Member Info for Feeks

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1015559/eden-research-s-killer-app-1015559.html

"For Mevalone alone, European and US markets are roughly the same- around €101mln and €95mln (US$109mln and US$102mln) respectively, translating to around €3mln of sales in each jurisdiction (slightly less in the US) per year for Eden’s range of products at an estimated 40% margin."

AA said Mevalone sales are close to $US 3m for 2023.

That's before any substantial US sales - tbe major market of California only recently gained dapproval.

Tbe broker forecasts look to be unduly pessimistic

I've watched / followed Eden for approx 20 years so I am very familiar with the business potential - and also with how long everything can take. I've invested in the past though mainly 'out' of the share over the past 5-10 years (but not now). The way I see things now, the business is well-funded and it has reached a point where investors can be far more confident than ever before of achieving long term success. I anticipate it might well continue to be slow progress at first but Eden is now an excellent 'long term' value play IMO. More cautious investors than myself might still choose to wait a season or two to see how the revenue sales figures Mevalone, Cedroz and Ecovelex products ramp up, but I think they surely will as new geographies and label extensions take effect (it's a numbers game, stupid!). And with news of the insecticide product still awaited the current SP should mean we have already seen the long term bottom.

Ay long last ! Another significant step forward for the business which ought to increase revenue forecasts for the current year.

Good post from Diversification on the other board, 7 Jan at 22:14

(Does one need to be a paying subscriber to post on that site, I keep losing the BB comments page to a re-direct whenever I have logged on...?)

Based on the muppet numbers....

PE of 10 requires £1.9m of annual profit to sustain the current share price. That would be less than 3p a test for capturing the whole market of 69.3m patients. Plenty of upside then

Thank you. I just joined and still feeling my way around it. Does he ever list out the stock tickers covered in each episode or does one just have to listen rather than cherry pick. I bought more on the good news / dip so very glad to see that the market has now come round to my way of thinking on this deal!

I just spotted that the rns on 30 Jan '22 announcing home use in Italy (Mevalone) includes usage against powdery mildew and yet we are told usage against that disease requires a label extension for the crop sector markets. How does that square...?

I wish it was mine but alas no. I've dipped my toe in here though .... only a small amount to begin (taking sage advice from Mr Justin Waite on that score). I'd prefer to see contracts flow before getting in too deep.

Big buys from Pershings, Shroeders and a few smaller ones by me.

I see no large trades. I see dozens of buys at between the £1-5 mark. Totally and utterly ridiculous!

On funding, in case my comment below is misconstrued, SED can carry on as a Going Concern for more than 12 months WITHOUT any additional funding. I think it would surely do that by changing its business model to something cheaper to run but less profitable - e.g. by granting licenses rather than seeking to maintain full control over its IP and production as it wants to do. I don't think it will come to that, but if SED wants to progress full steam ahead with all these opportunities (as it has stated it does), then it will be looking to address that funding gap by the end of March '24. My expectation is a funding method which is not nearly so dilutive as maybe the market is currently expecting - hence its a great time to be buying.

Hi Agricore - I think we probably agree on most of this and if that does not come across so far then it is mainly only because we are having a conversation over many days without a continuous dialogue. I'll go back over it all and post something more thoughtful..... As I see it though, ramp up to full-scale production will happen in India in February 2024, and in Sunderland in October / November '24. I think this much can be adequately demonstrated by reference to the news output we have both seen, and that it does not rely upon any guesswork - always room for slippage but it deems pretty nailed on, at least for India production. SED is therefore in good shape to reach profitability in a relatively short time frame now and we should hear soon about more deals to lend greater overall confidence. One thing I don't agree with is that there is existing funding agreement in place, or else they would have said so - and they purposely haven't done! An expectation of being able to secure funding is another matter.

Ok but what specialist staff do they actually need (and how does that affect the annualised cost base)?

Imvestors need immediate visibilty on the anticipated deals to be taking on new staff or the SP will soon suffer

Jona

Your post below mentions that they are taking on new staff in the same breath as claiming that robots are now doing the work in a week that was previously done by staff. How do you square that dichotomy please...... Why add to the cashburn by taking on new staff before any new contracts are actually signed?

My £6k top uo yesterday now doesn't look quite so bad. Plenty of credibility o the line here but at least there will be good stocko coverage going forward.

Quite simply it is a straight toss up between whether you believe the company holds no latent value beyond the deal it has done with SLB, or whether there is other valuable IP which justified taking an upfront cash boost to avoid further dilution later down the line.

There are a few small clues (but largely unexplained) in the recent RNS which was reputedly "culled" under NDA:

1) The Agreement also includes a non-exclusive licence to SLB for Adjustable Surface Production Wellheads, and HG Trees with the potential to generate royalties for Plexus from such special applications of the POS-GRIP technology.

2) Plexus has the right to continue operating in the sector on a limited basis and to retain ownership of the original IP.

3) Plexus may quote SLB Valves and Trees combined with Plexus wellheads on a project basis, subject to SLB approval.

These are the nuggets which point towards further revenue generation but for now I imagine Paul Scott must be spitting feathers!

Hello again.

14/11/23 RNS cannot be talking about FY. It must be calendar year:-

"Target volumes indicated by the client, subject to further purchase orders, are expected to commence in Q2 2024 generating revenue for Saietta VNA of approximately £12.7 million in the first year of production, with an expected minimum of 60,000 orders over a 5 year period.:

Same goes with the March 2023 RNS for.the Ayro deal which refers to start of production Q3 2023. This simply cannot logically be talking about the FY to end of March 2023.

Mine was not a theory - just a musing on what we do know / don't know. I suggest it is not enough to be sure of anything but that's why 17p could be an exceptional entry point. I am really only saying that 'utilised' means 'used'. It does not necessarily mean 'will use up the full capacity', though it might well mean that. My current impression of Ayro is that they could soon be able to sell 10's of thousands of units per annum simply judging by the market segment and unique offering. That's far better than I had initially thought. I am therefore hopeful that Sunderland will soon be fully deployed and I have every faith in the Board in getting it right.

Going back to my point, is it not possible to be a GC just by reigning in the immediate expansion plans, if that is required.? That is something different to binning India JV as you have suggested. The RNS seems to imply no follow on orders will be placed until Q4 2024 however you pointed out my error on the accounting dates. There's no difference between us if volume producton is expected by the earlier date of March 2024.

* a lower production rate than implied in your calculations