Member Info for eldorado5

Ding dong - hats off to you MEM and Bhargav for your predictions today and to the Italian who pretty much nailed the bottom. I'll be taking a look at the closing price later to determine how I see things from a TA perspective as I don't think the Webbometer is a reliable indicator!

Agree Phoebus. I’ll add that the Banks are essentially manipulating the price in their favour by placing a short each time Gold rises. They’ll let the price rise to extreme levels (such as $2068 in August) and then engineer the price south to extreme levels such as $1750 so that they profit from closing their shorts on the way down. They’ve made money on their longs on the way up because the trend is generally up; made money on their shorts on the way down and then start the process again. Very profitable for them, especially the likes of JP Morgan who do this on the corrupt paper markets but then use their repeated profits to actually buy the physical. Far cheaper to buy the physical at $1750 than $2068 with their casino profits

Since Gold peaked in early August it has declined from $2068 to the current price of $1812 – a drop of 12%. Most of this has been a slow bleed and we are now seeing a waterfall drop this week. $1750 is strong support and I have a buying plan, with clenched butt cheeks, in place to this level. The slow bleed has frustrated many Gold investors and the waterfall drop this week will see a lot of traders throw the towel in on Gold and Silver and mining stocks. However, these occurrences happen all the time with Gold as investors seek returns elsewhere in the short-term, so you do need a big pair of kahuna’s to experience these take-downs. Covid vaccines; bitcoin increasing and a more certain US presidency outcome are the triggers for the exodus of money from Gold, Silver and mining stocks to other sectors. Gold and Silver December futures expire this week and thanksgiving week is always a time for Gold and Silver to be trashed. I’ve experienced this sort of thing so many times and it’s not nice and it tests resolve and resilience. People start attacking each other on bulletin boards and blaming others for their own decisions; lose patience and forget the fundamentals.

The fundamentals for Gold and Silver are still in place and 2021 should be a great year. People forget that the world economy was in a mess before covid and when various stimulus is agreed; the dollar heads south and bitcoin corrects, we’ll see Gold and Silver come to the fore. Gold usually becomes seasonally strong until the spring after this November low and it’s always darkest before dawn as they say, so there is light at the end of the tunnel.

That’s the macro picture. Orosur has similarly been on a slow bleed since it peaked in early October and we’re also seeing a waterfall drop this week. I was hopeful that 22.7p would hold but the Italian hit this on the head yesterday, indicating that the share price could decline to under 20p. Fundamentally though, nothing has changed and we’re simply waiting for drilling news. Everything else is short term noise.

The more negativity I see around the Gold price and the Orosur share price the more confident I am that a bottom is approaching. Like a rubber band being pulled back, we are dropping now ready for the slingshot forward. We need to remember the fundamentals and be patient.

Morning Italian – yes, I don’t rule out a further slide to around 20p but I’m seeing strong support at 22.7p, a level that’s been defended multiple times so if that holds or 20p holds, that will give us a good line in the sand as completion of wave 2 and a start for wave 3. I'm a little bearish on Gold generally in the short term which will obviously impact mining shares if it falls to $1800

DJG123 – No, I’m not on Twitter. You can see many mining shares potentially entering waves 3 or 5 based on the lows in April this year – Hecla is a favourite of mine which could be entering a wave 5; New Gold is hopefully finishing its wave 2 correction and Sylvania Platinum is another that’s on its way to a higher high in wave 5 move.

Ignore the ' = 62p)' bit - fat fingers!

Wave 4 invariably sees a 38.2% retracement of wave 3 which would take it down around 25p to 62p. Wave 5 should move at least 61.8% of wave 1 so that will take it back to at least 87.5p (61.8% of wave 1 of 40p = 25p = 62p) but is often higher at 100%. I must stress though that Elliott Waves are not the only component I use in technical analysis and I’m continually adjusting the targets based on what’s actually happened. I’m happy to update what I see though on a regular basis

803799 - I'd recommend a couple of authors of technical analysis (Benjamin Graham and Jack Schlager) and really just practice over many years using IG's indicator and drawing tools. It's not for everyone and I would never just rely on technical analysis without understanding the fundamentals but I find them really useful in identifying buying and selling points and helps with my risk management. A lot of people think its plucking figures out of the air but in my view charts mirror what investors have done and indicates what they might do in the future. It's an additional tool in the kit bag

For the TA’s amongst (so not for everyone on here!) and from an Elliott wave perspective – Gold’s wave 1 started from $1450 and ended at $1760. Corrective wave 2 finished at $1670; wave 3 finished at $2070 and wave 4 ‘may’ have finished at around $1850. We’ve had 3 attacks of the Gold price at $1850 and if this holds, we’ll see a wave 5 that will exceed the wave 3 high. Cautiously, I think we’ll see a breach of $1850 and it could break lower to $1820 - $1750 (which fits the Fib 38.2% and 50% retracement levels) as Gold likes to inflict pain and unsaddle riders before it rises. A pullback to, for example $1800, will put targets of $2300/$2400 into play as a wave 5 target.

