Member Info for Ejackson

A very good set of figures and the usual future caution about the w/w geopolitical situation. Pleasing to see the US side appears to be on the right track now.
Is a 10% drop in the SP really justified?

Correction: I missed the word ‘not’ in the sentence referring to being employees of MA. Apologies.

We are all guessing at the moment as to what the end game is 1GW but my hunch is that The Board are pretty miffed (being as diplomatic as I can be) over MA's opportunistic strike, as all the evidence of recent past points towards them creating a really profitable company in the future and wanting to part of that journey. I am absolutely convinced they would want to be employees of MA and prefer to back themselves.

They have bought shares to demonstrate this and have lucrative options to further reward down the line. I have mentioned in previous posts other interest and my thinking here is that the Private Equity houses may well see a well run, hugely cash generative business that is currently undervalued and tempt the management into doing a deal that involves giving them a greater slice of the action for when they sell or re-list the business in say 3-5 years time.

I cannot come up with a suitable trade buyer but with the exchange rate still advantageous for possible overseas interest, this cant be ruled out.

In a perfect world, I would want to remain a shareholder in a business that is finally going places and I am really hacked off with developments but we are where we are, so I really hope MA is sent packing and one way or the other, a fair price is reflected /achieved in 'the end game'.

My calculator has thrown a fuse keeping up with you 1GW but you raise a very good point.

Changing the topic for a moment, when it comes to fair value, it will be interesting to see if The Board turn to Edison again as they have done previously. Their current fair value price is £3.48.

I drew the same conclusion 1GW and bought yesterday.

Lets hope we are right.

I would like to see the SP higher as an indication that the market agrees although I suspect this will only happen once the offer document is published. I don't believe this takeover would have been MA's immediate plan but owing to the opportunistic purchase from Equity his advisors will be trying to cobble together some sort of a case for it ably assisted by the inside knowledge gained from Liam Rowleys presence at Board meetings. I also suspect there will be quite a number of buyout firms running the slide rule under us and very quickly realising just how cheap the company is at these levels so expect to see some interest being shown from these quarters.

Thank you for your last two posts 1GW.

The 50% threshold is what is giving me greatest cause for concern. With the additional 6,000,000 he picked up on the cheap from City Financial Absolute Equity Fund to take his holding to 36.8%, he doesn't appear to have to do too much to get this over the line unless I am missing something?
I have to ask, what forces were at play to enable the SP to get to this level and allow this to happen? It doesn't smell, it absolutely stinks.

I would echo everything you say 1GW.

I cant help feeling that we have been completely played to get to this point. At least The Board have been buying at higher levels so a swift response to state that the offer significantly undervalues the business shouldn't be too far off...

MA only buys when he can get away with paying peanuts, so I really hope this offer will be seen for what it is and rejected by the remaining shareholders. Unlike everything else he has taken control of, Findel is demonstrably in good shape and has excellent future prospects, which is why we are all here and invested accordingly. It will be interesting to see if he is playing a game of corporate poker and there are other suitors out there.

1GW, I felt concerned enough to send the below email to Tulchan yesterday afternoon and have not had a reply as yet. If I get one, I will share it with you.

FAO: Catherine James & Will Smith

Good afternoon to you both.

We have not previously communicated, however, I hold a significant personal shareholding in Findel Plc and am writing to you in your capacity of being their appointed Institutional Advisor.

I am sure I don’t need to draw your attention to the current share price which has now fallen by over 40% since the summer of 2018 despite what appears to be a strong set of recent figures reported to the market on 25th January with guidance towards the upper end of market expectations for FY2018/19. Additionally, I can only applaud the members of the Board that have bought shares to support their belief in the future direction of the company and feel reassured on one front, that our investments are aligned.

Whilst I fully appreciate the constraints of releasing market sensitive information, I would be grateful for your comment as to the interpretation of the current share price and specifically, assuming agreement by the Board that the market is wrong in ascribing its valuation, what action is intended to counter the current disconnection, for example, would the Board consider issuing an RNS to state that they know of no reason for the recent weakness in the company’s fall in share price and reiterate guidance for the full year?

I look forward to hearing from you with your feedback.

Kind regards

Given everything that is known, the SP has become a farce.

I don't know what it will take for the market to become more rational. Enough said until that moment arrives.

Very happy with this update. Core debt coming down so significantly is a huge and unexpected bonus.
Will the SP finally start to reflect the company's true value?

Taken from the last TU RNS:

The performance of our existing businesses together with a deliberate reduction in business development investment under current market conditions, led to a stronger year-end net cash position than originally expected for the Group

This got me thinking of the options open to them:
1) A significantly higher dividend
2) A special dividend
3) Continue to retain cash which would allow the company to take advantage of potential opportunities when the geopolitical picture becomes clearer.
4) Invest organically and bolster existing successful teams but given the statement still leaves headroom for 1) & 2)

Have I missed anything? Thoughts?

You can cut and dice this any which way you like but the simple truth is that after years of coming close, The Board has got to deliver.
The latest fund raising has put a clear timeline in place for them to do so. Nothing apart from RNS' announcing contacts that raise revenue will be acceptable.
Enough said.

Given all the geopolitical factors at play, a very solid RNS.

FWIW, I think we are witnessing behind the scenes shenanigans.
A large shareholder, who I suspect is SPD as they would like the cash to implement their as yet unidentifiable strategy, asked around and our new shareholders said ‘Yup, would like to help but at c.£1.80, give us a bell back if your interested’
MM’s get consensus and walk the price down to place the orders. We get caught up in the whole process and are left scratching our heads as to how this can happen after such a strong recent TU.
Once this reshuffle has been played out, my gut feel is we will bounce back up to a realistic valuation either before or around the next TU.
One final thought, if it is SPD, then with the reduction of their stake, they will I assume, forfeit access to Board meetings?

IMO, The SP is showing an irrational disconnection to the value and true worth of the company.

I wish I had funds available to take advantage of the situation but other investments in my portfolio are behaving similarly as the wider market continues to be nervous of the geo-political scene. Whilst this continues, I have elected to step back and wait for some semblance of order to return at which point we can reflect on this moment as having been a golden opportunity for those with funds available, and I might remind everyone that our own Board have meaningfully done so, to have bought so cheaply as indeed Credit Suisse appear to recognise too.

Some significant selling going on today.

I am sure whoever it is will have their reasons but I am baffled as to why they would do so given the positive nature of everything that has been recently reported. Why sell when the SP is this low, it doesn't make any sense.....

I have had similar thoughts.

If future reporting goes as I hope/ anticipate and buyers turn their attention to the company with growing awareness, there could well be a significant spike in the SP as the few shares available get chased upwards.

Time will tell.

https://www.lancashirebusinessview.co.uk/express-gifts-creates-750-christmas-jobs-accrington-109077/

I can't see anything that answers the question but also agree with 1GW that its a good point you make Skindle.

Elsewhere, I am pleased to see more confirmed support coming through from Schroders today in addition to the recent position Credit Suisse has taken and most importantly, the Board buying approx. £300k of stock.

With regards to the latter, I can only draw the conclusion that in the knowledge of how well they have traded in the 'record-breaking Black Friday period', I believe they have every confidence in how the remainder of the pre-Christmas period will pan out and this will enable them to issue an upgrade in January for FY profits guidance at which point the SP will head strongly north.