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Part 9 of 11

9. MicroBlate Fine: The "Category of One" Opportunity

This is a game-changing device that truly represents a "Category of One" opportunity and a future catalyst for the share price.

• Market Monopoly: It is the world’s only 19-gauge less than 1mm microwave ablation needle. It is the only device thin enough to destroy pancreatic and liver tumors internally via standard Endoscopic Ultrasound (EUS), avoiding invasive surgery.

• High-Margin "Razor/Blade" Model: This drives recurring revenue via single-use needles (approx. £500 per unit) powered by the existing CROMA platform.

• Strategic Roadmap: It is currently in Limited Market Release (LMR) at elite global sites to establish the clinical "gold standard." Its transition to Full Commercial Launch in 2028.

• Clinical Proof: Initial human cases for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors showed 100% successful ablation and zero major complications, proving the tech works in high-risk anatomy.

• The Bottom Line: MicroBlate Fine transforms high-risk surgery into a routine outpatient procedure. It owns a technological niche that no competitor can currently enter.

Disclaimer: These are personal thoughts & opinions based on publicly available info. Not financial advice. Always do your own DD and consult a professional. I hold 1,485,000 CREO shares.

Part 4 of 11

5. Predator Urgency & the £1bn+ Valuation: The Path to Re-rating

The current share price of ~14p fundamentally ignores the true strategic value of Creo's assets. A predator's (Medtronic, Boston Scientific, Johnson & Johnson, Intuitive Surgical, CMR Surgical) interest is in long-term, multi-billion-dollar market access and IP, not today's P&L statement.

The path to a £1bn+ valuation uses M&A math, which is different from standard analyst forecasts:

• Analyst Price Targets (The Floor): Analyst price targets sit between 40p and 70p. Edison Group analysts suggested a peak valuation of 102p per share (£419m market cap) once profitability is proven. This is the market's current conservative "floor".

• The M&A Strategic Premium (The Ceiling): The £1bn+ valuation is achieved when a predator applies a much higher premium for strategic control. A predator benefits significantly by acquiring now to gain a market and IP monopoly:

o Intuitive Surgical (The Integration Gap): Intuitive dominates robotic surgery but has historically relied on third-party energy tools. Acquiring Creo would allow them to own the entire "Search & Destroy" procedure (diagnosis + ablation) "in a single sitting," a major goal for robotic surgery, and integrate Creo's technology like the MicroBlate Flex into its ION and flagship da Vinci platforms.

o Medtronic (The Vascular "Heat-Sink" Gap): Medtronic is a leader in advanced energy with its LigaSure (RF) products. Standard RF ablation is limited by the "heat-sink" effect, where blood flow cools tissue and prevents tumor destruction. Creo's 5.8GHz microwave energy is largely unaffected by blood flow, providing a "gold standard" tool for abating tumors in highly vascularized organs like the liver and pancreas where Medtronic's current tools often fall short. This is achieved using the world’s only 19-gauge less than 1mm) microwave ablation needle, MicroBlate Fine, the only device thin enough to destroy pancreatic and liver tumors internally via standard Endoscopic Ultrasound (EUS), avoiding invasive surgery.

o Boston Scientific (High-Growth Adjacency): Boston Scientific has an established position in interventional oncology and is actively pursuing acquisitions to expand into new high-growth segments and compete with Medtronic. Creo's unique energy platform and product pipeline perfectly align with BSX's strategy of M&A for "high-growth adjacency" markets where they have a limited presence today.

o CMR Surgical (Robotic Energy Gap): CMR is a major global player in robotic surgery with its Versius system. Their primary focus is on the robotic platform itself rather than advanced energy tools. They have a licensing agreement with Creo; an acquisition would allow them to own "best-in-class" energy and prevent competitors from doing the same.

Disclaimer: These are personal thoughts & opinions based on publicly available info. Not financial advice. Always do your own DD and consult a professional. I hold 1,

There seems to be an issue posting 9 of 11 here is the rest

• Market Monopoly: It is the world’s only 19-gauge (

Here is the full version of Part 9 of 11

Part 9 of 11

9. MicroBlate Fine: The "Category of One" Opportunity

This is a game-changing device that truly represents a "Category of One" opportunity and a future catalyst for the share price.

