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Been very busy lately as you'd probably guess but here some nice B&W verbiage on the CMA
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5f7f3517e90e077417b16be8/Carlsberg_Marston_Summary.pdf
I am confident that on the Q3 results an added bonus maybe announced which will drive this to a better place. Well done for all those who remained positive and live Ive said before here's to Q2-Q3 next year!! My time is now completed here. Take care everyone
Great morale boost for the brewers that have been finally been released.
https://www.marstons.co.uk/news/hobgoblin-celebrates-top-beer-titles.aspx
Away from the current noise on this board (Change of subject)
The link below, we are following very closely to see which institutes are surging forward with the vaccine program. Download the pdf on the site and it will show the different organisations and how far they are. It's very interesting to see that the UK are already in the latter stages of Phase 3 (albeit a small pause due to a patient having a reaction with another administered drug).
Covid trials and progress per company/triel:
https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
With an estimated date of Dec 02 2020 for completion of all participants under the AstraZeneca:
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04516746?term=astrazeneca&cond=covid-19&draw=2
So with all that being said I very much doubt having read each of the links within the document on Link 1 if there is a vaccine within 4 weeks I will be extremely surprised.
My thoughts on MARS are still on a long term goal (2021 min Q3-Q4) and as for figures being released soon that's utter tosh. Nothing will be disclosed to "contacts" etc not only is it against all ethics of an organisations confidentiality statements but illegal with dire consequences.
I personally believe that very little information will be made public before the 20th Oct. CMA will make their next steps decision on or around this date. If they MARS make announcement before this date they’ll gain no traction as the markets are closely watching CMA’s decision. The key path is CMA decision, fin update then JV concrete signature. Then maybe new update on going forward. IMO that is.
Chatting to UK distro’s today and had great feedback on the ‘Taste the difference’ IPA sales. Pleasantly surprised they branded to the supermarket name but still left the brewers name on main label. Brand reputation is going strong and this is a prime example of supermarket and brewer working together. Tried myself today and can tell which ones they are clearly. Great move MARS this will do well.
Phase 2 and the Level of Effort is bigger than we can expect, they will have to create a wider team to support all the requirements of the investigation and can take roughly 24 weeks to complete (unless a discretionary extension is applied by CMA). If P2 arises then I can see this extending over the Q4 period and finishing mid Q1 which is against everyone's wishes. What we do need to ensure is that both parties have done their due diligence and the broker teams have made concrete cases to ensure there are requirements for a 2nd phased investigation. We still have Peel H in the background number crunching too so let's not overlook why they were appointed too. In my opinion, back in 2019, they were consulted heavily on these issues so I guess they have already done their homework on competition rights.
updated notice.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5f3f8ef1d3bf7f3928eb5a97/Marston_s_-_Notice_of_termination_of_extension_-_20082020_WEB_TEAM.pdf
Unless it's in the Public Domain any new information will not be present otherwise the integrity will weaken the integrity of the business. Looking at the CMA's statement that they announced, I feel that they gave less than 24hrs if you think the CMA starts at 0900hrs (and they are home-based at present) they first have to construct the email then send over to HQ (depending on whoever they have as a Point of Contact) so we're already less then 24hrs if they gave till 1400hrs following day.
My example would be along the lines of
18th Aug: 0900 -1700hrs = 8hrs +/- 1.5hrs
19th Aug: 0900 - 1400hrs
Business hours of 12hrs to construct email, send, receive, acknowledge, collate, approve & respond.....
10% down due to lateness could be a hard lesson to learn from, still not a comforting sign though.
Sorry, this was supposed to be attached. Marston's failed to supply paperwork on time for the deadline.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5f3d28acd3bf7f1b19a40ca6/Carlsberg_Marston_s_-_Notice_of_extension_-_19082020.pdf
Subject to change at any time
https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/carlsberg-uk-holdings-limited-marston-s-plc-merger-inquiry
Not to worry about posting the guidance, I only posted so others can see what exactly in terms of Level of Effort is required when these occurrences happen. Nobody can rush matters through and like many posts you've took the time to scribe that this is a long term buy not a week or even a month that some I feel are expecting. Like in my previous posts I have said 2021 will be more fruitful
I do believe that Sophie has given the date of Sept 2nd for all concerns via email/writing to be addressed by then (sophie.dmitchell@cma.gov.uk) you can email her any concerns or comments that will be considered before that date. As for a minimal of 3months where is this time frame stated? If you refer to the CMA2 investigations process fig 2.18 it clearly defines the process, each stage of phase and within 12weeks is the decision point. Longer periods of investigations do take place but that is purely due to geographical asset location, cross boundary compliance and fin checks. A good source of information is referenced: Mergers Guidance on the CMA jurisdiction and procedure. IMO I feel this will be reviewed and completed no later than 3rd Oct. My source of info https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/384055/CMA2__Mergers__Guidance.pdf
Best speculation and comforts those who think a decision is imminent, I think not.
It's such a shame that your stay at Marston's Inn accommodation was blighted by incorrect information that appears on the publically facing internet. I do take it you left this feedback with the receptionist on your departure? This would, in turn, be fed back up the chain where appropriate action can be taken either in simple steps of amendment of website details or omitting the option for food altogether. Perhaps giving the details of your stay with the grievance(s) via email (emily.mclachan@marstons.co.uk) so this can be forwarded to the right resource team thus preventing the bitter after taste. It is good to read that strict measures are being taken serious as this is the "confidence" that people need to know & feel when considering going to a Marstons establishment.
IMO as we all have say.... I very much doubt these to rise till the back end of Q3 which holds many answers. Firstly we need the actual signed JV doc, then we need the RNS on the actual deal to make interest and heads turn, then we need the restriction to the lowest govt setting to allow investment to take place. Those watching these shares to raise this month or next are sadly going to be disappointed. We expect mid Aug to Sept to make these rise and a few more shakes of the tree before true value is seen. I would say "Buy" for a long term but "Sell" if you're you cannot wait 90days ++ These will blossom 2021. Again IMO these will settle throughout summer 49-56p then as we head to Q3 results uplift.
A few people thought today would be good signs of golden breadcrumbs dropping in before tomorrow's golden nuggets!!! However, both announcements behind closed doors have been released (1 released on RNS already) and as a battered piñata there is only so much goodness that will come out. Remember, though doors may be opening and serve beer the confidence to go out and drink with comfort is a measure that the public will take by watching the media. The media have a huge part to play in relaying the message but can sit heavily on the biased side. IMO short term will leave tomorrow and move on the rest will continue to sit patiently and reap their fruits 2021/Q1-Q2
Rest easy, the markets are in turmoil due to the Beijing outbreak so knee jerk reaction for a second wave. Coming week with the easing of UK Covid alert level reducing and MARS results this day next with confident figures should bring an ease to worried eyes.
I am led to believe from sources within the org that release date is set for week commencing 22 June so I'd head for Wed/Thurs that week. Other half said he think's UK govt will make an announcement from Tuesday eve onwards fall out ref Leisure with ministers. I personally think it will be the 4th week so the 4th (projected) July will bring much-needed morale, bump in prices and also ties in the JV announcment, Blawat will ensure this is a success.