The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
New note with audio summary from Equity Development here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/resilient-h1-performance-compelling-valuation
Vp traded resiliently through H1’24 against a backdrop of challenging macro-economic conditions, which impacted general construction and housebuilding activity, as previously communicated. Infrastructure demand remains supportive across water, transmission and rail, which are benefiting from long-term regulatory programmes (AMP7 for water and CP6 for rail). The Group’s overseas businesses have traded well, at levels ahead of H1 2023.
Vp’s medium term prospects look bright under the leadership of new CEO Anna Bielby and we make no changes to our forecasts.
In our view, Vp’s share price weakness over recent months overlooks the Group’s impressive track record of long-term growth, high returns and the successful navigation of previous economic cycles.
With the shares trading at a 50% discount to historic average trading multiples, we maintain our Fair Value estimate of £10.90 per share.
New business wins for both Labour Supply and Civils Projects divisions are encouraging
Equity Development see growth supported by the outlook for infrastructure spend, undersupply of skilled labour, and organic investment: 60p/share is their fair value.
Read new note here, free access:
https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/recent-newsflow-points-to-strength-in-diversity
The relative growth rate of IPX has been impressive, as has its net flow rate. After the Q4 AUM report Equity Dev's fundamental value/share falls to 800p, still well above a 454p close.
Read full new research note, hear summary at below, free access:
https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/sector-leading-growth-but-3rd-quartile-valuation
Link: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/eenergy-group-investor-presentation-with-qa-september-2023
eEnergy Group (AIM: EAAS) directors Harvey Sinclair (Chief Executive Officer) and Crispin Goldsmith (Chief Financial Officer) took investors through:
- highlights of the period which included continued strong organic growth
- ongoing demand and available capex from the customer base
- the focus on improving cash generation and working capital initiatives,
- the strategic options to strengthen the balance sheet to support further growth.
EAAS is a net zero energy services provider, and this presentation covers its results for the period to 30 June 2023.
The full video recording is available to watch at the above link, divided into chapters as below:
0:00:06 Key highlights
0:01:53 Customer Proposition & Revenue Model
0:06:55 Strong Growth Drivers
0:09:52 Financial highlights
0:12:56 Working Capital
0:16:25 Outlook
0:16:48 Summary
0:18:19 Questions & Answers
Link to research report & audio summary: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/driving-net-zero-through-innovation-and-technology
eEnergy is a leading B2B energy services business in the UK, supporting c.2,000 clients with their energy strategies across public and private sectors. We believe the energy crisis has combined with the Net Zero agenda to create a tipping point for action on energy security, costs, consumption and waste. After three years of significant growth and investment since listing on AIM, eEnergy looks ideally placed to play a leading role in the Net Zero transition. This is underpinned by a compelling proposition, which delivers energy efficiency upgrades that are paid for by the savings generated.
Today’s interims to 30th June (12-month period) confirm the continuing strength of demand, which we expect to drive sustained EBITDA growth and an improvement in free cashflow (estimated 10% free cash flow yield from 2025). In our view, medium term growth prospects are highly attractive and are not reflected in a very modest £20m market cap.
A modest P/E ratio (7.7x falling to 6.3x in FY24/FY25) appears to overlook the growth trajectory, with EBITDA expected to increase by 41% in 2023 and 30% in FY24 without factoring in the potential for M&A. A 7.5x EV/EBITDA rating would suggest Fair Value of 13p per share.
Trading update that Cohortp has further built its order book to £370m, giving 93% revenue cover. Our positive outlook remains unchanged, as does a Fair Value of 650p/share.
Read new note/hear summary:
https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/agm-update-on-growing-momentum-in-orders
Driver (LON:DRV) - Strategy on track, despite timing issues (new research report available here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/strategy-on-track-despite-timing-issues)
Driver Group has issued a trading update earlier than normal, citing a weak Q3 (reflecting a combination of timing issues and the later Easter) as reasons. Nevertheless, Q4 has witnessed a return to more normal patterns of trading and coupled with the rationalisation programme yet to impact results and the pipeline of orders looking more encouraging, we think the medium-term outlook appears favourable. The further improvement in net cash levels provides the Board with opportunities, not least in its capital allocation policy, including the further return of cash to shareholders. The NAV remains above the current share price.
We expect the NAV to decline modestly during H2, reflecting the slight reduction in profitability. However, at c.£15.8m / 29p per share, which is 8% above the current share price, this provides healthy support for the shares. With the current share price now below levels of previous buybacks and net cash higher during H2, we remain positive over the medium-term.
Reflecting the timing issues witnessed during H2, we reduce our fair value / share from 49p to 40p.
Supreme (LON:SUP) - AGM update - FY24 significantly ahead (new research report is here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/agm-update-fy24-significantly-ahead)
In today’s AGM statement, Supreme plc reported that the strong momentum evident in FY23 has continued into the first half, as a result of which the Group now expects revenue for FY24 to be in the range £195-£205m, with (adj.) EBITDA of £28-£30m. This guidance is up to 6% ahead of our previous revenue outlook of £193.5m and up to 17% above our (adj.) EBITDA estimate of £25.6m.
