The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
'Geng hiss 15 - the RNS merely says "no fundraising is imminent." It does not deny that one was in the works, nor does it prclude one in the near future.'
Are you serious? They would be daft to preclude anything. Do you seriously think a small company with the growth prospects that Avacta have will not seek further funding? And when it does do you think they will give us the heads up and say its imminent? Daft again. Don't you think they would take the more usual route and simply RNS something without pre-announcing it - a licence deal, some sort of buyout, a raise on the back of a highly successful Phase 1 or whatever.
And as to investor bias. Well bless me! I takle it all your holdings are in stocks about which you couldn't care less - either way.
How can a Business Update be an update if no new material is to be disclosed.
Or does no new material refer solely to 'the science'?
There's a question! Or two!
"The longer they wait, the more expensive we become." Exactly!
"I suspect that long before five years is up that we will get taken over. At that point HCI will convert their remaining balance into shares at the conversion price of £1.18 and then effectively sell them immediately to the buyer of the company for what we all hope will be a massive profit. "
What sort of bargaining position would HCI be in should an offer be made and would they use it anyway.
My question is probably a giveaway - shows how little I get this side of things!
Just to add to that. it is interesting to look at the extent to which AS has used the media - his FT article bemoaning the UK's attitude to the business /regulatory environment which fledging biopharm's have to contend with. Perhaps he is more interested in this than any immediate glory seeking? As has been speculated here, is NASDAQ on his mind?
Also, perhaps AS is at present quite happy to avoid the media limelight - he is (hopefully and rightly in my opinion) playing a somewhat longer game, looking to reel in some sort of initial single licensing deal. Creating a media circus would muddy and mess up what is going on here - I cannot see how it would unlock Avacta's long term potential - preCISION across its whole platform, developing the affimer platform and building up Launch. Its a patience game. A good comparison is AVCT now with ARM in its early days - the 'media' played no part in ARM's slow rise, ultimately becoming the UK's single greatest tech achievment over the last 25 years. Sad how that ended though!
I don't much comment on why the share price is doing what it's doing - it's a bit beyond me. My take is that AVCT have some impressive 'platform chemistries' - applicable to both therapeutic and diagnostic sides of the business. I'm happy with that and that's what keeps me here. Ultimately I see there being great value in holding for the long term. I can see there's a danger of a low ball offer thwarting the long term potential. Perhaps any such poor outcome will be stymied by out-licensing deals - under wraps / yet to be revealed. Perhaps there will soon be a mind blowing mega bucks approach from big pharma that none of us can refuse. But if the share price is to gradually rise over the medium / long term to the fabled £20 and more, I doubt it will be as a result of further PI investment. Surely there are just not enough PIs about to push the SP up that far? So maybe management are simply being realistic. Knowing 'it works' they are pushing on toward commercial outcomes that will eventually convince IIs specialising in bio-pharmas there is a justifiable case for holding AVCT. Maybe what is holding AVCT back is not so much poor coms but an aversion on the part of IIs to take part in unnecessary early speculation? Their preference is perhaps for evidence of real commercial progress. Speculation and early volatility is for us AIM PIs and being a limited pool - cess pit even some might say - we don't have the wherewithal to take the sp to the dizzying heights we all crave. Enough pontificating from me. FDH
Very sensible Mr R - nothing much to see here. The next RNS is what counts
It is great Lda - and we shouldn't forget they will be wanting to bolster the interest that the ODD will generate.
An interesting choice of 'mid-atlantic' voice presenting it too?
Great discussion - ignoring the usual dross. Thanks
The need for experience of this sort strikes me as they are anticipating drawing together all the data which is accumulating ready for a (successful) wrap up and move to a post trial phase? Licensing, or whatever is next? An interesting recruitment, thanks gmcc
"A Trial Master File (TMF) is a compilation of documents that prove that the clinical trial has been conducted following regulatory requirements (including Good Clinical Practice). The TMF plays a crucial role in ensuring that the trial has been managed successfully by the Investigator"
A case report form (CRF) is a printed, optical, or electronic document designed to record all protocol-required information on each subject in a clinical research study
Thanks Timster, good to hear - and not surprising of course - that trials of this sort are run using a very structured protocol.
Thanks to those who built up this interesting thread yesterday, which I have just been reading. Can anyone who has a knowledge of these trials say whether, as they move to the later phases 1b and 2, the sort of patient selected changes too? Are less severely ill patients brought into the trial with earlier stage cancers, in order to get a better measure of efficacy?
Fantastic news - the as hoped for very favourable safety profile and re the in tumour release mechanism - but also the not quite so anticipated move, seeking an MTD. And very much agree it is also about confriming the platform. The stand out for Avacta id that it has these platform chemistries. Above all fantastic news for cancer patients.
Well argued BV and in line with what I have beenwondering for some while. If 1a has shown the sort of promise some suspect then to unlock the potential of AVA6k the next stage of the trials could involve some innovative dosing regimens.
Shortly after early January?
Kenyan - "too academic for my Chemistry degree from years ago" Thank goodness I'm not alone - I'm not sure whether I've forgotten all my chemistry or whether chemistry has become ever more complex - 'cleverer' But I do get the gist so thanks for posting gadgie
Very good summary. An Avacta good new year everyone.
The market being all seeing/all knowing is a fallacy... correct! Patience is what counts:
The vision to see them, the courage to buy them and the patience to hold them - patience is the rarest of the three… Thomas Phelps: 100 to 1 in the Stock Market.
It was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was my sitting - my sitting tight... Jesse Livermore
If you invest to get rich quickly you will probably only succeed in getting poor quickly... Warren Buffett.
Mind you it is not advice that I have found easy to take!