• Market Monopoly: It is the world’s only 19-gauge (

Part 11 of 11

Summary:

The analysis in this post perfectly lays out the 'Ghost of Creo Past.' But my view is that we are at the precipice of 'Creo Future,' where the RNS transparency improves, some of the IP value is unlocked by the NICE mandate (which is a 'when' not an 'if'), and we hit the J-curve. I hold a very high conviction that the current price fundamentally undervalues the company's prospects.

The company is now firmly moving from an R&D entity to a commercial one. Time will tell if management finally delivers, but the data points for a turnaround are stronger than ever.

The current share price of ~14p is a reflection of the analyst consensus, combined with high market perception of risk, a liquidity discount, and widespread assumption of future dilution. This entirely ignores the intrinsic value of the £26.9m stake and its cash-generative benefits from the Creo Medical Europe (CME) joint venture, which solidify our 'Fortress Balance Sheet'. My 'J-curve' analysis is ahead of this curve; I believe our (self-funding debt/dividend model from CME) will accelerate profitability by December 2027, closing that valuation gap rapidly and commanding a premium for completely removing the doubt of dilution and reflecting the high probability of a predator buyout.

The additional, pure-profit royalty payments (Intuitive/CMR), the MicroBlate Flex US commercial opportunity including da Vinci integration, the new MicroBlate Fine catalyst, and the bipolar range (Speedboat, SpydrBlade, etc.) further support this timeline to December 2027, and “with a little bit of wind in our sails we could be quiet ahead of that”.

Ultimately, let's not forget that beyond the balance sheet, Creo’s technology is changing and saving people's lives every day. That is the most enduring value of all. It’s going to be a very interesting April.

Disclaimer: These are personal thoughts & opinions based on publicly available info. Not financial advice. Always do your own DD and consult a professional. I hold 1,485,000 CREO shares.

Part 10 of 11

10. External DCF Models Reinforce the Undervaluation

The argument for undervaluation extends beyond internal analysis: even external, conservative discounted cash flow (DCF) models consistently produce a share price far exceeding the current ~14p. Some private valuations on boards using robust models have even placed fair value around 43p based on conservative £26m revenue estimates for FY28.

• Conservative Estimates: Independent models using a high WACC (15%) and a subjective "UK discount" still arrive at a share price valuation between 47p and 55p.

• The Disconnect: This substantial gap highlights the market's current fixation on "risk" and "past performance." These models reinforce the argument that the fundamental, de-risked value of the company is already three to four times the current share price.

• Missing the "J-Curve" Catalysts: Standard DCF models struggle to accurately price in the rapid adoption that catalysts like the US CPT code will cause. The CPT code alone can nearly quadruple a physician's revenue for Speedboat procedures, creating a "pull" from the US market that is difficult to model today but impossible to ignore as a value driver.

11. Upcoming Catalysts & Dates

Key dates for investors to watch include the full-year results for FY25, expected in April 2026, and the half-yearly results for H1 2026, forecast for September 2026. The NICE process for GID-MT602 is ongoing, and you can monitor progress and typical committee meeting dates via their project page.

Disclaimer: These are personal thoughts & opinions based on publicly available info. Not financial advice. Always do your own DD and consult a professional. I hold 1,485,000 CREO shares.

Part 9 of 11

9. MicroBlate Fine: The "Category of One" Opportunity

This is a game-changing device that truly represents a "Category of One" opportunity and a future catalyst for the share price.

• Market Monopoly: It is the world’s only 19-gauge (

Part 8 of 11

8. Royalty Streams (Pure Profit) & MicroBlate Flex ‘The Wind in Our Sails’

It is critical to remember that both commercial sales and licensing agreements represent a significant amount of "wind in our sails" and high-margin potential.

• MicroBlate Flex (Commercial Sales): The lung device is purchased commercially for an estimated £5,700 per unit. Revenue from this has a margin well over 60%. Importantly, it is already being sold commercially on an individual basis at the Royal Brompton Hospital. A total of six sites are expected to run in the UK and Europe under the Pioneer Programme to gather clinical evidence ahead of a full commercial launch. A further 1 site is expected to go commercial sales in H1-26. The device is also approved for use in the USA, where the market presents a substantial opportunity for growth. The Intuitive ION partnership also has the potential for expanded scope into the high-growth APAC market. Intuitive Surgical recently announced its FY25 results, stating that ION procedures grew c51% in the year. This procedure growth highlights the immense potential of the US lung tumor opportunity, which is currently not factored into most P&L analyst reports. We should start to see the pull from Intuitive via their sales channels in 2026/2027.

