Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Bjhesus H, ffs- we've all shorted from 16 and done fine without insiders, or maybe the odd nudge...
But wtf is your game ReetTech?
This is worth a long now, surely- this is not a dead cat bob: the fundamentals are so strong.
I don't understand your agenda.
I've been honest- give me your position please?
Anyone else heard S2G's (Rudberg's) commitment last night to NYI investors- ref an exciting rare earth project in SA? That's Palabora, right?
"...focussed capital investment to expedite the project...[..] and several further projects we're appraising with our partners."
So, to join the dots, S2g are VC pumpers for Techmet, who are your partners, right?
I guess this means dilution for existing shareholders, which I don't bring with any glee.
But interesting that there's flagship interest from a major VC in the deposit in SA.
Does this company still work in Burundi? soz could trawl back RNS.
But i like a large VC talking-up a micro. The only teason it was sent to me.
Get well soon Prodigy!!
All the best,
Great stuff!!
Two rules here:
1) Dont lose money - however much you love a company, sell if the price drops to a certain predefined level
2) Dont be greedy - 3 bag is plenty - leave some for the other guy.
Loosely based on Jesse Livermore and Warren Buffet.
Although, I might be breaking rule 2 with RBW because there's PLENTY to go around!!!
Thank you Castleford Tiger for your comments.
...I'm not entirely sure what you mean but I'm sure you believe fervently in what you have written, and for that, I think we should all thank you.
Thank you.
Now, have you got anything to add?
What next Puddy?
My view:
Investors are in for months and years of complex machinations that keep us talking but eventually exhaust even the most strident supporters of FRR. See you in 2022...? 2023...?
That's the Lenigas template that has worked for him to build up a fortune from bored investors. Many others have followed the same route:
Stall and stall and delay ...................until even the Mole's and the Devex type's and whoever else have to admit they called it wrong and move on....
The investment is already sequestered many months/years before the end game.
Imagine you spunked 400 million dollars without anyone noticing.
The money is in you bank (or actually, much of it spent ...but say 5% of that is in your bank).... but there's a load of investors thinking they will get a pay out.
You started out with good intentions, but things go south, you work and work, things go south... 2, 3, 5 years, investors.... you tell 'em what they need to hear and try again. Who's the victim? You're trying, man?! You're trying. Rain down, rain down on me, from a great height.....Paranoid Android.
What next?
Would you suddenly announce that you'd messed up and actually, here's some of the money? Bye!
Would you work with PWC to slide it all?
No, you wouldn't.
How would you cover up?
Me, I'd dump the asset in a series of woe like I described above: I tried!
I'd roll over, cry and accept the humiliation, meet with investors to commiserate but eventually, I'd sail away into the sunset.
Roll over the company to the likes of Outrider - because I had already sequestered a chunk of the $400mio.
Dawn.......
What interests me most here, is that Nicandros and Marmalishvili could have closed this book down months ago, and most would have accepted a sequence of bankruptcy and insolvency... and loss.
They could have cried woe.
SN & ZM COULD have ridden off into the sunset with whatever's left of $400 million dollars. (...there must be a fair bit, right?)
But they haven't.
So, my view is that they are fighting for something they believe in.
I dont think they respect us investors because if they did, we would have had some better coms over the months and years.
I think that the whole Frontera machine accepts investors as a necessary evil and is fighting for something it believes in - return to Constantine Nicandros' advice to his dorky son Steve about these fields.
My view, for my little piece of investment left in here is that these guys ae fighting for their own objectives, which incidentally happen to be aligned with ours.
We might do alright here.
If I was a crook (and I'm not, but if I was), and I'd nicked $500,000,000, I would string my investors along for the rest of my life.
I'd throw them a bone every now and then. I'd take the company private and I’d fling the company from crisis to crisis and I'd carefully make an effort to appear whiter than White.
I'd live in a modest house.
I’d steer the company into a court battle with a stakeholder like Outrider, and then let them have the spoils, but only after a fight, of course. Woe!
