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Part 2 Continued.....

Disclaimer: These are just my personal thoughts & opinions based on publicly available info. Not financial advice. Always do your own DD. I hold 1,315,000 CREO shares.

3. The Math: The Path to Profitability (The J-Curve)

The "Bear Case" relies on historical cash burn, but the numbers show we have hit the inflection point. This is driven by Operational Leverage:

• Revenue Velocity: FY25 H2 revenue surged 58% to £3.8m.

• Cost Discipline: Underlying OpEx was "right-sized" with a 20% reduction to £18.4m.

• The Logic: The company does not need to cut further; it simply needs to grow into its fixed cost base. As revenue scales toward a £25m–£30m run-rate* (fueled by the NICE mandate and robotic royalties), the stable cost base allows Gross Profits to bridge the gap. Mathematically, the "crossover point" to self-sustaining cash flow is visible by late 2026/Jan 2027.

• *Note: Revenue run-rate figures are forward-looking projections based on the current 58% H2 growth trajectory and 60% target margins.

4. The £1bn+ Buyout Potential

Analyst price targets sit between 40p and 70p, with a peak valuation of 102p per share (£419m market cap) suggested by Edison Group analysts once profitability is proven.

• M&A Logic: High-growth, high-IP MedTech carries a 10x revenue multiple. As Creo approaches a £100m run-rate, a £1bn+ valuation is entirely consistent with sector precedents (e.g., Johnson & Johnson’s $13.1bn Shockwave acquisition).

Summary: I believe the stock is deeply undervalued and waiting for the market to price in the "J-curve." For those underwater, the disconnect between the ~14.5p price and the 24p insider floor represents a significant opportunity.

Part 1

Disclaimer: These are just my personal thoughts & opinions based on publicly available info. Not financial advice. Always do your own DD. I hold 1,315,000 CREO shares.

TL;DR Summary:

• Insane Entry Price: Buying at ~14.5p is a 40% discount to the Chairman’s anchor investment (24p).

• The NICE Catalyst: NICE hand-picked Speedboat to optimize NHS resources; legal mandate for funding expected Nov 19, 2026.

• Technical Moat: Only tech to beat the "heat-sink" effect in lung/liver; 400+ patent moat.

• The Math: 58% H2 revenue growth hitting a stabilized cost base makes a Jan 2027 breakeven a mathematical probability.

Full Analysis:

The current share price of ~14.5p is fundamentally broken and presents an absurd disconnect from operational reality. For private investors with a 12-24 month view, this is a classic "inflection point" setup.

1. The Technology Moat: Why it's "Best-in-Class"

Creo isn't competing on price; they're competing on physics. Their Kamaptive platform is the only tech that miniaturizes microwave and RF energy into a single, tiny device.

• The "Heat-Sink" Advantage: Competitors use RF energy, which fails in highly vascularized tissue (lung/liver) because blood flow cools the area (the "heat-sink effect"). Creo's 5.8GHz microwave energy avoids this, making it the superior clinical tool.

• The NICE Selection: NICE specifically selected Speedboat Inject because they identified it as a key technology to ensure the "best use of NHS resources."

• Proven Savings: Real-world data showed the Speedboat procedure reduced hospital stays from 8.4 days to 1.1 days, saving the NHS nearly £5,000 per procedure.

2. The Insider Signal: A Valuation Floor

Chairman Kevin Crofton, who delivered a $2.3bn exit at his last company, put over £1 million of his own cash into CREO in 2024/2025.

• His initial anchor entry was 24p (£700k invested).

• Buying at ~14.5p is a 40% discount to the Chairman’s primary entry price. If the man tasked with delivering the exit is buying at these levels, the current ~£58m market cap is an anomaly.

Continued......

@Jonah58 thanks for that.

I was looking to establish what the share price would be based on my worst case assumptions drop in PGM prices and if its higher than current price then I would continue to hold until more copper or cobalt comes on line.

@gotreal, your right cobalt is there, again wanted to see what the price would be without, purely as a potential confidence booster.

