RE: SP2 Jan 2025 22:38
Sedaka, I know some ULTHs who still have double digit SP averages because they bought heavily back in the earlier days. While there are 2.3x-ish shares in issue today, I do believe the potential of the company has expanded considerably due to the EU's GHG regulations (i.e. bioMSAR solves a problem that other products can't currently solve).
It is impossible for shipping companies to solve the GHG problem with conventional fuels alone — the regulations are deliberately designed to exceed what they can achieve with efficiency improvements alone. They're starting modestly, but are ramping up quickly.
The MSAR emulsion fuel platform unlocks vast amounts of untraded biogenic waste that we can 'valorise' (make valuable), but which can't be readily used by any other technology. That means those feedstocks should be cheap, diverse, and economically detached from the regular hydrocarbon fuel market.
One of its superpowers is that it can combine oil-soluble and water-soluble feedstocks into the same fuel, while remaining stable.
For example:
- Glycerine as a byproduct from food processing and biodiesel.
- Biogenic sugars from pyrolysis (BTG Bioliquids) and solvolysis (Vertoro), derived from waste biomass that is currently left to rot or fed into biodigesters for methane. We offer a much more valuable market for those feedstocks. Think of all the waste from crop stubble, bagasse, sawdust, tree bark, low-grade waste cardboard and paper that is too dirty and mixed to recycle, etcetera.
- A long pipeline of other waste feedstocks which all seem readily compatible with the MSAR emulsion platform (e.g. certain outputs from sewerage treatment plants can be converted into an oil via hydrothermal liquefaction; tyre pyrolysis oils; methyl esters). There are likely more the team haven't discovered yet.
The key takeaway is that the platform has good compatibility with a wide variety of feedstocks and hence we should be able to access plenty of calories from a diverse range of sources, which should both help us serve the market but also keep the price attractive.
The fact this all works in existing 2 stroke marine diesels is the final killer attribute. Many modern vessels are expected to have 30+ year lifespans. The industry needs solutions that can work with existing vessels, and that's exactly what we're offering.
There are incumbents that want those vessels scrapped or engines reengineered for ammonia, methanol, etc, etc, but the costs there are orders of magnitude higher.
(In some ways the name bioMSAR is a slightly misleading, because it turns out we can use non-bio feedstocks quite happily as well!)
They do need a minor retrofit, but its CAPEX payback time is minuscule and they retain full compatibility with existing fuels.