• Royalty Streams (Pure Profit): Royalty and licensing agreements have been been signed with both Intuitive Surgical and CMR Surgical. While specific commercial terms remain undisclosed in RNS statements, these are virtually 100% margin incomes that add immense pressure on potential predators to act now, as they would want to limit the licensing of Creo's "best in class" advanced energy to their competitors.

Disclaimer: These are personal thoughts & opinions based on publicly available info. Not financial advice. Always do your own DD and consult a professional. I hold 1,485,000 CREO shares.

Part 7 of 11

7. The NHS / NICE Mandate: The "Streeting Factor" & High Probability of Rapid Adoption

This isn't just about clinical guidelines; it's about a legal and political mandate for funding that creates a perfect storm for rapid adoption. For independent verification, you can review the official NICE project page for the Creo Speedboat (GID-MT602) here: www.nice.org.uk.

• The NICE Catalyst: NICE hand-picked Speedboat to optimize NHS resources; a legal mandate for funding is expected around November 19, 2026.

• Proven Savings: Real-world data showed the Speedboat procedure reduced hospital stays from 8.4 days to 1.1 days, saving the NHS nearly £5,000 per procedure.

• The "Streeting Factor" (Why Enforcement is Guaranteed): Wes Streeting has explicitly stated the NHS must 'reform or die,' tying future funding to productivity gains. Under this 'Value for Money' framework, a Trust refusing to adopt a NICE-mandated, cost-saving technology like Speedboat isn't just ignoring a guideline—they are actively defying the government’s core strategy. This creates:

o Contractual & Legal Breach: The NHS Standard Contract mandates compliance with the MedTech Funding Mandate (MTFM). Refusal is a breach of contract with financial penalties.

o No Local Veto: The MTFM policy is clear: local 'affordability' is not an excuse because the tech is proven to be cost-saving.

o The 90-Day Clock: The Health and Social Care Act creates a statutory obligation for funding to be available within 90 days of a NICE publication.

By February 2027, the adoption of Creo's technology isn't just expected—it is contractually and legally mandated, acting as a massive 'adoption accelerator.'

Disclaimer: These are personal thoughts & opinions based on publicly available info. Not financial advice. Always do your own DD and consult a professional. I hold 1,485,000 CREO shares.

Part 6 of 11

6. The Insider Signal & Political Pressure

Crofton’s primary "skin in the game" comes from his personal investments rather than his salary. The disconnect between Kevin Crofton’s £1.1m personal investment and the current ~14p price provides a clear valuation floor. Since joining in July 2024, he has purchased over £1 million in shares using his own funds, signaling a commitment far beyond his £64k annual fee. His initial anchor entry was 24p (£700k invested), meaning the current price is a 40% discount to his main entry point. A man who delivered a $2.3bn exit at SPTS did not invest his own capital to wait for a distant FY28/FY29 timeline. He is signaling the 2026/2027 rapid inflection point is imminent. This signal reinforces my personal high conviction in this company.

The AMA CPT reimbursement code is a key part of this inflection point. Physicians who may earn $300 for a standard colonoscopy could earn over $1,000 for the procedures Speedboat enables. This massive financial incentive for the US private market will encourage rapid training and adoption as the code comes into effect in January 2027.

Furthermore, the NICE Catalyst is another powerful accelerator. A legal mandate for funding is expected around November 19, 2026. This was based on real-world data showing significant reductions in hospital stays and costs per procedure. Wes Streeting's political pressure makes this a powerful adoption accelerator.

Disclaimer: These are personal thoughts & opinions based on publicly available info. Not financial advice. Always do your own DD and consult a professional. I hold 1,485,000 CREO shares.