I’d employ YJ!
I'd help my children in their endeavours. Christ, I’d even give them a job in the company!
I'd do some work to make it OK - like some public service or something. AC perhaps (if they were stupid enough to think I had a clue, but I’m quite eloquent actually – I’m not an idiot and I know oil). And I'd live a life in glorious complete and utter denial of what a shambolic but ultimately "interesting" company I had run. I would keep it running and try to save the day. Yes I would! I’d politicise the whole thing and I’d align it all to regional frustrations. I’d work with my friends to try to make this whole thing WORK!!! I’d work to make it WORK! And I’d spin the whole crazy political noise around the Moldova, Ukr, Georgia tensions.
I'd bemoan the local legislation and lobby for change. Sometimes I'd have to step up to the plate as a figure who had been there and done that... and I'd talk about the following:
(RNS soundbites over the last couple of years):
"...Gareji reservoir, development of which will be transformational for the Company and Georgia's energy industry..."
"...transformational milestone for the Company and a big step towards the energy independence for Georgia."
"...500km further southeast from Block 12, the giant Shah-Deniz gas field..."
My favourites from Steve over previous years:
"...the country's historic march towards energy independence."
"...has revealed significant gas resources that can provide more than 150 years of gas supply to the country."
"...situated on the doorstep of Europe's consumption markets, this extensive resource..."
But I’d get on with my life.
I would go to the opera from time to time; Verdi (whether it’s his operas or his strangely appropriate requiem to which I am drawn), but I like others also.
I would have a property and maybe a boat in Ventura harbour, CA.
I would have a new house in Houston (holiday home???) - if I was Zaza.
I’d build a wall to ensure security as those needles fall every year.
I would declare my love for Georgia and its people and, when pressed, I’d talk about agricultural development projects and anti-natal care. I love that country.
I’d weep sometimes.
But I’d also consider doing the right thing for my investors (500 of them at the last count).
I’d consider it very carefully…
OK, if it really was SN & ZM sequestering cash from investors, could you imagine?
Really? Were they siphoning off cash!!??
These guys didn’t start as criminals!
How on earth would they normalise that and get away with it?? Are you insane to even be thinking that??? I say you are, surely!
I do NOT think that at all: Unequivocally, I do not think that SN, ZM et al came to realise that there was a business angle to be made, milking the story; selling equity. I do not think that in 2010 the objective changed.
I do not believe that a management shift (that saw amongst other events Liz Williamson leave – with whom I had a personal rapport) in 2011-15 a focus on a different attitude towards investors. NO!
Our friends at FRR started this with the right intent. And clearly now, after 20 years, the intent is still the same: To develop these fields in Eastern Europe with money from investors. Nothing changed as the cash rolled in and the ease of dilution oozed gently from the honey pot of increasingly euphoric hope that titillated you and me.
Nothing changed.
Nothing changed as the well results continued to disappoint (through incompetence in my view) – and don’t respond until you have read in full the Mirzaani washouts - the full NS&As!!! For starters…..
YJ are employed to continue to normalise the situation and their efforts are perfectly commendable.
Well done YJ – super job!
The court case may drag on for many months / years. Yes there is an actual legal battle going on. But what is there really to fight for when actually, someone may have already won....?
Anyone can sign a MOA with BH for services to be delivered on a contract - Jesus, I reckon I can get them to come and drill in my garden for the right price and with the right data set…. like I pay someone to come and cut my hedge.
What evidence does anyone have that we are in discussions with BP - OK, the email comment to SH in the Cayman evidence was legit, but where is the meat on the bones to say how solid that is. Do BP not appraise many opportunities, or maybe, actually they are just interested in a miserably under-developed piece of dirt in Georgia as the next great hope for global energy supply?
BP? Yes?
Hmmm… maybe. We live in hope.
