Member Info for Everton66

I do not think this is right. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of Card Factory…

And so it continues ….

Thank you Portswigger. I appreciate your response. Best wishes to you with your investment.

A little bit ungracious. You observed that my post was vague, that you didn’t understand it, and that it didn’t really mean anything. I tried to explain why it was on point by reference to differential tax rates. The point is a simple (and for those with large holdings, material) one. I will leave it to others to decide whether it’s of much interest - although I appreciate it’s not of interest to you.

I should have added that in the absence of indexation, the time frame of the capital gain seems to me to be irrelevant. Unless I’ve missed something.

Is it vague? That certainly was not my intention when I posted it. An additional rate taxpayer will pay marginal dividend tax rate at 39.35% (a higher rate tax payer, at 33.75%). The same taxpayers will pay only 20% capital gains tax. It would seem odd to me for a substantial shareholder to opt for an income receipt, rather than a capital gain.

Of course, I accept that that distinction is immaterial for a shareholder with a very modest shareholding, or somebody who holds their shares within a tax efficient wrapper. But that wasn’t the target demographic for my post (or the cohort of shareholders to whom I was referring).

I’m so sorry if that wasn’t clearer.

What I do not understand, is what the upgraded estimates of profitability must be, after Tuffnells. If DX share of IDW was 15% before the collapse of Tuffnells and is 25% now, and IDW is the biggest constituent part of the freight business, then that is a very significant increase in turnover, and presumably a pretty significant increase in profits. if the company was significantly undervalued before, then you would imagine it must be very significantly undervalued now, arguably, even at 48.5p

No link but revenue estimates up to 532m with operating profit left at 39.1m so operating margin down from 7.9% to 7.3% (something which Liberum say leaves room for upgrades). Guessing they want to see how the new business beds in before they change their views on bottom line impact

New Liberum research note out today - buy - unchanged target price - 50 pence

Where indeed… I wonder if there’s some corporate activity going on behind the scenes?

More positive news flow this morning

Correct. Although to be fair you would have to have been (1) very, very patient with DX, (2) possessed of nerves of steel to hold on after it’s return from what at times seemed like a terminal suspension!

Good to see the move in the price last week - been a long time coming!

Surely very occasionally things are in fact as good as they seem - with the very positive news flow that we have had, a share price still languishing 40% below the most pessimistic brokers’ forecast, a close to 5% yield, oodles of free cash flow, a clear strategy, and in my view, the probability that projections for next year, and the year after will be raised after today’s news, let alone after 22/23’s trading … definitely a glass half full day!

Https://www.dxdelivery.com/service-updates

Good to see…” high volumes of new sales enquiries”

An awful day for Tuffnells, and not one that anyone would wish upon their staff for any reason, but hard to imagine a greater opportunity for DX fantasy, the biggest rivals in the IDW sector disappear. Even if they pick up just 10% of the Tuffnells business, that is another previously unanticipated £18 million of turnover.

The company anticipates paying a dividend of 1.5 pence for the financial year to the end of June 2023

Well that reference to “continued strong trading”, gives us a strong clue about what the pre-AGM statement tomorrow morning will say!

Liberum have just issued a buy recommendation with a 45p target for those interested

Liberum now forecasting 20m PBT for 2022 (20% increase in their previous forecast) ie 2.6 eps - they are forecasting 3.4 eps for 2023 or 25.8 million PBT (thus increasing their forecast by 10% for that year)
I understand the last many months has been a bruising experience. But there does appear to be a significant degree of negativity infecting today’s news (which taken at face value is obviously very positive [exceptional items being just that]). Of course there might be something else which the company is not telling us, which may understandably temper enthusiasm, but if today’s trading update is representative of the company‘s prospects, then there is a good deal to be positive about.