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Bones / StarChild / Tiburn - interesting....
BHP is bullish on oil and gas, eyes deals
BHP Group on Tuesday said it sees a clear opportunity in oil and gas to enjoy strong returns over the medium term and is ready to seek counter-cyclical deals in a world where many energy companies have cut back on exploration and new projects.
by Damon Evans
16/02/2021, 3:44 am
© BloombergMike Henry, incoming chief executive officer of BHP Group Ltd., listens during a news conference at the company's headquarters in Melbourne, Australia, on Thursday, Nov. 14, 2019. BHP named Henry, the head of its Australian operations, as chief executive officer to steer the world's top miner through looming challenges from slower growth in China and investor pressure over climate change. Photographer: Carla Gottgens/Bloomberg
Mike Henry, incoming chief executive officer of BHP Group Ltd., listens during a news conference at the company's headquarters in Melbourne, Australia, on Thursday, Nov. 14, 2019. BHP named Henry, the head of its Australian operations, as chief executive officer to steer the world's top miner through looming challenges from slower growth in China and investor pressure over climate change.
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BHP Group on Tuesday said it sees a clear opportunity in oil and gas to enjoy strong returns over the medium term and is ready to seek counter-cyclical deals in a world where many energy companies have cut back on exploration and new projects.
The company expects crude oil prices to climb further, as higher prices will be needed to trigger investment in deep-water developments that will help balance the market over the next ten years.
Khonsu - the term "Strengthening the balance sheets" is derived from the cash generated from increased production from Trinidad and Suriname whilst keeping costs out to a minimum.
Not all companies have an asset in order to achieve this hence why it’s mentioned.
Financially it’s written into the RNS that there are all sorts of avenues to raise capital so maybe some see this as a cover of all bases?
IceMax morning to you. What impact would there be if a Farm Out Partner was achieved?
Point being is we are back to square one -if investors are prepared for the potential gains or bumps in the road then at last the last week has taught many a lesson in gambling with what they can afford to lose! It’s also underlined that neither side of the argument know the truth until the next RNS drops in!
For me - the path has been lit and we know a way forward with still increased hope that some of what we holders have speculated has some merit.. the next few weeks or months are set to be interesting times for sure.
Olie I agree.
Two points from today’s RNS that further backed what some said despite the mood on the previous week;
The drilling of Perseverance #1 fulfilled its core technical objectives and a post-well review is underway. In parallel, BPC is considering the most appropriate way forward for monetisation of its assets in The Bahamas, in particular, the renewal of an active farm-out process
It was only ever supposed to be an exploratory drill!!!!!
Second bit is this;
the licences, and more accurately inform and direct the focus of the Company's forward strategy within its Bahamian exploration acreage portfolio.
As previously advised, the Company has continued to assess options for a farm-out or similar transaction as part of its overall risk mitigation and funding strategy, and maintained an active dialogue with a number of interested parties, including a number of oil and gas majors and supermajors, right up to the point of spudding the Perseverance #1 well. Since announcing the well results, the Company has received a number of unsolicited approaches from industry counterparties. Gneiss Energy has been formally engaged to assist in managing a formal process to solicit broader industry interest in a farm-in alongside this early, positive interest.
I can’t see that the company would lie about such an event - no wonder the board looked smug in the build up to P1
Worth repeating again - active dialogue with a number of interested parties, including a number of oil and gas majors and supermajors, right up to the point of spudding the Perseverance #1 well.
StarChild thanks for your earlier reply - it’s a compelling story - and as I term our rugby training over the Brecon Beacons - a short term pain for a longer term gain....
StarChild good morning - post edited below as a critical NOT omitted!!!
- just a FYI - CERP was breakeven when WTI was in the low to mid $20’s.... at near $60, makes it comfortably double, although it’s not known to me what the costs of running BPC is vs CERP was?
Another piece of news that impacts BPC whom have announced nothing on the topic if IT or Co2...
Inniss-Trinity CO2 EOR
-- Swab tests and investigation of two of the four wells originally selected to evaluate well condition and, if suitable, return to production have been completed. A third well, not in the original program, was added to the investigative work.