Orosur’s support at 22.7p continues to hold and if we apply Elliott wave theory to this, we have wave 1 ending at 45p and corrective wave 2 ending at 22.7p. Normally a retracement is from 50% (25.3p) to 61.8% (20.5p) of Wave 1 so we’re in that zone now. If this holds, we are awaiting wave 3 (which is typically the most powerful in a 5 wave trend) and can be as high as 161.8% of wave 1. If this plays out, we could be looking at a rise of 65p from 22.7p, indicating a target of 87.7p before we see a corrective wave 4 kick in.

Monday 9th November Gold sat at $1963 and Silver at $25.97. At the end of the day, they sat at $1850 (6% lower) and $23.57 (9% lower), immediately after vaccine news. In my book, that’s a bashing
Charts are not for everyone and fundamentals will always win the day but they are a useful component in identifying where people are buying and selling. I've used them for 20 years and they help me but each to their own

2 pieces of news in the last 24 hours which illustrates not only how illogical the markets can be but also how it can present us with great buying opportunities in the precious metal markets.

1st - call me a cynic but how does Pfizer’s final data analysis show its Covid vaccine to be 95% effective, only days after it said 90% and days after Moderna said their efficacy was 95%?! I’m the 1st to want an effective vaccine but I call that ballsh*t. And every time there's a vaccine announcement, gold gets smacked down. Investors hear vaccine news and suddenly money rotates out of gold and gold miners and flows into the big market caps.

The vast majority of every nations population in the world will not get the vaccine until well into next year – after front-line workers; after the elderly and after the most vulnerable. The economic implications of covid will be around for years and so any dips in Gold should be bought.

2nd – Gold got whacked again yesterday when Judy Shelton’s nomination to the US Fed was blocked. She is a so called Gold bug but in reality is nothing of the sort. Therefore, blocking her nomination is bullish for Gold, not bearish but that is how mainstream news spins these things.

Anyway, rant over – how is Orosur doing from a technical viewpoint? I’d say ok. If you draw horizontal support and resistant lines on the daily chart and overlay fib retracement levels you’ll have lines at 45.8p, 41p, 35.9p (36.17p – 23.6% retracement), 30.5p (30.23p – 38.2% retracement), 26.45p (25.43p – 50% retracement) and 22.7p (which sits above the 20.63p – 61.8% retracement level). Remarkably consistent. 22.7p is strong support and has held this level successfully after 6 daily attacks. As stated previously, I want 22.7p to hold; an increase to 30p and then a successful test and rejection of 26p to be sure that we can say goodbye to 22.7p and that view still stands.

I agree Phoebus. I think everyone has a valid point here. The share can move in anticipation of news; on news or after news. It can move on sentiment and no news. It can move on a Colombian lockdown or vaccine developments. Banks could fail and it would have an impact. They key though is to be patient and that means more than a few months!

If you take a look at other Gold and Silver mining shares, you'll see most are high %'s off their 12 month highs. Barrick is 23% off its peak, First Majestic, 35%, Hochschild 43%, the list goes on. Orosur at 50% is off. Is this cause for concern? Well, no, not if you believe in the big picture. The stock markets have reacted positively to a potential covid vaccine and the usual big boys such as Apple, Google, Facebook and Amazon are sucking money from the touchlines and away from precious metals. Few people will have Orosur or precious metals on their radars yet. But this is short term. Seasonally, October and November are poor months for precious metals and Diwali hasn't ignited great demand this year but we are entering a seasonally good period between December and March when demand for the physical and mining shares is usually good. Professionals will be adding here and at some stage, money from other big boys and girls will start filtering into mining shares and then there will be a clamour from Joe Public through very very narrow precious metals and mining shares doors. We are tiny markets but when demand ignites it will ignite! I saw it in the early 2000’s and in 2010/11 and I’m anticipating it now. The ducks are lining up – but patience is required.