@shuvlin

"Your posts reported"

If you are referring to my posts, I have to laugh. I can understand people nursing loses can get defensive, that doesn't help anyone. I Hope you are having a better day :)

@Shareswotter

£1 :)))))))))

I am actually feeling confidence about JLP.

@shuvlin

"All hypothetical", what do you think all this is? :)))))

You did not have to reply and fill the board to say you do not want to are cannot help with my question, if everyone did that on this board it would be.................

Can anyone help with the below?

What would the share price be assuming Jubilee delivered the following at year end June 2024?

1. 38,000 PGM ounces (oz) at current prices

2. 10,000 tonnes of copper sold at $7,900 per tonne and cost of production at $5,500 per tonne

3. 1.2 million tonnes of chrome concentrate at current prices

4. All other costs based on current

And for those who are being extremely defensive.

1. 44,000 PGM ounces (oz) at current prices

2. 12,000 tonnes of copper sold at $8,500 per tonne and cost of production at $5,500 per tonne

3. 1.6 million tonnes of chrome concentrate at current prices

4. All other costs based on current

Thanks

@SeisNav dont focus on the past or any previous posts you sound defensive doesn't help any type of investor.

Before anyone asks I have 375,000 shares in JLP.

Can you or anyone else help me with my question and not what else it could be.

What would the share price be assuming Jubilee delivered the following at year end June 2024?

1. 38,000 PGM ounces (oz) at current prices

2. 10,000 tonnes of copper sold at $7,900 per tonne and cost of production at $5,500 per tonne

3. 1.2 million tonnes of chrome concentrate at current prices

4. All other costs based on current

Thanks

Because I belive in what Jubilee is doing but would like some help.

And it really annoys me (understated) that when someone asks for help, they get a question in return, not relevant to the question.

So is there anyone else out there who can answer the question below. And it could be the person who replied.

What would the share price be assuming Jubilee delivered the following at year end June 2024?

1. 38,000 PGM ounces (oz) at current prices

2. 10,000 tonnes of copper sold at $7,900 per tonne and cost of production at $5,500 per tonne

3. 1.2 million tonnes of chrome concentrate at current prices

4. All other costs based on current

Thanks

Hi, all

I recently bought into Jubilee.

If anyone can help with the following.

What would the share price be assuming Jubilee delivered the following at year end June 2024?

1. 38,000 PGM ounces (oz) at current prices

2. 10,000 tonnes of copper sold at $7,900 per tonne and cost of production at $5,500 per tonne

3. 1.2 million tonnes of chrome concentrate at current prices

4. All other costs based on current

Thanks

I am a metallurgist and have to say from what I have researched on Jubilee and from what I can see what the company has done to date, is doing and planning to do, its a company that has excellent IP more importantly super execution considering all the headwinds operating in geographical jurisdictions where water, power and political issues are pressing.

Looking at the fundamentals of Jubilee and IP execution even with the water and power issues due to lack of contingency foresight but more than balanced out with the lessons learnt and addressing the root causes in a timely manner.

I will be investing in Jubilee and MM's mean nothing this company has proved the scientific experiment and is making money.

You have to buy and hold for at least 3/4 years considerably less if you only want to double your money because when this jumps, we all do not want to get into a share that has doubled in months, but that's just it that’s probably what’s going to happen.

This board itself is not bad but like most boards there will be individuals not looking at fundamentals, IP, IP execution based on IP complexity.

For me this is an excellent company and again in my corporate experience it’s rare to have a CEO who is a material scientist/metallurgist with concept, strategic, design, manufacturing and IP delivery skills like Leon Coetzer.

So good luck all traders, long term, day, short term, chartist and those that just want to get in at a lower price.

@buttermilk

Hello,

New to this board thinking of buying in.

What selling pressure?

Almost 3 Bil shares in circulation and 654,822 sold today?

Please can you elaborate on the turd?

Thanks

@BushyTailed

Hello,

Strong sell signal triggered today by who?