Part 5 of 11

o Olympus (The Miniature Energy & Scissor Gap): Olympus is the world leader in GI endoscopy but lacks a miniaturized, multimodal energy platform for precise cutting (RF) and deep ablation (Microwave) through a single port. The SpydrBlade Flex—only flexible multi-modal scissor integrating advanced bipolar RF cutting and 5.8GHz microwave sealing in one tool—fills this technical and product gap, replicating laparoscopic "cut and seal" functionality through a standard endoscope.

o De-risked Market Access: They gain immediate, de-risked access to the high-growth APAC market via the NMPA access and a guaranteed NHS market via the impending NICE mandate.

o US Financial Incentive: The American Medical Association (AMA) has cleared the way for a specific CPT reimbursement code for the lower/upper GI procedures that Speedboat was designed for. This is a great step that incentivizes the private US healthcare market to adopt this tech rapidly.

o M&A Logic: High-growth, high-IP MedTech carries a 10x revenue multiple. As Creo approaches a £100m run-rate, a £1bn+ valuation is entirely consistent with sector precedents (e.g., Johnson & Johnson’s $13.1bn Shockwave acquisition, which was valued at a 17x revenue multiple).

It is in a predator's interest to strike now at full value, before the financial J-curve is proven. The strategic value is £1bn+. By acquiring now, they capture that accelerated profit surge and competitive advantage.

Disclaimer: These are personal thoughts & opinions based on publicly available info. Not financial advice. Always do your own DD and consult a professional. I hold 1,485,000 CREO shares.

Part 4 of 11

5. Predator Urgency & the £1bn+ Valuation: The Path to Re-rating

The current share price of ~14p fundamentally ignores the true strategic value of Creo's assets. A predator's (Medtronic, Boston Scientific, Johnson & Johnson, Intuitive Surgical, CMR Surgical) interest is in long-term, multi-billion-dollar market access and IP, not today's P&L statement.

The path to a £1bn+ valuation uses M&A math, which is different from standard analyst forecasts:

• Analyst Price Targets (The Floor): Analyst price targets sit between 40p and 70p. Edison Group analysts suggested a peak valuation of 102p per share (£419m market cap) once profitability is proven. This is the market's current conservative "floor".

• The M&A Strategic Premium (The Ceiling): The £1bn+ valuation is achieved when a predator applies a much higher premium for strategic control. A predator benefits significantly by acquiring now to gain a market and IP monopoly:

o Intuitive Surgical (The Integration Gap): Intuitive dominates robotic surgery but has historically relied on third-party energy tools. Acquiring Creo would allow them to own the entire "Search & Destroy" procedure (diagnosis + ablation) "in a single sitting," a major goal for robotic surgery, and integrate Creo's technology like the MicroBlate Flex into its ION and flagship da Vinci platforms.

o Medtronic (The Vascular "Heat-Sink" Gap): Medtronic is a leader in advanced energy with its LigaSure (RF) products. Standard RF ablation is limited by the "heat-sink" effect, where blood flow cools tissue and prevents tumor destruction. Creo's 5.8GHz microwave energy is largely unaffected by blood flow, providing a "gold standard" tool for abating tumors in highly vascularized organs like the liver and pancreas where Medtronic's current tools often fall short. This is achieved using the world’s only 19-gauge (

Part 3 of 11

• Precision via Robotic Integration (The "GPS" for the Lung): The MicroBlate Flex is the only ultra-thin microwave probe validated for the Intuitive Ion robotic platform, solving the "last centimeter" problem. Integration allows for digital tomosynthesis, which corrects for "CT-to-Body Divergence" (when the tumor moves as the patient breathes). This ensures the probe stays on target. Robotic Stability: Robotic "lock-on" technology achieves a targeting accuracy of 97%, ensuring energy is delivered exactly to the malignancy while sparing healthy surrounding tissue.

• The Commercial Maths: A 285% Procedure Revenue Lift (£): At a market price of £5,700 per probe, the MicroBlate Flex transforms the economics of the robotic suite. A standard diagnostic biopsy generates ~£2,000 in disposables. Adding the £5,700 MicroBlate probe brings the total disposable revenue to £7,700 per patient—a 285% increase in revenue per robotic session. TAM Expansion (The Inoperable Market): For the 20% of lung cancer patients too frail for the "gold standard" surgery, this combination is the only curative-intent option, massively expanding the Total Addressable Market (TAM). Growth Potential: At a moderate adoption rate of 50,000 procedures annually, probe sales alone generate £285,000,000 in high-margin recurring revenue.

• Scaling to the Flagship: The "da Vinci" Factor: The most significant upside is the potential migration of MicroBlate Flex to the flagship da Vinci platform, which has an installed base of over 11,100 systems globally. This dramatically expands access to the global lung cancer market (an estimated 2.5m new cases annually). The £1 Billion Opportunity: If utilized in just 10% of these annual lung cancer cases, the recurring revenue potential from the probe alone exceeds £1.4 Billion annually.