We’re all showing the classic signs of investors having a perennial battle between greed and fear and hope and despair. This often happens when a share rises and falls quickly and we go from enthusiastic, greedy, delusional investors to despair, denying and fearful wrecks in weeks!

It’s really important to understand these are normal feelings, we all go through them in varying degrees and no one should be attacked for having them. A lot of people will be feeling fear because of the fall from 45p and that is natural. It will ignite a ‘fight’ or ‘flight’ response in you. ‘Flight’ in the form of selling at a loss or ‘fight’ in the form of sitting tight or even buying more. I use technical analysis to help me keep my emotions in check so that I have a good idea mentally of where the price ‘could’ go and what action, if any, I would take at each price point. Don’t forget that Market makers do exactly the same to extract as much greed and fear out of us because what they want is a liquid market, not one that stands still. So, I ignore but dream of the £1 predictions until I think it’s a reality and I plan for retracements but hoping they don’t materialise, unless I’m planning to buy more.

Ha ha ha – hey market makers is that all you can engineer in your beatings over the last few weeks? 14 days of beatings since the bearish MACD sell signal and 19 days of beatings since the high and all you’ve managed is to reduce my share price by 50%, which is usual in most major pullbacks. I feel like I’ve been in a fight but more importantly, do you? Despite not laying a punch on you for weeks, I feel good, I feel fresh - rope-a-doping, protecting myself and my 23p support level, pretending to be trapped and lying against the ropes, allowing your punches to be absorbed by the ropes' elasticity rather than my body. I’ve been prepared for the blows and now ready to counter. How do you feel? Starting to tire, lacking stamina, losing energy with those wasteful punches? More importantly, are you aware of the support team I have behind me? I have a supportive Gold price in my corner, I have an exciting drilling programme and potential drill results with the potential to knock your lights out. You’ll simply be overwhelmed. Still feeling confident punk?

Good info - thanks MEM

I think the Gold chart is showing some really good internal strength here. On the daily, it’s amazing how many times it has touched $1900 over the last 3 months and that is clearly the battle line between bulls and bears. $1950 is strong resistance and $1850 is strong support. It’s been good to see minimal follow through to Monday’s waterfall lower.

Similarly, with Orosur, I see strong resistance at 30p and strong support at 23p. I’m also seeing some good internal strength. We’ve been attacked at that level a number of times and held. Call me a cautious fool but I get more excited by support levels holding than resistance breaking. A downtrend has been in place since the bearish MACD sell signal on Tuesday 27th October and I’d say that is beginning to look a bit exhausted now. The downtrend and uptrend are converging where we are now. Healthily, I’d like to see a rise to resistance at 30p and then another test and hold of 26p, which was previous support and then we can be confident that 23p is the bottom, flanked by 26p support.

Yes – today’s share price action is disappointing, but I think the market is missing so many things from its knee-jerk reaction to a COVID-19 vaccine. The economy was in a mess before covid and the repo markets were already indicating big problems. Money was being printed hand over fist before the virus and through the virus and unless I’ve lost all my knowledge of economics, the economy will not rebound without further stimulus. At some point inflation will pick up and that’s an environment where you don’t sell precious metals positions unless you’re a bullion bank seeing an ideal opportunity to close your shorts. Any froth has been scraped off this market and whilst Gold at $1825 - $1785 could certainly be seen on the downside, I always see these blow offs as a healthy cleansing of the pores. Bull markets are known for shaking out weak hands; the shenanigans will not last and in bull markets you want to use significant price smashes to add to your already existing positions or simply hold existing positions.
So much for my bullish reverse head and shoulders pattern developing! But I don’t need to look for bullish patterns when the macro picture is so good. We’re sitting at the 50% fib retracement level and Orosur is reflecting a short-term malaise and whether we like it or not, the price could drift south until further news is received. But everyone – like the Gold and Silver price, this is just short-term noise. I think Gold and Silver will be multiples of its current prices in 1/2/3 years-time and ditto for Orosur. Anything linked to Gold and Silver will be on steroids, regardless of whether its prospects are good and if the prospects are good, even better. If anyone believes in cycles, look at Gold and Silver and the performance of mining shares in the 1970’s. Many were leaders in the Dow and FTSE; many were 5-10 baggers, and many were high dividend payers. They are already producing stacks of cash and I’m already receiving good dividends at a time when savings are heading for negative interest rates. It’s the perfect storm and will attract investors not only seeking capital but income growth too. A win/win in my book