The Group notes that of the incremental £3.5m in (adj.) EBITDA - versus a prior market consensus of £26.5m - £2.0m arises from the distribution of Elf Bar branded vaping products, and the remaining £1.5m from other core operations.
Our Fair Value remains at 200p/share, indicative of a FY24 EV/EBITDA of 8.5x.
Corero Network Security plc (AIM: CNS), a leading provider of distributed denial of service ("DDoS") protection solutions, conducted an Investor Presentation covering their Interim Results for the six months ended 30th June 2023.
Jens Montanana, Executive Chairman and Phil Richards, Chief Financial Officer ran investors through highlights of the period which included double-digit growth in annual recurring revenues (ARR). The management discussed the strategic partnership with Akamai who have 20% market share of the DDoS market, and how this further strengthens confidence in Corero's products.
The full video has been divided into chapters as below:
0:00:20 Introduction to Corero
0:07:50 Financial Highlights & Summary
0:11:47 Strategic Update
0:17:02 Summary & Outlook
0:18:33 Questions & Answers
Link to video: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/corero-network-security-investor-presentation-interim-results-september-2023
The management of Springfield Properties, a leading housebuilder in Scotland focused on delivering private and affordable housing, conducted an investor presentation following the release of FY Results to 31 May 2023.
Sandy Adam (Chairman), Innes Smith (CEO) and Iain Logan (CFO) ran viewers through key highlights from the period, including a record year of completions and strong growth in private housing. Management also discussed the strength of their land bank and how they intend to use it to strengthen their balance sheet.
The full video has been divided into chapters as below:
0:00:00 Introduction to presenting team & Springfield Properties
0:01:03 Key summary points
0:06:40 Financial Review
0:15:21 Operational & Strategic Review
0:21:40 ESG
0:22:50 Conclusion
0:25:02 Questions & Answers
Link to video: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/springfield-properties-investor-presentation-fy-results-september-2023
"Beautiful products for every European home" - new Paris showroom (note and audio summary here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/beautiful-products-for-every-european-home)
UPGS today announced the opening of a new showroom in Paris, which will facilitate the expansion of its leading homeware brands not only into France but continental Europe overall. Furthermore, as demonstrated with Petra in Germany, stronger sales and an elevated business profile expands the scope to make growth-oriented acquisitions in the region.
We continue to place a fair value of 250p for UPGS’s shares, which in our view is reasonable given it implies 1.3x sales and 11x EV/EBITDA based on our FY2024 forecasts. Investors should also note that the company’s two most recent updates included better than expected outcomes on net debt and sales growth.
The Artisanal Spirits Company (AIM: ART), the owner of The Scotch Malt Whisky Society (SMWS), conducted a investor presentation following the release of their Interim Results for the six months ended 30th June 2023.
Andrew Dane (Chief Executive Officer) and Billy McCarter (Chief Financial Officer) discussed the growing opportunity in the Far East, including Taiwan and Korea, a new route to market in the form of casks, and their confidence in reaching EBITDA profitability at the full year. Management also answered a wide range of questions from investors.
The full video has been dividend into chapters as below:
0:00:03 Introduction & key points summary
0:04:05 KPIs and Financials
0:08:48 Pioneering Model
0:15:02 Long term global growth opportunity
0:16:25 Robust business primed to deliver
0:21:12 Current trading & Outlook
0:23:24 Questions & Answers
Link to video: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/the-artisanal-spirits-company-investor-presentation-interimresults-sept2023
We hosted an investor presentation with the senior management of Strix Group plc, where Mark Bartlett (CEO), Raudres Wong (CFO) and Harry Kyriacou (CCO & Managing Director, Consumer Goods) discussed:
- the performance in Kettle Controls where improvement is slower than anticipated
- the transformational and EBITDA contributing acquisition of Billi
- highlighted the plan to reduce net debt / EBITDA to below 1.5x in the medium term
- discussed areas of new product development
- outlined revenue & gross profit projections for each business unit out to 2026.
Strix Group is the global leader in the design, manufacture and supply of kettle safety controls and other complementary water temperature management components. Management were discussing their Interim Results to the period ended 30 June 2023, and the strategic business objectives for the group to end 2026 as outlined in their Capital Markets Day.
The video has been divided into chapters as below:
0:00:00 Introduction
0:00:30 H1 highlights in detail
0:10:29 Financials
0:20:33 Business Categories
0:27:38 Outlook
0:30:16 Strategic Business Objectives (SBOs)
0:32:54 Group financials
0:35:40 Strix Kettle Controls
0:42:05 Billi
0:48:25 Consumer Goods
1:03:05 Human Resource Strategy & ESG
1:10:45 Summary
1:12:07 Questions & Answers
Link to video: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/strix-group-investor-presentation-and-capital-markets-day-september-2023
EEnergy (AIM: EAAS), the net zero energy services provider, is pleased to conduct an online investor presentation covering its results for the period to 30 June 2023.
