible cash sweep mechanism to amend and extend the bond of USD 144m after the USD 29m repayment earlier this month. After the repayment, the company has net debt USD 109m (USD 16m related party loans and USD 50m of cash)

With the new debt structure, ShaMaran can pay out 50% of FCF in dividends, which increases to 100% if/when gross debt is below USD 100m. The company has flexibility to repay the existing bond at par as it prefers going forward but needs to hold a minimum of USD 50m of cash

We estimate ShaMaran’s FCF at USD 100-110m per year based on local sales only vs current market cap of USD 400m. As such, the company will likely become a substantial dividend payer (>20% yield potential)

The stock should trade up more than the current 1-2% on this

Pareto Securities today:

Kurdistan E&Ps - BUY on weakness from “stop in export negotiations” – Negotiations are in practice moving forward

The Kurdistan companies are down 3-8% today on news of “halt in export negotiations”. This is based on a statement from APIKUR, which represent all the international producers in the region

The Iraq Oil Ministry and other parties in the region are often negotiating through the press.

We believe the next news will be positive, likely in the form of new meetings and/or comments supportive of contractual terms being respected

Further, after being negative for more than a year, we now believe exports are likely to resume fairly near-term

We therefore think this is a good buying opportunity in the Kurdistan E&P’s.

State Department spokesperson, states that Washington urges Baghdad to reach an agreement with the international oil companies to resume the Kurdish oil exports "as soon as possible" and honor existing contracts with the US companies.

(2) Rudaw English na platformě X: „#BREAKING: Tammy Bruce, US State Department spokesperson, tells Rudaw's @diyarkurda that Washington urges Baghdad to reach an agreement with the international oil companies to resume the Kurdish oil exports "as soon as possible" and honor existing contracts with the US companies. https://t.co/D7vPbopmVg“ / X

Resuming Kurdistan’s Oil Exports: A Top Priority

The long-anticipated resumption of the Kurdistan Region’s oil exports has gained fresh momentum following Genel Energy’s call for the Iraqi federal government to formally approve its operating contracts.

https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/830375/genel-energy-urges-baghdad-to-approve-kurdistan-oil-contracts

Strong results out today.

Solid quarter with high cash flow generation – and Q1 will be better.

ShaMaran reported Q4 EBITDA of USD 22m.

The company had USD 77m of cash YE’24, with USD 38m before debt service generated in Q4 alone.

Gross production increased to 66,400 boe/day, up from 59,300 boe/day last quarter.

With increased cash flow generation and the bond cash sweep, we believe ShaMaran’s balance sheet now is transformed into a robust position that clears the path for further growth.

The company remains the most exposed player in reopening the export pipeline, which would approximately 2x FCF generation.

US Pressure to reopen the Kurdistan pipeline is increasing

National Security Advisor Mike Waltz spoke on Sunday morning with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaa al-Sudani. The National Security Advisor wished Prime Minister Al-Sudani a Ramadan Kareem, and expressed his concerns regarding the recent flooding in Baghdad.

Mr. Waltz emphasized the importance of moving towards a win-win relationship based on mutual security interests and enhanced trade. Mr. Waltz noted that the decision to not renew the waiver of sanctions on Iranian electricity exports was consistent with President Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy on Iran, and that pressure on Iran would increase if Iran continued to develop a nuclear weapons capability and support terrorism across the region, including in Iraq.

Mr. Waltz welcomed the Iraqi Prime Minister’s efforts to achieve energy independence for Iraq, and encouraged the Iraqi government to welcome more western and U.S. energy companies into Iraq’s oil and gas sectors. The National Security Advisor urged the Iraqi government to work with the Kurdistan Regional Government to address remaining contract disputes and pay arrears owed to U.S. energy companies, and also requested that the Iraqi government retain an investment coordinator to work with U.S. companies seeking to invest and operate in Iraq.

The National Security Advisor thanked the Prime Minister for his commitment to the bilateral U.S-Iraqi relationship, and emphasized the Trump administration’s commitment to deepening energy and economic ties between the two countries to benefit both the American and Iraqi peoples.

https://x.com/MikeWaltz47/status/1898857743601271135

Negotiations are proceeding, good that US is involved.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/06032025

Sparebank:

Among the four Kurdi E&Ps in our coverage universe, Shamaran is most sensitive to pipeline reopening (pure play Kurdi with financial gearing) and DNO is the least sensitive (net cash and NCS production in addition to Kurdistan).

A potential pipeline opening will more than double the EBITDA for all four Kurdi E&Ps. For estimate purposes, we assume pipeline opening from H2 25.

Sparebank:

Among the four Kurdi E&Ps in our coverage universe, Shamaran is most sensitive to pipeline reopening (pure play Kurdi with financial gearing) and DNO is the least sensitive (net cash and NCS production in addition to Kurdistan).

A potential pipeline opening will more than double the EBITDA for all four Kurdi E&Ps. For estimate purposes, we assume pipeline opening from H2 25.

Fake news

How do you know about the trade?

Are you sharing confidential broker info?

Where do you see this? I can not find it

SeekingAlpha: ShaMaran Petroleum: Trump Pushed Kurdistan Pipeline Reopening Should Double The Stock

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4763269-shamaran-petroleum-trump-pushed-kurdistan-pipeline-reopening-should-double-the-stock

How do you know he sold his GKP shares? There is no public disclosure that I can find. Maybe Lansdown and Lundin want to merge, but I doubt any GKP inside info from May 2023 is relevant to today’s situation.

Marco Rubio calls Iraq PM to reopen the pipeline

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani held a phone call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on February 25.[41] The US State Department reported that Sudani and Rubio discussed Iran’s negative influence in the Middle East as well as the need for Iraq to become energy independent and resume oil exports to the port of Ceyhan in Turkey. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) halted oil exports to the port of Ceyhan in March 2023 but the Iraqi federal government and KRG recently reached an agreement on February 24 for the KRG to resume oil exports.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-26-2025

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani held a phone call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on February 25.[41] The US State Department reported that Sudani and Rubio discussed Iran’s negative influence in the Middle East as well as the need for Iraq to become energy independent and resume oil exports to the port of Ceyhan in Turkey. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) halted oil exports to the port of Ceyhan in March 2023 but the Iraqi federal government and KRG recently reached an agreement on February 24 for the KRG to resume oil exports.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-26-2025

Minutes of Garrett Soden presentation from today’s Sparebank conference:

https://fitinvestmentideas.com/2025/02/26/shamaran-trump-pushed-kurdistan-pipeline-reopening-should-at-least-double-the-share-price/