Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
2 separate events have taken place this evening, I think by coincidence.
1) A desperate OMF have issued a press release asking for an absurd deal from the GG. Nothing for us to really worry about.
2) A payment to the Cayman Island registrar is late. Just shows how messages get missed if a company has no back-office staff. Nothing for us to really worry about.
Think I might get to bed early.
The California case is being brought against H/OMF in the name of FRC and FIC. So someone upstairs is bound to notice what's happening in the Caymans - um - aren't they?
Correction. 25/03/20 should read 25/03/19.
Outrider is indeed desperate. Their total Asset Value back in 2018 was $153 million. At 25/03/20, it had shrunk to $65 million (and that's the total for all three sections of the company).
https://predictiveops.com/advisers.130152
That's one hell of a fall in a year. I've always been confidant that FRR will win the fiduciary case in California. If/when they do, saddling H/OMF with tens of millions more expenditure, then I really doubt if H/OMF would survive.
Desperate, you betcha.
My post pointing to an official list of active election observer organisations and, separately, a list of complaints made to officials about the election campaign, was also deleted (for the third time!). I give up!
Thanks to Mp from 00.27 today for the latest poll result.
I don't know why, but the Georgian pollsters seem to have a thing about including the 'don't knows' (19% in the recent poll), and the'won't says' (14%) in the figures as though they, too, are going to vote (they probably aren't!). When opinion poll results are reported in the UK (and, I believe, most other western countries), the DK's and WS's are excluded from the final figures, except as footnotes, as this would normally give a more accurate forecast of the actual election.
In order to translate the latest poll into a western style, multiply each party's figure by 100/67 (67% being the total of those who gave a voting preference). The result of this gives GD 37.3%, NMU 23.1%, EG 7.5%, SB/LP/AP 4.5% each, Girchi/UG 3.7% each, Lelo 3%, Citizens 2.2%, FG 1.5%, Others 4.5%.
To then forecast how many of the 120 proportional seats each party will win, according to the poll, multiply each of the party %'s by 120/100 (or 6/5 if you prefer).
That gives GD 45 proportional seats, NMU 28, EG 9, SB/LP/AP 5 each, Girchi/UG/Lelo 4 each, Citizens 3, FG 2, Others 5.
The GD, as far as I know, has no solid parliamentary support from other parties, other than the Alliance of Patriots (AP) - a very reactionary, extremely pro-orthodox (religion), extremely pro-Russian (and Russian sponsored) party; plus possibly a couple of independents. On the figures above, if the poll is correct, that would give a GD/opposition split in the proportional seats of about 52/67. (Lost one through rounding!).
I presume that the 30 other, majoritarian, seats will split similarly. Those which are won by more than 50% will, I believe, be declared on the election night That should then give us an idea of how the second round for the remaining majoritarian seats will go.
After all this waffle, I must state the obvious - we all know that political opinion polls cannot be entirely relied upon!
Oh, and one final thing. Whatever the eventual result, the GD appears unlikely to have the crushing majority it currently enjoys. One way or another, the new parliament will probably be a very changed beast.
No problem, Finn. It's just the judge granting Zaza's attorney's request to withdraw from being ZM's representative.
Using data from MadPunter's 14.54 post - if GAV stands for Gross A/c Value, then OMF's total value from all 3 of their a/c's at 25/03/19 was only about $65 million. That means that the cost of losing in California, with damages and costs, would practically wipe OMF out. Does this explain why Hope's dopes won't leave us alone? Desperation?
Seingred - I don't see a problem. If the lawyer thinks he has more than one reason for withdrawal, then why shouldn't he list them? The more reasons he has, the more likely the judge is to agree to his request.
(Sigh). The procedural rules form a legal 'irreconcilable difference' between the 2 parties insofar as the attorney cannot represent both of them at the same time. If ZM, SN and FRR are in disagreement, there is no indication of it in this document.
Thanks Seingred. That's exactly what I was trying to indicate.
'Mr. Mamulaishvili is no longer associated with Frontera and as such there is a conflict of interest if (FRR's attorney) continue to offer representation to Mr. Mamulaishvili.'
No mention of disagreements between the parties, just a conflict of interest for the attorney caused by a procedural rule.
That's it.
It's a very good reason. The truth often is.
Just to make it clear. At no time has anyone in the Texas case stated that irreconcilable differences exist between ZM and either SN or FRR. FRR's counsel has said he can no longer represent ZM, as ZM is no longer a representative of FRR.
So, if, for instance, H/OMF were to win the Texas case, then the matter of costs would arise. The attorney, I assume, would then feel that he could not represent his client (SN with Frontera) at the same time as ZM as a conflict of interests could arise. This conflict could be seen as potentially irreconcilable to the attorney. That is where the word 'irreconcilable' comes in. Nothing to do with business matters.
