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One interesting point in the second study that I found was that they mention COPD and Asthma, stating that there was no significant association with a greater risk of mortality.

When the Lancet P2 peer review came out, I didn’t have time to delve deeper into the details, but one thought that did linger at the time and since was how equal the two groups were: SNG001 and the placebo. In particular, I wondered if the type and related seriousness of the comorbidities had had a big influence on the results, especially as the SNG001 group had more people with high blood pressure.

Here are the details. I’ve also worked out the average number of comorbidities per person with comorbidities in each group. It’s pretty even amongst the two groups:

Placebo 50 people, 27 with comorbidities, 41 total comorbidities, average 1.52 per person
SNG001 48 people, 26 with comorbidities, 37 total comorbidities, average 1.42 per person

Of those in each group with comorbidities, here are the percentages:

High blood pressure: SNG001: 69%, Placebo: 41%
Chronic lung condition: SNG001: 42%, Placebo: 44%
Cardiovascular disease: SNG001: 19%, Placebo: 30%
Diabetes: SNG001: 12%, Placebo: 33%
Cancer: SNG001: 0 patients, Placebo: 1
I wondered if High blood pressure was less serious for Covid-19 patients than other conditions, especially cardiovascular disease and Diabetes, and therefore having an influence on the results of the trial. So, I did some digging and found a few reports on the chances of dying of Covid-19 based on different comorbidities. Here are two relevant reports:
The first shows that case fatality rates for comorbid patients are materially higher than the average population: Cancer: 5.6%, Hypertension:6.0%, Chronic respiratory disease: 6.3%, Diabetes:7.3%, Cardiovascular disease: 10.5%
Source: American College of Cardiology (ACC)
There’s a pdf here: bulletin released by the American College of Cardiology (ACC) on March 6, 2020.
The second study uses RR (Relatively risk). For example: a RR score of 1.50 means a 50% higher likelihood of mortality. The RR figures for 4 of the key comorbidities were: Cardiovascular disease: 2.25, Hypertension (High blood pressure): 1.82, Diabetes: 1.48, Cancer: 1.47.
The study is here:
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0238215
In conclusion. The SNG001 P2 study has a higher weighting of people with high blood pressure and lower weighting of people with cardiovascular disease and diabetes. High blood pressure IS a key comorbidity for Covid-19 and has a similar or higher contribution to death with Covid-19 than diabetes, but less than with Cardiovascular disease. In reality the key comorbidity to be worried about if there was a big discrepancy between the two groups is Cardiovascular disease. The placebo group did have more people with this condition, but only 8 vs 5. So overall, I feel much more confident now about the potential of SNG 001, given that the severity of comorbidities between the SNG 001 and placebo groups in the P2 trial are closer than I had thought might be the case.

We had a poster on here earlier questioning the quality of the P2 data. (N.B: he/she backed-up posts by RobSaunders (who is a blatant troll /deramper on here, so that's unlike to make me a fan, but I wondered if it's a valid area for more discussion).
I don't think we've seen anyone delve into that much on here. Is anyone on here a statistician?
With this relatively small sample size, what percentage confident level did the P 2 results get to?
Do we know any more in-depth details from P2? The placebo group had 3 with diabetes / cancer (I think), but were these the 3 that died?
I'm happy to be heavily invested here based on Holgate's reputation / knighthood, 15 years of research and product development and RM's repeated references to 'very good data', but wouldn't mind a bit of reassurance with some more statistically based conclusions from P2.
Any view?

Brilliant doc !

When we have big de-rampers on here we challenge them, asking where's the evidence to back up their thoughts. Surely the same should apply to big rampers? This is meant to be a BB where we share news, analysis, evidence... and golf after all !

Hold and Tatty, Do we need to set up our own Stewart Lee thread?
And Zwartk chill out dude, I'm not a golfer, but good that the golfing chat is all in one place surely ?

@Golf
I think that's why so many on Twitter hide behind pseudonyms - it's very easy to be a keyboard warrior or cowardly troll there when no one knows who you are. Because I joined Twitter in the early days and because I use it mainly for work, it's easy to work out who I am from my profile, so I have to steer away from political based comments due to what might come my way from some unhinged idiot. I'm all for sensible and cordial debate with others who have opposite political views to me - just not on Twitter! So things like #whywomenlivelongerthanmen is the silly antidote to it all there.

Golf it's quite easy to avoid the toxic side of Twitter if you stick to the Cat and Epic fail videos. Whenever I see too much toxicity on there I just dial one side of Twitter down and the other side up. Simples!

Looking back on when I had it in March, I'd say as soon as it hits my chest - which for me was around day 7. However, my symptoms before then were pretty mild / non-existent, so if I had more flu-like symptoms in the early stages, I'd definitely be digging out the Home Trial contact details.

If the SP hasn't rocketed by April, I'll be opening another ISA and then doing some juggling around, buying shares in the new ISA and selling the same amount from my Fund and Share account at the same time. Although happy for a decent result before then, where paying some CGT is just a minor inconvenience !

Poor Man-eater. He / She's desperate for someone to listen. Most of us on this BB know which direction SNG is going.

Scinv, surely the price will be dictated by market forces and within that whether the 100k being made per month creates scarcity. However, if the comparison point is 'hospital stay' vs say Aspirin (at an extreme), then that plus any scarcity should see SNG001 start at a pretty high price.

What's very neat about one of the key primary end-points being 'time to hospital discharge' in the P3 trial is that it helps Synairgen make a clear link between the cost of SNG001 and days spent in a hospital - especially relevant in the US.
So the cost per treatment appears great value vs a longer hospital stay, rather than a comparison with another Covid drug or any other benchmark.
That might well mean that Synairgen can more easily command a higher price, have more long-term profitability perceptions and reality, which will reflect rather nicely on the share price of you SNG shares you're keeping tight in your pocket!

I pity the fool who was out of SNG last night.

Agree with Org / Seb's recent post ref making sure people don't get ganged-up upon or even bullied on here, as we may not be aware of their mental health situation. Not everyone is tough-skinned. And if Eva is from another culture then she may not be accustomed to the (mainly) British 'banter', and in particular our fondness to support the underdog and to put braggers in their place.
However, Eva you've got to play your part. Every time you talk about how well you've traded and how much you've earned as a result you've got to understand that you're bragging and as a result possibly making other people feel worse about their choices in some way, as a result (if they believe you). That might make you feel good, but will in turn create resentment and gain enemies rather than friends, as it would anyone here who put up similar posts.
I'm sure some might welcome your views on where the SNG share price might go too, if backed up with some insightful thinking and possibly similar views on other stock too (although this is a SNG section of LSE), just as they do from other well informed posters.
I have pondered if there's a bit of unconscious or conscious misogyny going on (if Eva is a woman?), however I think she'd be being treated broadly the same if she was a man.
So my suggestion Eva and everyone else... A fresh start... cut back on the bragging - all of us, and keep up the well informed views (especially on SNG) and if Eva or anyone else wants to change their approach, then others should cut her / them some slack.

I feel like a day trader by comparison! Although have shared all your anticipation, suffering, occasional delight and stubborn optimism since manic Monday.

I'm guessing anyone who hasn't been spooked by the big drop last month.

Agree on the political truce Golf. I love your posts. And will avoid all political chat when we have that big meet up in the champagne bar in Cap Ferrat ! ;-)

Is that REALLY the best benchmark for comparison Bruce? That ****-show !