The event will take place at 3.30pm on Thursday 28th September.
Harvey Sinclair (Chief Executive Officer) and Crispin Goldsmith (Chief Financial Officer) will be hosting the presentation and answering questions submitted by investors. The webinar is open to all existing and potential shareholders, and registration is free. You can sign up to register at the below link.
Sign up here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/news-and-events/eaas-investor-presentation-28sept2023
There were few surprises in Destiny Pharma’s interim results as the recent achievements on its two lead Phase 3-ready products had previously been announced. We have made minor changes to our forecasts but none to our valuation as a result of the interims.
Destiny’s new CEO delivered a polished and knowledgeable presentation only twelve days into the job handling analysts’ questions with ease and delegating to Destiny’s CFO and CSO where appropriate. We have delved into the details of the analysts’ meeting in the body of this note (see PDF below for full details).
Link to research report: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/xf-73-3-the-competition-0
In today's H1 results Corero Network Security
- delivered double digit growth in order intake, revenue and ARR
- they don't need to come back to the market for more funding and
- have attractive operational gearing.
In our valuation:
- we assume a conservative 10% rev growth rate in FY23/FY24 (below both historical growth rates for CNS AND market forecasts
- We don't factor in any contribution from major new partnership agreements like the one from Akamai which should have a material impact
Our fair value is double the current share price
Full note here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/double-digit-arr-growth
Tough update from Strix (LON:KETL) today as profitability has declined on all measures.
- customers ordering frequently but in lower volumes
- dividend reduced to focus on reduction of debt
- The £6m reduction in Kettle Controls EBITDA offset the £5.2m contribution of Billi.
There is a CMD to accommpany results and this includes several new strategic objectives, with a plan to the end of FY26. The goals are:
- an uplift in revenues between FY22 and FY26 of 93% to £206m
- gross profit to £80m, equating to an unchanged margin of 38.8%.
Full note here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/recovery-slow-new-strategy-in-place
Springfield’s results to May ’23 are in line with expectations, confirming a record year of completions despite a challenging market backdrop. Decisive action has been taken to reduce costs (£4m annualised savings) and the main focus for FY24 is cash generation, which should result in a meaningful reduction in net debt by the year end. Whilst the broader market outlook remains uncertain in the near term, we are encouraged by recent developments in Affordable housing (increase in Scottish Government Affordable Housing Investment Benchmarks) and remain confident in the Group’s long term growth prospects, which are underpinned by the large land bank and a very strong market position (top three builder in Scotland).
As of 31st May, the Group had 6,712 owned plots and strategic options over a further 3,255 acres (equivalent of a further 33,000 plots). The gross development of the owned landbank is c.£1.9bn, providing firm underpinning for long term shareholder value. We recently initiated coverage (An undervalued, high quality growth story) and continue to see scope for a material re-rating of the shares. Our Fair Value / share is 110p, based on an undemanding rating of 0.9x Price/ Book.
Link to full research report & audio summary: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/results-in-line-prioritising-cash-generation-in-fy24
Mattioli Woods plc (AIM: MTW.L), the specialist Wealth and Asset Management business, conducted an investor presentation by Webinar after their final results for the year ended 31st May 2023.
Ian Mattioli, MBE (Chief Executive Officer), Ravi Tara (Chief Financial Officer) and Michael Wright (Deputy CEO) ran investors through the purpose of Mattioli Woods and a review of financial period highlights - which included an increase in Assets Under Management and revenue, as well high ongoing levels of cash generation. Management discussed their organic growth initiatives, their integrated model and strategic plan, before answering a wide range of questions from viewers.
The full video has been divided into chapters as below:
0:00:00 Beginning & Agenda
0:00:29 Purpose (Ian Mattioli, CEO)
0:13:29 Highlights & Financial Overview (Ravi Tara, CFO)
0:28:22 Market opportunity, strategic plan, capacity for growth (Michael Wright, Deputy CEO)
0:49:57 Investment Case & Conclusion
0:54:49 Questions & Answers
Full video presentation: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/mattioli-woods-investor-presentation-fy-results-september-2023
Brooks Macdonald Group plc, the AIM-listed investment management group, conducted an online presentation for investors following the release of their Full Year results to 30 June 2023.
Andrew Shepherd, CEO and Andrea Montague, CFO took investors through their continuing strategic progress underlined by strong financial performance, despite challenging market conditions. Highlights of the year included positive net flows, an increased dividend and two completed acquisitions. Management also updated investors on the progress of their growth strategy, and answered a range of questions from viewers.
The full video has been divided into chapters as below:
0:00:00 Beginning & Agenda
0:00:19 Highlights of the Financial Year (CEO, Andrew Shepherd)
0:04:00 Financial Results (CFO, Andrea Montague)
0:11:06 Update on strategy delivery
0:26:46 FY guidance & looking ahead
0:29:06 Questions & Answers
See video here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/investor-presentation-september-2023-fy-results-presentation