Member Info for epiphany121

Sorry, now -$1.50 = who'll now take these barrels and now get paid...

-0.25 cents now - negative alert...

And they've now printed negative... Oxy, fill that pool.

Hitman - it isn't as easy to 'temporarily' stop production in tha shale patch and bring it back online at a later date at the same production rate, as the wells lose pressure after a shut-in and produce less than before. SO, that isn't en easy choice for these fu*knuts, but their production hits are way higher than market prices and it doesn't make sense to produce, unless they're hedged.]

WTI is now at 13 cents per barrel..Fu*k..

Mod - Nat Gas is a beneficiary of this carnage in the oil markets. Up 5% today and I can see CNX is up 12% on my watch-list. Anything else catch your eye?

Crikey - saw a $1.10 print just now.

Oxy, 315 barrels isn't bad at all and WTI's just gone below $3. They'll soon (contract expires in an hour from now) be giving you money to store these barrels in your pool. ;-)

Surprisingly, shale shares aren't crashing today. Perhaps the idiots are already looking to other side in a few months after the small shalers are decimated.

No spot demand, Chilting as more than half the world is shut down.

CME put out a note that WTI can finish negative today - not sure how that works!!!

Does anyone have a 1000 barrel bath tub that I can rent and store this WTI crude..;-)

Carnage coming to the shalers soon, if it already hasn't.

Well done, AB.

Holy cow - WTI expiring today is now at $4 a barrel. Blimey!! The later months aren't bad, but that's mind-boggling.

Wow - the WTI contract expiring today is now at $11.50/bbl, down circa 40% today. If someone can take delivery now and sell later in the year, that's a lot of money to be made. Crikey!!!

Indeed, Hitman. Free Cash Flow obviously includes all costs - any other definition betrays ignorance of elementary accounting - however difficult that might be for LC/Neil Hannon.

Frac spreads down this week to 147 from 185 last week. Primary vision reckons that the count will be down to closer to 100 in a couple of weeks time. Even during the depths of the 2016 crisis, these spreads didnt get anywhere close to 100, not so now. Schlumberger confirmed on their call today the Frac spreads are likely to average closer to 100 this year, with a low closer to 50 in the coming months.

This is certainly good for the balance of oil markets in the coming quarters. Now, if only if we can get to the other side quickly... ;-)

Well, that's the only option really for shalers. Fiscal stimulus/grants will NOT happen. Tapping into the fed loan programme is about the only option for them and Mnuchin stated last week that it's only way out for these dinosaurs at this time, even if temporarily.

After a day like today with US oil stocks bouncing hard, the best trade for me would be short them and watch them unwind next week. A bit like my short call on TLW last week when it was at around 28p and is now at 18p.

Here's another dose of reality with Texas crude. My, my, my ...

https://twitter.com/ForexLive/status/1251244631783878659

This is a bit ominous for near-term WTI (and hence Brent) pricing, but bodes well over Q3 and beyond.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-17/energy-hedge-fund-that-shorted-oil-sees-chance-for-100-again?

P - oil rigs were 683, 5 weeks ago and now they're at 438. Permian's cratered and so have all the other shale basins. Nat gas will be a beneficiary though IMO as these rigs drop off and oil/gas production in the Permian craters. Modestus follows the gas companies closely than I do, but they're worth keeping an eye out for. Frac spreads should also drop big when announced later today.

When we get to the other side of this, with all the liquidity sloshing around in the system, oil will bounce well, IMO.

Hi Squif - The active contract differential right now is $5, and you'll remember that we saw differentials of as much as 10 bucks in December 2018. WTI went to $40 and Brent went to $50 at the lows. He can push Texas RRC to cut output from Texas (around 5.4 mmbbls/day production currently), along with North Dakota and Oklahoma. That can support WTI prices (and Brent, by extension).

The US oil patch is bleeding jobs big time as service providers have chopped jobs big time (rigs + fracking related jobs). Oil E&Ps haven't chopped much and that could be the next shoe to fall if oil prices are this low. Spot prices in the other states like ND/Louisiana/OK are in the low-mid teens already. However you look at it, they're f***ed unless production is cut big time. Will they ? We'll know soon.

The below may just happen, Jan. Prorationing by the Texas RRC inconjunction with other states. I doubt that Trump can do anything to help monetary support to oil companies. The democrats won't let that happen and that's good to weeding out the weak shale players.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/4/16/world-oil-analysis-texas-railroad-commissioners-face-difficult-decision-on-prorationing

That's the May WTI contract expiring today and not suprised it's at 18. The June contract is at $25.30 now and that's the effective contract we should look at.

The front-end WTI contract rolled over from May to June. That is but an indication of the level of contango in the spot markets..

Lol..cracking..

Donnie says - This is a great approach to fight a war against an invisible enemy - you know invisible, it means so invisible that you can't really see it. We have our best people on the case, and we'll defeat this powerful enemy and get the economy powerfully back in business. It'll come back like you've never seen it , just watch the Dow. It'll go back up like never before. We may lose a few good old men, but all's OK in war. Just you wait till I re-elected.