Https://researchanalyst.com/en/report/tui-ag-last-minute-bargain-or-bottomless-pit

Https://researchanalyst.com/en/report/tui-ag-last-minute-bargain-or-bottomless-pit

@mikes02
Regarding your reply below.

3. Unless I'm mis-reading your final point about reset 1 - you've quoted the RI price exactly, so suggest this shows that those responsible for setting the RI price got it spot on?
What you and C constantly miss is:

You finally get how they got to the RI price by completely wiping off £1.6bn raised from the RI. Which means its dead money and a value trap of £1.6bn.

Below is my opinion based on information available online. You should do your own research before investing.

TUI is probably a value trap, overvalued and is a highly speculative investment even after the recent rights issue number??? (RI), due to its excessive debt of £2.1bn vs MCAP of £2.55bn and interest cost circa £378m which takes a huge amount out of earnings per share.
Total shares before the RI 178.5m
Total shares after the RI 507m
The £1.6bn raised from the RI for investors holding shares before the RI has been a donation and not an investment as it was used to pay for people sitting at home and assets doing very little during the pandemic years and not for growth. That is why you have seen a dramatic fall and a semi reset of TUI valuation. Having said that there theoretically should be a reduction of circa £70m in interest cost post RI. So, donate £1.6bn, get back £70m, huge share price value drop and share dilution, this isn’t investing its a nightmare. Why it was overvalued before the RI I don't know, but the evidence as can be seen in the fall of the share price is clear to see. I really do feel for those who are heavily down and this must resonate with them.
For those who are scratching their heads why their investment in TUI has crashed so much when they have donated £1.6bn below may shed some light in a different way and why the TERP price means nothing really.
TUI Share Price as of 27-Mar-2023, XETRA close £13.83 (€15.72)
MCAP pre-RI £2.469bn
RI £1.6bn donation
MCAP pre-RI – RI donation (dead money) = New MCAP pre-RI £869m
New MCAP pre-RI £869m ÷ 178.5m = £4.87 per share
So, if you take out £1.6bn RI donation as dead money and assume true value of shares pre rights should have been £4.87.
Then current value could be derived as ((£4.87 x 3) + (£4.89 × 8)) ÷ 11 = £4.88 so let's call this reset share price 'ONE'.
I have done the calculation this way to show the value trap of £1.6bn.
I believe the TERP value means nothing, people should stop getting distracted by TERP.

I believe TUI has further to fall before it is out of the trap and that there will be another share price reset ‘TWO’

In my opinion TUI is going to drop to the low end of £4 or below.

Hi avocet123,

Regarding your post below.
Who do you think paid for all the value added items you mention in your post below? And how much was paid for items nothing to do with TUI?

Sounds like people are writing some of the reasons why TUI has been a Value Trap and still probably is........

C26 have you paid any attention? This debt is a result of COVID. You remember? It's an extraordinary event. Its nothing to do tui's with day to day operational debt.
That's why it needed to be paid off. Seriously you are a bit dim.

This ship is going down for a lot of reasons including the weight of possibly another rights issue passengers on board in 2024 to further bring down the high debt of £2.1bn vs market cap of 2.6bn. Those who have been supporting and donating their funds to pay for idle ships and people doing nothingduring the pandemic know what I am talking about, its that sinking feeling.
Overvalued share in my opinion.
Below £5 on its way.

Golitha, Seriously please enlighten me and the rest if the board?

Hi, I have read it there is nothing skewed just analysis for people to make their own minds and my P/E did not just focus on one skewed area.

Any way let's see what happens.

Good luck

Hi Golitha

I can understand your defensive position, your frustration if you are invested and if you are suffering huge losses.

Just look at what's happened to the share price over the years and still happening you don't need to read my post for that.

People will make their own minds up based on fundamentals and not it will be OK hang in there.

I think to be fair to all on the board could you please present your perspective based on fundamentals.

Thanks

Ps I forgot to mention in my post the short positions on the stock to the headwinds list.......