RE: dunder1 Jun 2018 06:41
Matherd sorry mate it is very difficult to speculate the economic impact of zubs by taking onboard direct 30 % interest in an asset which they vicariously already own 29% of hence, have in effect, paid for the past costs of this asset already.
Hence the deal is likely to be both with solo and aex, similar to blvn. If there is a back cost repayment to partners this could be treated as an advance only and "repaid" with the partners cost recovery gas when produced later?
Don't forget even if they have previously funded economic sunk costs for this asset they may simply pay back costs to whomever, plus a 2 4 1 on carried equity for 1 well, they would then directly own a higher %tage of bigger asset and this may be justification enough, to forego the impact of 'double' payment. I personally think the deal will be structured with both partners but will also seek to 'recoup' the impact of their 'indirect' ownership in the assets and the 'dilution' thereof.
This was why previously when we (Lse bb) suggested the competition with regard to deal I foresaw how potentially complicated this was and, requested a 'relatively simple' dollar value per equity percent acquired. It may be difficult of course to determine that easily because as below the deal could only finally be determined long in the future with variable profit splits in different scenarios.
As above it will be very very complicated and could include scenario based profit splits between partners if certain production conditions or milestones are achieved.
At the end of the day 're zubs imho, they have pulled a complete blinder with 'aex mgt (Ahem lol)'.
You clever guys talk all of the time about what aex 'mgt' have achieved over the past couple of years (which in itself is questionable lol!) But the REAL question you should asking yourselves is how much have Zubs actually invested (cold hard dollars) to get themselves into a position of effectively running (all strategy for) aex company!! They are the real clever guys and you can be assured the deal will be structured fairly but in such a way that realistically aex have no other choices because of the nature of the structure they have sleep walked into?
At the end of the day the simple point is that I do not think Aex 'mgt' realised what a silly position they have created and the deal will reflect that.
Once again as ever all imho and dyor!!
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