Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
Great feedback from everyone here and sensible thoughts... the timing of recent events did indeed spook me too and I'm generally not easily spooked. Seems like TLY might have a case for damages at this rate, if the article is factually incorrect. TLY has worked hard on its reputation and it's important to maintain it.
Got to say, I'm warming towards increasing my position again given the extreme drop in price.
The timing of yesterdays sale is indeed suspicious. Were management aware of this news? It seems entirely possible they would see it coming when being contacted for commentary.
On a more positive note, the loss of this contract basically negates the previous win for around 10mil p.a so the sudden drop in share price is purely a reflection of sentiment rather than fundamentals. I'll be holding but paying closer attention.
Reading the details... it's not a new contract but a replacement for the existing contract.
"The contract will replace an existing contract that Totally currently has in place for the two UTCs."
Not quite as exciting as the RNS implies. Anyone aware of what the previous contract was worth?
Tricky stop... The dividend is beyond doubt well covered and has been for years. Remember the non cash impairments we talked about.
As for Totally being vulnerable to NHS cutbacks... the past few years has shown the opposite to be the case each and every time. Either way I've got my fingers crossed that the price goes much lower. I personally see a large margin of safety at current prices and I'd like to own more.
Honestly Tricky, it's a fair question.
Note 21 Of the annual report I see Accruals and deferred income nearly 21m. I interpret this to mean that services are paid for ahead of time. This number has grown each year and has positive impact on free cash flow, however Totally has also grown semi-proportionally. It would require intimate knowledge if the company accounts to understand what this truly means. It could just be that the NHS pays the period upfront. It's not something I'm concerned about and some trust is required.
Of course there are.
I'm pretty sure taxes won't be an issue for some time after many years of losses.
This is an asset light business, cash is about the only note worthy asset and so book value will probably always be a skewed figure. It appears to me that the largest segment of liabilities comes from upfront payment of services not yet rendered and outstanding amounts on acquisitions . This is a point on which investors would have to trust that management know what they are doing, and so far, I see no reason not to.
Tricky, Free cash flow is the most important figure to watch here. Just look at the cash the business has added to it's bank account over recent years. Most of it came from free cash flow. Ebitda is a completely distorted figure for Totally for the past 3 years I've owned shares. Basically, the balance sheet has taken a non cash impairment every year I've been watching. This has been entirely hiding the fact that Totally is profitable and very sustainable.
Why so negative?…. it hasn’t fallen through the 30p support level. This is a normal wave and 30 to 40% oscillations are quite normal for Totally. Please, go ahead and sell. At 30p it’s a bargain. Below 25p I’ll be liquidating other positions to place it here.
Free cash flow went from 9.5 to 11 million last year. They beat my expectation for 2 years in a row. You can now buy 11 million of income for 60 million. It’s a stable steady bargain.
I this the statement that warrant a 9% drop in valuation? Seems ridiculous to me.
"Looking ahead, we see opportunities for growth but also face the same challenging operating environment as the NHS and other businesses in relation to staffing, recruitment and increasing costs.
Not untrue what you say but remember Wendy has previously said that there is some margin for inflation built into their contracts with the NHS. The company has cash reserves to deal with the problem in the short term.
Still remains low risk in my opinion and this dip represents a good time to buy.
Sorry to hear you're out unhooked... selling now make no sense in my opinion. The muted market reaction to recent company news is disappointing but the current share price is completely disjoint from the underlying value given dividend, free cash flow and growth.
I'd currently recommend anyone to buy at these prices. It's even worth holding as a mid term trade imo.