Remember, this case is between H/OMF and ZM + SN in their personal capacities. It has no immediate effect on FRR. Only if ZM turns up in California with a scowl on his face and his own attorneys in tow do we have any need to worry on that score. That ain't going to happen!
This is just pure speculation on my part. But could it be that a big oily is involved - making a move to buy up the 1% + gas data from FRR, and the rights to all of FRR's old hunting grounds from the GG, all in one go? Probably just wishful thinking on my part, and not to be taken too seriously. But it would be yet another explanation for the current silence and - er - I suppose it could just be so?
Formalities. Just for info.
Doc. 41 - An order from the judge to FRR's counsel ordering him to 'communicate to (ZM) the perils of not being represented by counsel' before the court will consider the counsel's withdrawal from that representation.
Doc. 42 - From FRR's counsel certifying that they have complied with doc. 41. Service was made by email 'as this is the only way of communicating with (ZM), who is a resident' of Georgia.
Well spotted, Jim. It's difficult to see how an American national security advisor could discuss Russia and 'European energy diversification' with a Georgian p.m. without mentioning the Georgian gas fields and Frontera.
Mind you, the advisor is part of Mr. Trump's team, so you never know.
Well I made a promise to myself not to post again until the Company actually communicated something substantive. But I still get drawn like a magnet – so a brief comment.
Zaza was briefing the press up until around 21st August (thanks to Looed on LSE). Then on 4th September “JJ Carter” pops up on LSE and says Zaza has been removed – now confirmed by court papers. JJ Carter’s only other posts were in June regarding the legal team representing FRR/SN/ZM.
We also know that a Government minister confirmed that “dialogue” was taking place with FRR – last reported on 6th August.
You can draw multiple conclusions regarding what is going on here – so I will avoid the temptation. But three things stand out for me.
First - ZM will not have walked without either good reason or a bitter fight. And he will still hold his shares (around 1 billion I recall).
Second – who on earth is JJ Carter? He can only be linked to either the law firm (highly unlikely) or the company. And why would he post a comment on LSE??? The LSE FRR shareholders can have absolutely no influence on events!
Three – FRR has now got no senior management capability in Georgia. So they have either thrown in the towel completely or are in the process of some form of handover
For what it’s worth FSHG recently had one more go at a pretty robust contact with the company – but no response so nothing to report. We can’t see any point in further attempts, but I do ask myself whether the JJ Carter post was an unattributed attempt by the company to tell us about a key change.
As TOT says one way or another this will have to close off soon – and perhaps we can then all get on with our lives.
Well I made a promise to myself not to post again until the Company actually communicated something substantive. But I still get drawn like a magnet – so a brief comment.
Zaza was briefing the press up until around 21st August (thanks to Looed on LSE). Then on 4th September “JJ Carter” pops up on LSE and says Zaza has been removed – now confirmed by court papers. JJ Carter’s only other posts were in June regarding the legal team representing FRR/SN/ZM.
We also know that a Government minister confirmed that “dialogue” was taking place with FRR – last reported on 6th August.
You can draw multiple conclusions regarding what is going on here – so I will avoid the temptation. But three things stand out for me.
First - ZM will not have walked without either good reason or a bitter fight. And he will still hold his shares (around 1 billion I recall).
Second – who on earth is JJ Carter? He can only be linked to either the law firm (highly unlikely) or the company. And why would he post a comment on LSE??? The LSE FRR shareholders can have absolutely no influence on events!
Three – FRR has now got no senior management capability in Georgia. So they have either thrown in the towel completely or are in the process of some form of handover
For what it’s worth FSHG recently had one more go at a pretty robust contact with the company – but no response so nothing to report. We can’t see any point in further attempts, but I do ask myself whether the JJ Carter post was an unattributed attempt by the company to tell us about a key change.
As TOT says one way or another this will have to close off soon – and perhaps we can then all get on with our lives.
Well it certainly looks like we are approaching the end game here. A number of possibilities spring to mind:
Had to step down in order for the Co to secure a better settlement with the Georgian authorities. In this scenario he will have agreed not to blacken the name of the current regime any further.
Standing down so he can put himself forward as a candidate in the elections and help see the buggers off.
Stepping aside as part of some rescue deal involving Outrider and a Major. FRR to be absorbed as a subsidiary.
Retiring for health reasons. Let’s face it, this whole saga can’t have done him any good and his family might have persuaded him to hand back the CEO mantle to SN.
Whatever, I think this means that some news must emerge soon. Possibly the final coup de grace, but here’s hoping for a miracle.
Tot
Just been looking at JJ.Carter's previous post, dated 13/06/20. The following caught my eye :-
Bruce Linsenmeyer 'is focused on securities law and acquisitions'.
'Known for his particular skills in cross-border transactions and fundraisings'.
'He is heavily involved in negotiating and closing mergers, acquisitions and strategic partnerships'.
I wonder what Mr. Linsenmeyer has been doing with FRR for the last 3 months?