Wow – what a day! I’m looking at the drop in Orosur and the big daily losses on Gold and Silver and my precious metal portfolio and you could forgive me for being a bit battered, bruised and deflated but hey, a week after my wife and I received a positive covid test and suffering all sorts of symptoms last week, there are more important things in life to worry about!
We are now in the home stretch and feeling much better and whilst the markets have whacked Gold and Gold stocks, I for one am so pleased that a vaccine is on the horizon so that we see an end to people’s suffering and the potential for life and the economy to get back to normal.
So, Gold? What’s changed today? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. The fundamentals still point to more stimulus, money printing and a lower dollar and if anything, it’s on sale
So, Orosur? What’s changed today? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. The fundamentals still point to a much higher price and if anything, it’s on sale. Am I buying more? No, because I have risk management controls in place for how much I’m willing to have in any one share and there are lots of great Gold and Silver mining companies also down 10-15% today. Battered, bruised, deflated? – nope, what I invest in is 15-20% lower; my wife and I have survived covid and the economic outlook is brighter than it was on Friday, why should I be?
Dr Remington – I agree, I also had problems accessing IG, HL and LSE. It worries me that these companies cannot cope with volatile markets and when you try and exit a market or even pick up a bargain, you can’t, unless you’re on the inside.

The markets are a lot more stable than I thought they would be but maybe it’s the calm before the storm? For Americans I have sympathy for the truly awful choice they’ve had for the presidency. For Gold bugs, we should hope for a Biden victory and a Democrat control of Congress because that will lead to a much higher stimulus, lower dollar and higher Gold prices. Odds are that it’s a next best thing of a Biden victory but a republican controlled congress although there are already movements to refer this all to the Supreme Court due to suspect postal voting. Either way, a $3 or$4 trillion stimulus package can only be good for precious metals.
Technically, on the daily chart, we are sitting above support at 26p and midway between the lower and upper Bollinger bands. RSI is ok and stochastics are now neutral having dipped to oversold last week. Volume is still low, so the price is lacking any real conviction. One observation that strikes me is the potential bullish reverse head and shoulders pattern emerging with the shoulders at 28p and the head at 26p. Something to look out for in the coming days as if the right shoulder holds at 28p, we could be saying goodbye to 26p and see a nice rise, further enhanced by news coming.

Stormy days indeed are here. Wall Street is continuing to see a sell off and Gold doesn’t know whether to follow equities or the dollar. Rising Covid numbers and the potential of a contested US election are doing nothing to calm the markets.
Technically, on the daily chart, we are still in a downtrend from 45p and the MACD gave a bearish sell signal crossover on Tuesday at around 32p. That’s the bad news. The good news is that we rose to 34p at one stage today and are now settled at 29p, which is the 20-day moving average. We respected the 25p/26p support (50% fib retracement); are sitting neutrally in the middle of the Bollinger bands and the bulls have turned up today to stop the rot, albeit not with massive volume.
Could we see 26p again or 21p (61.8% fib retracement) – maybe (as nothing surprises me in these markets) but if we do, that’s my buying zone, so I’ll be accumulating more. But let’s not end the week on a negative. News and regular updates are due, so we have upside fib extension targets of 36p (23.6%), 42p (38.2%), 47p (50%), 52p (61.8%) and 58p (76.4%) from where we are now. I’d like to see resistance at 36p taken out and held before I get too excited as that will be a sell zone for some that bought at 26p.
With the US elections next week – it’s going to get very interesting! Is it too early for a weekend beer?

Not a lot to report from a TA perspective today. On the 2 hourly we are in a 26p-45p trading range and as other forum members have commented, we are waiting – waiting for news and waiting for the US elections to conclude. In the meantime, the share price drifts. It doesn’t really matter who wins the election as increased stimulus and debt will ultimately lead to a lower dollar and much higher Gold and Silver prices.
The overall markets are twitchy and volatile on low volume and whilst moves on low volume are less reliable, this isn’t favourable for an immediate advance in any share prices. In fact, when share prices generally are diving, it is a common occurrence for precious metals and mining shares to initially dive too as investors seek to sell profitable shares to cover losses elsewhere. We could be seeing an element of that with Orosur. Feels like the lull before the storm…..