Bayes Theorem15 Feb 2026 14:47
Bayes' Theorem is a mathematical formula that determines conditional probability, which is the chance that something happens based on what has already happened in similar situations. It can help revise or update an existing prediction or theory given new evidence. The theorem can be used in finance to evaluate or reevaluate the lending risk to a potential borrower. Named after 18th-century British mathematician Thomas Bayes, the theorem is also called Bayes' Rule or Bayes' Law, and is the foundation of Bayesian statistics.
According to Bayes’ Theorem - if you consider the weight of evidence relating to past events vs current and future expectations by the company, you will come to the conclusion that this stock is not worth investing in.
Everyone is obviously entitled to their own individual opinion, but in a form of test using actual events vs unexecuted events, from a mathematical perspective - it’s doomed.
You’re welcome. Enjoy your Sunday 👍