-- All three wells recovered oil during swabbing operations (approximately 10 barrels in the recovered fluid), having previously only produced water. Fluid levels in the wells have risen in response to CO2 injection at AT-5X. The encouraging results facilitates moving to the next stage to reactivate at least two of these wells for production.
-- Swab tests and investigations confirm potential for realising pre-injection desktop production plateau forecasts in the range 243 -547 bopd from Herrera #2 Sand
-- Three further wells will be swabbed and investigated as soon as well services are released from other work
-- AT-5X is being prepared for further CO2 injection.
The addition of the Herrera #2 Sand perforating opportunity in a further well will create an inventory of up to seven production wells versus only three wells used for the forecast production profile in the pre-Piot CO2 EOR Project Plan submitted to the Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries.
During the period from 15 January 2021 to 10 February 2021 WTI oil price has risen from US$ 53.02/brl to US$58.25/brl.
Forward program
-- Complete swab investigations of remaining three wells
-- Further continuous CO2 injection at AT-5X
-- Continue enhanced production from existing production wells
-- Reactivate two of the seven available wells to add CO2 EOR production
-- Determine increase in incremental oil flow rates over one month of CO2 injection
StarChild good evening - just a FYI - CERP was breakeven when the WTI was in the low to mid $20’s.... at near $60 make it comfortably double although it’s known to me what the costs of running BPC vs CERP was?
Or more accurately https://youtu.be/LemG0cvc4oU
Well if this is true then perhaps Potter can stay a little longer....!! Lol
Here is hoping that Potter has a cunning plan that is better than a Baldrick musing, and delivers SP value - great line that!!!
From the rhetoric during the lead up (can’t be relied upon I know) and during the drill there could be something in the fact that enough technical knowledge was gleaned so the P1 drill did it’s job so to speak? - it’s a grain of comfort for those who didn’t sell can hope for??
It was I that put the notion ref LK leaving as first Tulip are based nearer to home and second he heads up a huge investment fund which has been discussed... It’s an outside chance but certainly the move nearer home and the reason he left due to personal reasons fits for me.
For me there was a gaping hole in detail the line that the well was not commercial but went on to give some clues?
There is also the dogged nature in which BPC have conducted themselves in the JR? Surely if the block will never yield oil why bother with the stress not to mention the financial burden of legal costs?
All in all that infamous RNS sounded like a ****ed of Potter but perhaps with a sting in the tail? We can but hope but it certainly ain’t over just yet for me - but what others do is up to them...
Are Carr’s and Coman still lurking? Is BigMJ and Pecs still invested? It’s clear the pack of Hyenas are in full flow... perhaps why the aforementioned are not bothered in posting at the mo?
The markets take of it Rossannan is they like us don’t know what the cash position is so I feel is priced in for the worst possible outcome - a placing?
You of all should know that the market hates uncertainty and this is where I think we are today.
However the point of the last few posts are picking clues out of the RNS to try to decide if it’s time to fold and run making a huge loss in the process or to stick it out... note BigMJ does not appear to have sold not that his position should be followed but he was a lot closer to the board owing to his stake in the company? Have any of the directors sold? Has LKs wife dumped his shares?
Point is no one can say much until the company update the market on cash position and an update on strategy where it’s hoped they focus on the SWP... which is what I have banged on about since the merger....
POC it’s an interesting theory and for me something was not right or shall we say usual in the RNS - it was by BPC standards very abrupt re the not commercial - no explanation why or any detail other than what was stated which does give a glimmer of hope as again there was not much in the way of view or strategy but enough to make some either sell or for others to wonder and think deeper...
POC how long do you expect the wait for the results to take?
Zebra - re pollution - I suspect the environmentalists would be better served sighting the pollution from the increased traffic both land air and sea than abandoned wells!!!
One point you made which as yet to be countered is this from your post;
The reason i say 23mil mcap is too high is that Bpc side of the merger is done. The stock now needs to be priced at cerps pre merger price. Do you know what that was? 17mil.
Then there's the 4.6Bil shares shares to consider. If cerps assets do amazing and go from 17mil to 230mil mcap. That's a share price of 5p. Dilution caps the upside.
Now I agree with you points on the face of it but thinking deeper feel you perhaps need to factor in the potential upside valuation of the assets?