• The Buyout Logic: A Strategic Necessity for Intuitive: As the 2026 commercial rollout accelerates, a buyout of Creo Medical by Intuitive Surgical is seen as a strategic imperative. Monopoly Defense: There is currently no other validated microwave probe that fits the Ion’s ultra-thin architecture. Intuitive must own the technology to prevent rivals from acquiring it. Margin Capture: Intuitive currently "leaves money on the table" by sharing the £5,700 probe revenue. By acquiring Creo and the Kamaptive energy platform, Intuitive captures 100% of the profit and fully integrates "Search & Destroy" into its global surgical ecosystem.

Disclaimer: These are personal thoughts & opinions based on publicly available info. Not financial advice. Always do your own DD and consult a professional. I hold 1,485,000 CREO shares.

Part 2 of 11

They are actively engaged in introducing the entire range of products (including the CROMA system) into China. These numbers are currently not baked into Creo’s expectations and guidance to the market. Furthermore, Micro-Tech together with other companies will ultimately be our manufacturing partner, moving significant product volume away from exclusive in-house manufacturing over the next few years. Partnering with Micro-Tech—the market leader in China with a 30% share—gives Creo 'best-in-class' access to NMPA (China's FDA) registrations. As Micro-Tech aggressively grows the business by bringing in new products at factory prices, the stake transforms into a high-yield dividend engine. We already saw the start of this in the FY25 Interims, which recognized a £0.4m profit share from the associate; significantly, this only covered a partial 4.5-month period following the deal completion in February. As this annualizes and scales, we are sitting on a significant share of future cashflows that the market is overlooking.

• The Debt 'Safety Valve' (A Self-Funding Model): We need to secure a managed drawdown facility as a pure safety net, where interest is only paid on funds actually deployed. This facility is expected to be used as a last resort, satisfying market and investor doubts to completely price out the risk of dilution. Crucially, the cost of setting up this 'belt and braces' facility could/should be covered by the cashflows and dividends from the 49% stake in Creo Medical Europe. This creates a Win-Win-Win-Win: 1. We keep the strategic 49% asset and ride its growing value; 2. We eliminate the threat of dilution; 3. We trigger a massive Share Price re-rating by proving the 'funding gap' is permanently closed; 4. We protect and enhance the Predator Premium.

4. The "Search & Destroy" Revolution: MicroBlate Flex + Intuitive Robotics

• Clinical Proof: Challenging the Surgical Gold Standard: While traditional surgery remains the established gold standard for lung cancer, MicroBlate Flex is the leading "Emerging Challenger" backed by microscopic evidence. Analysis from "ablate and and resect" studies at Amsterdam UMC and Royal Brompton Hospital has confirmed 100% complete cell death in treated tumors. This provides the "ground truth" that microwave energy matches the tumor-killing efficacy of a scalpel. The "Heat-Sink" Advantage: Unlike older technologies, MicroBlate’s microwave energy is not "cooled down" by nearby blood vessels. This ensures a predictable and uniform kill zone in the highly vascular environment of the lung. Superior Safety: Early data continues to show 0% procedure-related mortality for MicroBlate Flex, compared to the 2.1% mortality rate historically associated with traditional surgical resection.

Disclaimer: These are personal thoughts & opinions based on publicly available info. Not financial advice. Always do your own DD and consult a professional. I hold 1,485,000 CREO shares.

Part 1 of 11

This analysis of Creo is my highest conviction view, and I hope it helps anyone thinking about investing or topping up their holdings.

Based on general market perception and discussions across various message boards, the SP is anchored at ~14p due to perceived 'red flags' in the interim balance sheet and the legacy of past results. However, I believe this sentiment is anchored in the past, and that these same points are actually the primary indicators of the upcoming re-rating:"

1. The £160M Loss & the 'Hidden' DTA

Regarding the Deferred Tax Asset (DTA). The accountants’ 'wait-and-see' approach is a lagging indicator. Creo has over £160M in accumulated losses; when you apply the UK's 25% corporation tax rate to these losses, it results in a potential £40M tax saving. Once we hit the NICE Mandate inflection point and move toward PBT profitability, that £40m asset could be recognized. That would be a massive, non-cash boost to the NAV (Net Asset Value) currently priced at zero.