Each and every one of those emails from Frontera at that time was carefully scrutinised before it was sent. They knew it would be public info as they knew the court case was developing: The car was already running to attract that crazy dog… and who ever was driving the car needed everything to be carefully aligned and scrutinised…
(I write here with some sympathy for my friend J who’s Lurcher caught up with a taxi one rainy Saturday night and wrapped itself around the nearside back axel – they do sometimes chase those cars, don’t they? …those crazy hounds… looking for a meaty treat…!)
Do not press “Send” before carefully appraising the contents of that email.
Already won?
What some folks have to understand is that half a billion dollars has been sequestered from investors over the last 2 decades. The winners are already the recipients of that money, no?
And who are they?
Nobody is asking that!
Craft and who was the other one? UniServe?!
For starters…..
$500 million.
I’m not talking down the company, but just take a moment and look at the numbers FFS!
Just for fun; how many shares did those guys get to dump while investors were ramped about something or other... was is autumn 2017 when we were seeking landowners permission to run a pipe from UD2 (I admit I personally wet my pants at that time)?
Or before that when it was the MK wells (120 days……..)?
Or was it more recently when we returned to Taribani after 20 years of complete and utter technical flunk ups - I see BLOE are doing 500m horizontal - didnt we try horizontal in 2005???
Jesus…. and look at the Mirzaani wells for flunk ups! Or the whole MK shallow gas campaign!
Half a billion dollars.
$500,000,000
But the money kept rolling in, and was “spent…..”
Spike, you seem a bit prickly this morning.
So, Hope is not playing for the asset - that is merely his bargaining position with the default. Hope is playing for a larger share of the current pie because he knows the value is progressing fast with BHGE and BP.
Any value for Hope is hugely uncertain without SN/ZM/Frontera (with whom we as shareholders are aligned).
This is why Hope is interested in an equity stake.
The ZM/SN/Frontera bargaining position in this spat is the breach of fiduciary duty claim – a serious, evidenced and well executed position. In fact, the September default in financing only cements the evidence presented (although we clearly have some wild and confident attorneys who advised on that one…).
An out of court settlement is the most likely outcome here.
Of course it is!!
And this will be thrashed out over the next few days, and once it is concluded, Frontera have finance waiting (the NY transaction), and the best possible partners to expedite the asset (BHGE & BP).
We may well remain suspended until all of the above is tied up, but make no mistake: This is happening right now because it’s happening (Black Swan and all that….)
1) Troy Rillo at YA has parked their position in a very agreeable deal, waiting with a box of popcorn.
2) BHGE have stamped their position with the MOU.
3) BP are quietly processing 20 years of data, working with the team on the ground and rubbing their hands.
4) Outrider are now having their little spat for a piece. And they are really going for it like it’s the biggest thing they’ve ever smelt before them. What does that tell you?
I wasn’t even too surprised by the Cairn resignation. I have to say that personally, I’ve never trusted Cairn and I think they may have some questions to answer. They have tried to distance themselves by resigning, but this wont be forgotten and in time, an investigation might need to shine a light into the dark corners of Cairn, and their smelly friends…
Hope “sharing information with third parties” – point 46 of the Nicandros affidavit, cuts both ways.
Anyway, it’s worth remembering that you cant make an omelet without breaking a few eggs.
JMO
I still hold a few of these, so I thought I’d make a comment or two…
It’s all about the data, the ability to interpret said data and 20 years of knowledge and understanding of the geology of Block 12.
That is the key value of this extraordinary 5,000km2 asset in eastern Georgia.
Hope knows that the field teams and geologists at FRR are loyal to Zaza & SN and they alone are key to unlocking the asset, because of the accumulated knowledge: How to drill and frac these rocks, mud recipes, drill techniques, interpreting the Soviet legacy, how the basins drain, where’s the power, field protocols, who sucks who’s dick, and above all, a deep knowledge and understanding of the geology of the asset.
Our shareholder participants of the site visit last year (Coggy et al) will attest to the firm loyalty of the field teams and it’s also clear that close relationships have of course developed with a number of other key players in the region over the years.
The data, these relationships and the accumulated knowledge is the key value here.
