RE: Upgrade29 Apr 2026 09:41
Morning All,
I had a call with Justin this morning to discuss the Morgan Stanley note on ITM Power. Thank you Justin for being accessible and willing to go over it with me.
Key takeaways below. Please note that this is my understanding and you should do you own research etc.
Upgrade to Overweight β their first in the hydrogen OEM space since 2021
MS turns positive on ITM Power, recognising the significant transformation the group has undergone in recent years β moving from a loss-making entrepreneurial venture to a credible industrial hydrogen player under CEO Dennis Schulz.
They now see EBITDA breakeven in sight, potentially in FY28, a full year ahead of consensus. They also expect new orders to be announced in the coming months, which would make the path to profitability more tangible and support further re-rating of the shares. The current energy crisis is seen as a tailwind, with ITM viewed as a compelling way to play the hydrogen theme.
Flurry of catalysts ahead in 2026
MS believes 2026 will be a strong year for newsflow. Specifically:
β’ Imminent HAR2 final results in the UK could trigger FID on up to 180 MW of projects. They see a high probability of Uniper's 120 MW Humber H2ub project (planning permission already in place) converting into a firm order.
β’ FID on StableGrid's first 30 MW project is also expected this year.
β’ FID on the new 1 GW Chronos manufacturing line is anticipated in June, which should drive meaningful cost reductions and potentially accelerate large order flow β particularly in converting the high-potential multi-gigawatt Rheinmetall strategic collaboration into first firm orders, possibly this year.
EBITDA breakeven could come sooner than the market expects
MS argues that a handful of the above orders would be sufficient to make FY28 EBITDA breakeven relatively well-secured, with potential for gross margin breakeven as early as FY27. This is notably ahead of consensus (FY29), and their FY28 estimates are materially above the Street. They estimate gross profit breakeven is already well secured for FY28, with only ~200 MW of incremental new orders needed to reach EBITDA breakeven that year.