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200p offer might get this over the line

Couple of 2m+ trades gone through now.

62.9 to buy
63 to sell

Overhang getting close to clearing imo

Well Ive taken 75% profit in less than 2 months. Think theres every reason for positive trading to continue but just taking a few profits with markets in US looking a little toppy maybe?
Whoever Forensic is I hope for everyones sake he continues posting negativity, as its been great for the share price.

Agree. Looks good for £19-£20 on management forecasts, if they are slightly ahead of 2019.
Government will likely be throwing lots of money at construction to kickstart economy which could mean potential upgrades too.

Well SAGA were making £140-150m net profit 2016/2017/2018
On a very basic level, if they can get back to this that would give EPS of maybe 80-100p

PER of very modest 10x would be 800-1000p. They should be aiming to do better in future but thats where im looking in couple of years if things go to plan

Singer upgraded EPS to 5.3p/7.3p for 2020/2021.
Target upgraded from 100p to 120p

I suspect M&A activity will be strong this year, as can be seen now with takeovers happening every week.

2021 PER under 10 with a nice divi to come

1.475m shares traded, so if it was a matched buy/sell then its still 737,000 shares....which is just over 3% so should get a holding RNS.

If the seller is finished then its likely to be-
Columbia Threadneedle: 790,414 (3.3%)

Will get an answer when they RNS.
Some tentative green shoots appearing, shareprice is bottoming out.

Some big trades after close. Hopefully this is the seller clearing....who has imo hammered the share price since April.

Over a million so hopefully get a holding RNS.

Looking firmer now than it has for some time. cenkos on the bid happy to buy ....for now at least.

as they said in their last note on SWG-
‘Upside risk. Our forecasts are unchanged and we continue to forecast a flat outcome YoY for earnings. We do see upside risk to our FY21E forecasts from the higher profitability secured in H1A YoY and also the strong start to H2E from deferred projects recommencing implementation. On a 10x EV/adj EBITDA rating, growing visibility and improving margins, we are Buyers.

* I reserve the right to completely change my mind :)

Take a look at the broker notes. I waited until both brokers had commented before deciding what to do. Not saying they wont be proven wrong but they make dire reading.

Next years forecasts of a loss have killed this.
They like to mention the cash they have but theyll still be in net debt next year.

Of course they could beat these forecasts and win new contracts and the share prices recovers, but its went from a great looking growth story to a 50/50 punt now. Id need to see board changes to get interested here again, as they have a serious trust issue now.

In the previous presentation he said they raised the money when they did because in Autumn 2019 they were eyeing up an acquisition but lost out because they couldnt raise the cash quick enough. Who knows if thats true or not.
I suspect any half decent company would raise some cash when the share price spiked as it did in April. Its put them in a much better position financially, unfortunately the growth predicted this year hasnt happened because of covid curtailing business spending. Hopefully this will improve as things move slowly back to normal. Tho as with all small caps its not certain.

I suspect any acquisition will be a smaller type buy, rather than a big paper deal which would be a share killer at these levels.
Im convinced theres been a seller in the background since April and im not sure theyre finished.
Maybe Secarma want out? lock in period ended April I think and theres been lots of funny business happening there to put it politely.

If they didnt have the cash in the bank and Williams/Higgins with 16% then I wouldnt touch it. At this price tho any kind of good news should substantially boost the share price.

Significant Shareholdings:

Secarma: 2,922,925 (12.3%)
Philip Higgins: 2,303,750 (9.7%)
Schroder Investment Management: 2,113,323 (8.9%)
Dene Stacey: 2,104,166 (8.8%)
Killik & Co: 1,478,410 (6.2%)
David Williams: 1,433,757 (6.0%)
Steve Watts: 892,857 (3.8%)
Columbia Threadneedle: 790,414 (3.3%)

Number of shares in issue: 23,801,419

Number of shares not in public hands: 7,328,710 (30.8%)

Director Shareholdings:

Philip Higgins: 2,303,750 (9.7%)
David Williams: 1,433,757 (6.0%)
Robin Southwell: 155,000 (0.7%)
Stephen Ball: 119,444 (0.5%)
Giles Willits: 67,717 (0.3%)
Paul McFadden: 1,715 (0.0%)
Total: 4,081,383 (17.1%)

This information was last updated on 30th September 2020

23,801,419 shares.
Directors have around 16%

with such low amount of shares the price can move rapidly up or down on good/bad news. if good news arrives then its difficult to buy any shares as seen when the price spiked to nearly £3 in April....and the opposite is true in reverse.

with cash in the bank, market cap only £33 million, director skin in the game im happy to sit and wait. Im not expecting fireworks anytime soon but a move by businesses to more normal working next year may help.

The company could of course do much better than both brokers are now forecasting for 2021, but LOOP could also do worse. To make a loss next year is almost unbelievable.
Its went from one of the best looking growth shares to a 50/50 punt

If the directors dont buy big style today Id take that as an admission theyve completely failed. Were given a gift with WFH and it looks like theyve blown it.

Terrible outlook for 2021
Downgraded from EPS 9.3p to -1p. Minus! How is that even possible. Revenue below 2019 level.

FY20E
£m unless stated Old New Change (%) Old New Change (%)
Revenue 54.8 50.1 -9% 56.0 35.2 -37%
Adj EBITDA 17.3 15.1 -13% 13.3 6.1 -54%
Fully adj PBT 10.5 8.4 -20% 5.9 -0.3 nm
Fully adj EPS (p) 17.2 14.7 -14% 9.3 -1.0 nm

Nows the time for directors to show confidence to the market and buy some shares. A meaningful purchase, not a token amount.

Looks like LOOP on PER of 10 or under.. If theyre not going to buy now then when would they.

Been a few chunky buys the last few days. Showing as sells but 90% of trades have been buys.

Agreed. Im in at just over 4 quid, until trading update at least. will take it from there.

This is true.
He has the benefit of 2 weeks hindsight with his trades..hard to mess up then!

He sold CCC but a couple of days later company released news saying theyd beat market expectations and the share price soared. Weeks later he doesnt have it marked as a sale on his trades section. Theres quite a few like this, selling before a stop loss yet others go through stop loss and then rise but he hasnt sold. Thats what trading with 2 weeks hindsight gives you.