Potential Base Case NPV - Co Pilot27 Feb 2026 19:54
A base‑case NPV scenario for Kendrick Resources’ Namibia rare‑earth licences can be modelled now that we have verified historical sampling grades. The key inputs come from confirmed disclosures showing peak TREO grades of 4.47%, average 3.12%, and significant Nd–Pr–Sm concentrations.
This scenario assumes Kendrick eventually defines a medium‑scale hard‑rock rare‑earth deposit similar to other African projects (Mkango, Pensana, Peak Resources).
1. Assumed Resource Size (Base Case)
Based on typical early‑stage African REE systems:
20–25 Mt total resource
TREO grade: 3.0% (aligned with historical average)
NdPr share: 20–22% of TREO (consistent with ICP results showing >10,000 ppm Nd–Pr–Sm)
This would yield:
600,000–750,000 t TREO in situ
120,000–165,000 t NdPr in situ
allurgical Recovery Assumptions
Comparable projects typically achieve:
60–70% TREO recovery
65–75% NdPr recovery
Base case uses:
65% TREO recovery
70% NdPr recovery
3. Annual Production Profile
Assuming a 1 Mt/year plant:
18,000–20,000 t/year TREO concentrate
3,500–4,000 t/year NdPr oxide equivalent
Price Deck (Base Case)
Using conservative 2025–2026 consensus:
NdPr oxide: $75,000/t
Mixed TREO concentrate: $8,000–$10,000/t
5. Operating Costs
African REE projects typically operate at:
$35–45/kg NdPr equivalent
$1,800–2,200/t TREO concentrate
Base case uses:
$40/kg NdPr
$2,000/t TREO
. Capex Assumption
Comparable projects:
Mkango Songwe Hill: ~$277M
Pensana Longonjo: ~$300M
Peak Ngualla: ~$365M
Base case uses:
$300M initial capex
Base‑Case NPV Estimate (After‑Tax, 8% Discount Rate)
Estimated NPV8: $650M – $1.1B USD
This range reflects:
Medium‑scale resource
High TREO grade (3%+)
Strong NdPr content
Moderate capex
Conservative pricing
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