To exemplify this, we learnt that the GG were unhappy with FEGL for not sharing data. Frontera have played their cards close to their chest since the MND affair; they have held tightly on to that data... because that is the key value.
During the 2016 MND fiasco, Frontera were most upset about certain data being divulged. Frontera have consistently held on to that data tightly…. Because there-in lies the value.
Apart from that, it’s 5,000km2 of highly prospective and quite interesting terrain, mud, rock…. But that’s all.
20 years and $500K USD have unlocked something quite apart from the simplistic entity, which is “the asset”.
Therefore, even if Hope in his fancy suit from LA got his hands on “the asset”, took over FRR, brought in his own BOD and managed to retain the license with the GG, do you really think he would be able to progress anything at all to realize value?
No.
And of course he knows that.
Although he’s a ***********, he’s not completely thick.
He will also know that if he tried to sell the PSC (even a sale to himself) the license will almost certainly be revoked by the GG.
Frontera have spent 20 years exploring and understanding 5,000km2 of license area and have mapped, understood and delineated a huge HUGE oil and gas play.
-->202tcf of gas.
-->Huge amounts of >40API oil at less than $10 per Barrel production cost.
This area is a quarter the size of Wales. Do you have any idea how big this area is?
The value of the asset under a consortium of knowledgeable scientists, petro-physicists, geologists, etc is astronomical.
Hope cannot extract value from the asset without SN/ZM/Frontera.
It’s like giving someone a tractor and a plough on the moon and saying, now be a fcuking farmer.
Hope cannot win.
Agree Caleng49
;)
Absolutely agree.
My interpretation of Zaza saying that was about folks who have it in for the company - that was the context.
He said that eventually, the dog would catch up with the car....
lol
In case your trail hasn't led here yet, our friend Kevin Taylor (aka Jaknife):
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://uk.linkedin.com/in/kevinryantaylor&ved=2ahUKEwjasq_DqYXdAhVlC8AKHWAkA3UQFjAAegQIABAB&usg=AOvVaw2el0RfwMLYbylfext3hXZ5
TOT: January shareholder meeting, guy querying well economics. Overheard him telling someone he works for Rabobank....
Executive Director Client Solutions
Just to continue thinking freely about this……
While Zaza has told us that there are only 1 or 2 more Taribani wells that have the cement integrity to take a sidetrack, there are two interesting wells in Mirzaani drilled by Frontera that have a fairly decent bore, at least some of the way down. In 2009/10, Frontera drilled 3 wells in Mirzaani: SH-2, 1, 5.
Mirzaani SH-1 – Mirzaani field proper – 1500m TD – “severe washouts in the shales”.
“The testing results did, however, discover higher reservoir permeability than expected within this interval. Future development drilling will seek to encounter Zone XVII higher on the structure. “
Then, two others, the Mirzaani Sh-2 and Mirzaani Sh-5, were drilled northwest of the field into a prospect known as the Mirzaani Northwest Extension, higher on the structure.
Mirzaani SH-2 – drilled clean down to 800m before washout problems started.
Mirzaani Sh-5 hole was drilled essentially in gauge to 1,125m but skin damage.
Have a look at Figure 43 in the SFPU CPR (link posted in previous post) – drilled wells and planned wells in red.
In Mirzaani, the principal reservoirs are generally between 400 and 1,500m but in the Mirzaani NW Extension the reservoirs are shallower at 200 to 1,000m.
And the rocks are great - NW extension: porosity and permeability within this region of Mirzaani Northwest Extension Prospect is significantly higher than those in the Mirzaani field proper in similar zones. “876-894m - Core permeabilities averaged approximately 80 md…… Some of the plug permeabilities were over 150 md. “ And they never even perforated this particular section as they were trying to prove the deeper zones, but NSA modelled 100bopd without fraccing from this section alone.
“…core samples in Horizon XIII in the Mirzaani Sh-5 well, located in Mirzaani Northwest Extension Prospect, were between 20 and 25 percent porosity with 80.6 md of permeability.”
