Member Info for esduk

Big 10k buyer from yesterday may be back from the look of it.

Yes, the last two drops to high 15's/16p have felt manufactured and SP action definitely feels like it is being controlled. In both cases serious buying came in, that did not look like PI buying. I also don't know where the shares came from for all the buying on this occasion, as there was a lot more buying volume in 16's/17's then there was selling volume. Feels like MM's put the breaks on today so far. Let's see how it plays out.

I think it could just be that we are in a trading range until next news, but from my limited technical analysis acumen we are now pretty primed to the upside with 14 day RSI 70% level sitting at 22.4p and 80% level sitting at 30p. In layman's terms, we were over bought on our last couple of rises to the 20p area, which is no longer the case. Keen for the better initiated to provide more detailed technical analysis, but for me it is looking very good.

Yep, looks like our previous support in high 15's/16 has been reconfirmed and looks like there is little resistance in the 16-18s. Glad I took some more this morning. Note that yesterday's actual closing price was 16.25p, not the 16.5p (due to a UT), so currently up over 6% today.

450k buys vs 230k sells would suggest so, but let's see. We seem to have a 50k buyer that pops up when we get to this level, potentially looking to take a large position and buying the dip at what looks like the bottom of the trading range.

Looks like strong buying again in high 15's / 16.

I haven't heard confirmation that we have submitted an application for Songwe, but I don't think we were told officially that we had submitted an application for Pulawy and look how that panned out. The company play their cards pretty close to their chest.

As mentioned, I would be surprised if we didn't apply for Songwe given that we did for Pulawy and Pulawy's business case is intrinsically tied to Songwe (mine the RE at Songwe, refine them at Pulawy = secure supply chain for EU). I think there would be major benefits in getting CRMA strategic project status in terms of EU debt guarantees, debt and potentially grant funding. Let's see.

Completely agree Biffa, which is why I don’t think current Crown Proptech owners will end up with much more than 10% of the re-listed company, and maybe less.

I got the info from listening to the Sunday Roast podcast with Charles Archer and co (they talk about AIM shares, mainly miners). In last Sunday’s episode they talked about a few shares that have applied for CRMA strategic project status in Africa and Greenland. One of these is Harena resources, a very small cap with 75% ownership of a Rare Earths mine in Madagascar, a lot earlier stage compared to Songwe. Another is GreenRoc Strategic Materials which is (I think) a graphite mine in Greenland. I think they mention one or two others.

I assume that if other African RE projects are applying for this status then we are most likely to have, particularly given our success with Pulawy and our connections to EIT. If I remember correctly I think in his speech at the Malawi mining conference Alex actually mentioned that the previous EIT funding we got had been spent on work on Songwe.

Nice. I heard from Charles Archer that the EC are likely to announce non-European projects that have been selected as Strategic Projects under the CRMA this quarter. Apparently various projects in Greenland and Africa have applied. I wonder whether we will have done so for Songwe. If so, you could really see it making sense for the EC to select Songwe given its importance to Pulawy, which they have already decided to support. EIT's involvement in both projects should help the case. Would be a great bit of news before SPAC listing.

Of course, given how in-demand rare earths are right now, one or more cornerstone investors is also a distinct possibility in any capital raise at or following re-listing.

Nice posts Squirty. I think there is a also third scenario which may not be about the "need" to cede any control. As mentioned a while back, Mkango's ownership share of the new NASDAQ listed entity will depend on the relative valuation of Lancaster's assets (Songwe Hill and Pulawy) versus the Crown Proptech's assets (listing and cash), the fees due to Cohen and Co. and other advisors, and whether and to what extent there is a decision for the new entity to raise cash upon re-listing on the Nasdaq.

I have no doubt that Mkango would hold a large majority of the newly listed entity e.g. c.80-90% if we assume there is no capital raise upon re-listing. But it may be that the "majority" wording is designed to give the new entity room/optionality to complete a fairly substantial raise upon re-listing on NASDAQ so that we can start the Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) study for Songwe Hill, DFS for Pulawy and have cash at hand to put up the equity required for any project financing of either asset. Both assets are likely to require project financing, with plenty of debt and hopefully some government funding/guarantees, but still with the need for company to inject equity funding.

I could see a scenario where the new entity did a substantial capital raise upon re-listing meaning that Mkango's ownership of the new entity drops from c.80-90% to c.65-75%. I think it unlikely that they would go much lower than 65% given the desire to maintain majority control, and the need to give themselves a bit of a buffer to maintain control in the event of any further capital raises down the line. Will be fascinating to see the business combination agreement, which I am still expecting in the next 2-6 weeks.

Reading the messages over the weekend I'm not at all worried by the extension, which is a standard piece of admin given that May 11th is less than a week away and they haven't yet signed the combination agreement.

In terms of the extension timeline, if they have to go to the trouble of organising an EGM of course it makes sense for them to extend it for a similar amount of time to last time. This will avoid them asking for a short extension with the potential to miss the new deadline and have to come back for another EGM with egg on their face. Crucially, if they went for a short extension they would be putting themselves under timeline pressure completely unnecessarily, with the potential for Mkango to leverage this against them in final negotiations. Imo, no-one should read anything into the extension date other than that the business combination agreement is unlikely to be finalised before 11th May 2025 (this Sunday).

Thanks Bonker. I did some calcs last week applying (then) current Neodymium (Nd), Praseodymium (Pr), Terbium (Tb) and Dysprosium (Dy) to our DFS numbers for Songwe Hill. In the DFS the heavy REE (Tb and Dy which are now subject to Chinese export controls) made up around 12% of the main basket mix (Nd, Pr, Tb and Dy).

With pricing I was looking at last week (out of date now), Tb and Dy made up nearly 20% of the same mix. With the pricing quoted in the article Bonker linked they account for nearly 30% of the mix.

So while the Nd and Pr prices have fallen since the DFS, the increase in heavy REE Tb and Dy is offsetting this somewhat, and making up a larger and larger share of potential mine revenue. Dy prices have increased 45% since the DFS and Tb prices have increased 21%.

Https://www.mining.com/video/chinas-rare-earth-power-play-are-we-heading-for-another-price-shock/

Worth a watch, particularly for those who are newer to the rare earths sector.

Final attempt… shouldn’t have had that second beer.

The last bit should read - or if Chinese RE and RE magnet export restrictions are ended there will be a shortage of RE concentrate in China

Apologies, the last bit should read - or if Chinese RE and RE magnets are ended there will be a shortage of RE concentrate in China

I assume that a lack of RE concentrate supply in China leads to less processing of rare earths and RE magnets, reducing their supply and increasing their price? Basic supply/demand dynamics, or have I misinterpreted your post Gallmat?

Flloyd’s link says that this situation is being somewhat masked by the current restrictions on exports of Chinese processed RE and RE magnets. Either way MKA wins: if Chinese export restrictions continue, ex-China magnet customers will have to replace their Chinese supply chain (and they will be price takers); or if the Chinese export restrictions continue their will be a shortage of RE concentrate in China and the price of China supplied RE and RE magnets will increase, allowing Mkango to charge more for our products and still be competitive with Chinese prices.

You’re on fire with your recent research, thanks Floyd! This could really start feeding into RE and magnet pricing at the perfect time for our UK and German plants’ operational starts and our SPAC valuation and then listing.

From the delayed trades (buys), looks like someone took the opportunity to load up in volume. Good to see we have plenty of support at 17p+