So WTI has almost doubled from when the merger took place, so you could say that the assets have increased in value due to WTI increase along with the raise in the SPT trigger?
Then there is the cash in the bank but we don’t know what is left of it following P1.
Other parts to consider are the value of the data from P1? Is Potter giving his best poker face - is it worth anything or are the bashers right in that the Bahamas will never be an oil producer? Judging at how the company have insisted a place during the JR and comments from Potter since the fateful RNS id say he believes it’s worth fighting for - why? Is he mad or does he see something?
Then there is the potential increase in production from the successful Co2 pilot which could assist with other producing sites across our base?
The final bit is to do with the SWP - where we never knew what the full potential of Saffron 1 was as various intervals have not been disclosed to share holders in terms of what was found?
Factor in Suriname which has future potential plus the potential from IT be it production increase which gives a valuable working relationship with PRD and their Co2 injection (which I think will replace water flooding at Goudron as an example) or maybe the sale of IT to PRD and you will I hope agree it’s not quite as straightforward as your point suggests but I would welcome your or others views on this...
Only person that knows is Mr Potter and feel he should be updating us via RNS to steady the ship... I fear from his last comment re ‘Shareholders have a choice’ in an email response to someone here, that his arrogance may shade his judgement... as long as he has an handle then that’s fine with me... for now.
My last thought is Leo Koot - now at Tulip oil - looking at their location it’s clear he has moved closer to home so whilst we speculate it’s possible his departure was for personal reasons.
Over and out for now....
Trek that’s the kind of alternative view needed put in a way that’s constructive and well thought out.
Thing is where do investors go now to recoup the 70% lost and then a further potential of 10x that number??
I guess because there is hope and because the company appear to have rushed that last RNS out probably because they knew as soon as the IM moved then the cat would be out of the bag as part of that reason that there could be some hope later down the line.
The company if it cared about its investment base should provide an update urgent to calm nerves and to underpin their plan...
Frankly the silence is deafening....
Potter if you read this time to collect that bus pass...
Koots deal to his wife’s pension pot StarChild?
Edit* Tulip not Tullow!!!!
POC - couple of points to debate from your last post....
SPT kicks in when WTI breeches $70?
SWP land is privately owned so 90% of what we sell per barrel is ours minus lifting and export costs.
Water flooding was piloted at Goudron but we never learned how successful it was.
Goudron struggles with sands but possible the play is being fed by a reservoir deeper down?
Co2 has been successful at IT - could this be the answer to our Goudron problem?
PRD could up their offer for IT especially as their Co2 project has worked according to their RNS?
Finally isn’t Potter due to retire soon???
Leo Koot - heads a 500million investment fund and is a director at Tullow??? Would some if not all depending on the P1 results be a fit for them??
Discuss!!!
JBT ref your post earlier today - there is no SPT in play for the SWP - I’m sure someone will correct me but 90% of each sale is retained by the company as the land is owned privately.
The oil can be sold direct to the worlds market and with the location in mind a buoy at sea is needed for tankers to hitch up and take it away as one method of route to market.
I may not have agreed with all of your previous posts and reflecting upon that you were right. There needs to be far more balance from folk like you because we had the 87p, 43p even 12p mob and then at the other end of the spectrum the bashers with 0.05p...
As they say the truth always falls between the two views....
Lesson learned....!
IceMax - on balance I agree - we don’t know...
What we do know that at low $20 for WTI that the old CERP assets kept the lights on... now since then not only has the WTI doubled but the Trinidadian Gov raised the SPT trigger point to $70. Both means more profit to BPC?
Conjecture at this point is the possibility of the sale of IT which was ear marked at $4.2m to PRD assuming they still want it - how much or - well more than their derisory offer!! So the income is possible to fund S2 but we are second guessing Potters strategy although he has said since that focus goes into the CERP assets?
So no knee jerk reaction just yet... I want to see what the next move might be based on what we know contained in my points above....
POC / Tiburn / StrarChild / in4..... anyone with a sensible balanced view.....
What money do we have left over to fund Saffron 2?
I assume stopping the drill and not going lower preserved some cash but the question remains with S2 likely to cost 2/3m - do we have it?