So if I was Zaza, with the 5 year study period ticking by, I’d look at a pair of sidetracks into Mirzaani NW Extension from the relatively young Mirzaani SH-2 and Mirzaani SH-5 wells.
“Many of the wells drilled in Mirzaani Northwest Extension Prospect were drilled in the 1940s and very few have log data associated with them. These early wells targeted the Upper Shiraki sandstones, which lie conformably above the prospective formations” – they were much shallower than the really interesting zones XVII to XX…..
Now we’ve learnt how to drill, it should be relatively low cost to look at XVII to XX in the Mirzaani NW extension and if we can declare commerciality there, it’s another one to tick off.
Just thought I’d step back and put down a couple of thoughts on where I see us currently.
Upgrade of the funding deal for Niko-1 to Z19
With the result from Zone 19 in T-39, it’s possible in my view that the entity funding the Niko-1 sidetrack will not only upgrade the funding of Niko into zone 19 but will also agree to fund a further sidetrack of one of the other T wells – Zaza mentioned in the LSE interview that there are only one or two other wells in Taribani that have good enough integrity to be sidetracked and this could well be the Varang wells Mole mentioned earlier today.
So, why would they fund another well?
Because the results from Z19 are so encouraging!
96% of recent wells drilled in the USA required artificial lift from the start. T-39 is flowing naturally and pushing 250 barrels per day through a 3mm choke.
The oil has always been there, and there is a lot of it, but I just don’t think the market has understood the significance of the developments over the last 2 or 3 years in Frontera’s ability to drill these wells. You only have to read about the disastrous Mirzaani appraisal wells in 2009/10 and the “severe hole washouts” to get a feel for the problems they’ve encountered with this geology over the years.
Read from page 16 in this: https://fronteraresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Frontera_SFPU_Resources_Report.pdf
The fact that they can now drill a clean hole and manage the well pressures without mucking up the formation is a really significant breakthrough and the natural flow from zone 19 showcases this very nicely.
We also have the EWT results T-45 & Dino-2 oil to look forward to, but I have to say that I’m skeptical about how well these zones have performed and I’m bracing myself for a not so good result here. They’ve sidetracked T-45 and Dino-2 successfully with a clean gauge but I’ve just got a feeling in my waters that something’s not right here. Happy to be proved wrong but I think we might be disappointed. Zaza didn’t sing about these zones in the recent interviews and I think we’re all beginning to recognize how he works to move focus from poor results.
EWT results T-39 oil and gas and near term commercial development of T-39.
Make no mistake; the NGLs in the wet gas have a value once processed, but I have no idea how they will progress this opportunity.
The oil commercialisation is underway.
Further info on the next stage of Taribani field development after Niko sidetrack.
At this point, we will really begin to see alternative financing popping up. This could be very interesting to see who steps up and with what.
Updating the economic models.
Updating the CPR & proven reserve declaration
And further third party discussions on Tarabani, MK and other opportunities….
Other opportunities include Mirzaani….?
Prime Minister Mamuka Bakhtadze has named new membership of the Georgian government at Governmental Administration today (12th July 2018)
Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development – Giorgi Kobulia.
Since 2001, Kobulia has been a member to McKinsey, the largest consulting company in the world. Presently, he is in the position of a Senior Partner in McKinsey Moscow Office, were he provides consulting to companies in different parts of the world: oil product, natural gas, metallurgy sector, as well as mining and processing companies, which involves organizational transformation, strategy development, introduction of a sustainable procurement system and many other directions.
Interesting to see what sort of relationship Kobulia and McKinsey have with Gazprom in Moscow...
Good news is, no sign of Kakha Kaladze!
https://1tv.ge/en/news/pm-named-new-membership-government/
http://forbes.ge/news/4219/Most-probably-Giorgi-Kobulia-will-be-named-at-candidate-for-the-position-of-the-Minister-of-Economy
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/how-we-help-clients