2. Conservative Accounting vs. IP Reality

The ~£0.5m Intangible Asset figure is a massive 'bull' point. Because management expensed the R&D, the balance sheet looks 'empty.' In reality, we have 400+ patents that would cost a 'Big Dog' hundreds of millions to replicate. The current pipeline of devices is just the beginning; a next generation CROMA system or another market-disrupting device is expected to come from this robust R&D pipeline. In addition to other companies the partnership with Micro-Tech also allows us to use them as an outsourced design and development house for a broader range of more commoditized high volume devices such as the bipolar snare and bipolar knife. We are essentially buying world-class IP for pennies because of the accounting treatment.

We are competing on physics, not price. The Kamaptive platform is the only tech that miniaturizes microwave and RF energy into a single, tiny device. This creates a significant "Technical Moat":

• The "Heat-Sink" Advantage: Competitors use RF energy, which often fails in highly vascularized tissue (lung/liver) because blood flow cools the area. Creo's 5.8GHz microwave energy avoids this, making it the superior clinical tool.

3. The 'Fortress Balance Sheet' & Creo Medical Europe (CME) MicroTech JV Growth

• Micro-Tech as a Growth Engine: We are sitting on an asset that is worth £26.9m (the book value of the remaining 49% stake in Creo Medical Europe), which is a massive amount for an AIM company of this market cap. We should move away from seeing the 49% stake as just a 'Safety Valve.' Its value has likely increased considerably due to the powerful strategic alignment. Micro-Tech is arguably the best possible partner to access the huge and complicated Chinese market.

Disclaimer: These are personal thoughts & opinions based on publicly available info. Not financial advice. Always do your own DD and consult a professional. I hold 1,485,000 CREO shares.

Asperger

Thank you for sharing that. I’m so sorry to hear about your brother.

Honestly, your post is a massive reality check. It’s easy to get caught up in the charts and the cash burn, but we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that this is about people's lives. Lung cancer is a brutal disease, and if this tech can do what we think it can, it really is a game-changer.

I’m here for the long term too. I believe in the mission just as much as the numbers, and it's good to be reminded of why we’re all really here.

Stay strong.

Senator1

I agree 100%; results day guidance on revenue is everything now. Regarding the cash flow and the Europe stake, I think our risk appetites might differ slightly:

1. The Cash Position: We finished FY25 with £12.4m cash. Management expects to reach self-sustaining cash flows, and with the current burn rate narrowing rapidly, the bridge to profitability is shorter than the market thinks.

2. The Non-Dilutive Options: Equity funding below 24p would be incredibly difficult to justify. This is why a managed drawdown facility is such a strong option. Securing credit is a strategic 'Fortress Balance Sheet' move; it’s not about intending to spend the cash, but having it available removes the 'smell of a raise' and signals external banking confidence in the 2027 numbers.

3. MicroTech as a Strategic Asset: We should move away from seeing the 49% MicroTech stake as just a 'backstop.' It's a high-value strategic asset that strengthens the group valuation. Having €30m of value locked in a performing associate is a luxury most AIM peers simply don't have.

The Bigger Picture:

Ultimately, while we debate the cash flow, we shouldn’t lose sight of the scarcity of this asset. We are looking at a company with 400+ patents and an energy platform that has already been validated by a global titan like Intuitive Surgical.

With the NICE Mandate [GID-MT602] landing in Nov 2026, we are transitioning from 'disruptive tech' to a legally mandated standard of care in the NHS. That shift—combined with 100% margin royalties starting to ramp—is the perfect storm for a significant re-rating. At 14p/15p, the market is pricing in the historical 'struggle' while completely ignoring the imminent commercial explosion. The J-curve is coming; I’m happy to wait for the guidance to confirm it.

Senator1, out of curiosity, do you hold any shares in Creo yourself?"

Disclaimer: These are just my personal thoughts & opinions based on publicly available info. Not financial advice. Always do your own DD.

Scharnhorst

The "Streeting Factor": Why Enforcement is Guaranteed

It’s also important to look at the current political direction. Wes Streeting has explicitly stated that the NHS must 'reform or die' and that future funding is strictly tied to productivity gains.

• The Mandate with Teeth: Under this new 'Value for Money' framework, an NHS Trust refusing to adopt a NICE-mandated, cost-saving technology like Speedboat isn't just ignoring a guideline—they are actively defying the Government's core strategy to reduce waiting lists and hospital stays.

• Efficiency as a Metric: Streeting is pushing for league tables and tougher oversight for hospital performance. A Trust that continues to use expensive, outdated surgical methods when a mandated, £5k-per-procedure cheaper alternative exists will be a primary target for intervention.

In the 2026/27 landscape, the MedTech Funding Mandate isn't just a hurdle for the NHS to clear—it’s the exact tool the Department of Health will use to force the efficiencies they’ve promised the electorate.

For Creo, this political pressure acts as a massive 'adoption accelerator' that the market has yet to price in.

Disclaimer: These are just my personal thoughts & opinions based on publicly available info. Not financial advice. Always do your own DD.

That is a very common perception, but it's important to distinguish between 'clinical guidelines' and 'funding mandates.' The MedTech Funding Mandate (MTFM) is backed by specific legal and contractual requirements.

Here is what happens if an NHS unit refuses to comply:

1. Contractual Breach: The NHS Standard Contract is the legally binding document between commissioners (ICBs) and providers (Trusts). General Condition 2.2 explicitly mandates compliance with MTFM guidance. Refusal to fund Speedboat would constitute a breach of contract, allowing the commissioner to withhold payments or issue a formal 'Contract Query.'

2. Financial Penalties: Under the NHS System Oversight Framework, NHS England monitors 'efficiency and productivity.' Since Speedboat is proven by NICE to be cost-saving (saving ~£5k per procedure), a Trust that refuses to adopt it is intentionally wasting taxpayer money. This can lead to a 'Requires Improvement' rating, which triggers direct intervention from NHS England and can impact the Trust’s future capital allocations.

3. The '90-Day' Legal Clock: The Health and Social Care Act creates a statutory obligation to make funding available within 90 days of a NICE publication. Patients and clinicians can legally challenge a Trust that fails to provide a mandated, cost-saving treatment.

4. No Local Veto: The MTFM Policy Guidance is clear: local 'affordability' is not an excuse. Because the technology is cost-saving, the policy is designed to overcome the very barriers people are worried about.

So, while some Trusts might be slow, they cannot simply say 'no' without facing serious regulatory and financial consequences. By February 2027, the 'jump' to adopting Creo's technology isn't just expected—it is contractually and legally mandated.

Disclaimer: These are just my personal thoughts & opinions based on publicly available info. Not financial advice. Always do your own DD.

Senator1

Excellent analysis and fair points raised. The math on the £30m PBT breakeven at 60% GP is a solid baseline, but I believe it overlooks three critical 'accelerants' that pull that date into 2027:

1. The NICE Mandate J-Curve: I’ve factored in a deployment lag here. The Nov 2026 Mandate [GID-MT602] requires NHS commissioners to provide funding within 90 days of publication. So while the mandate drops in November, the enforceable revenue flow is guaranteed to start by Feb 2027. This timeline is built into the Jan 2027 profitability projection, turning linear adoption into a mandated surge by Q1 2027.

2. The 'Giant' Validation & Royalty Layer: The £30m model typically assumes standard 60% margins on physical hardware. It completely overlooks the Kamaptive licensing flow. When giants like Intuitive Surgical (ION) and CMR Surgical sign up for our energy solution, they validate it as Best-in-Class. These deals provide virtually 100% margin royalty income, which drops straight to the bottom line, shortening the path to PBT breakeven. Furthermore, with 400+ patents protecting the core IP, it's highly likely more 'Giants' will follow to avoid being left behind.

3. The 17-Year Salary Metric: Chairman Kevin Crofton is paid ~£65k/year, yet has put £1.1m of his own post-tax cash into this. He has effectively invested 17 years of his salary back into the company. A man who delivered a $2.3bn exit at SPTS isn't betting on a 2029 crawl; he is positioned for the 2026/27 inflection point.

You are absolutely right: Guidance for 2026 on results day will be key. We need management to shift their narrative from qualitative statements ('encouraging momentum') to quantitative metrics ('procedures per site') to show that this J-curve is real. We are all waiting for that clarity.

The 2029 projection is a 'linear' view of a company hitting a 'regulatory and royalty' turbocharger. At 14p, the market is pricing in the history but ignoring the imminent mandate and the high-margin royalty ramping.

Disclaimer: These are just my personal thoughts & opinions based on publicly available info. Not financial advice. Always do your own DD. I hold 1,315,000 CREO shares.