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I think the lack of data for France (and the low number last month) is because they are now using the domain evesleep.fr, not evematelas.fr. Makes sense from the branding perspective, but not helpful for traffic numbers.
Yanis, I think your analysis is good, but people shouldn't have been expecting a TU with the AGM. I suspect a TU wouldn't have been well-received anyway because UK looks flat (on website traffic) and the significant cash use in France won't have had time to show a return. Hopefully by the half-year TU (expected July) there will be results from France. FWIW, I'm still well overweight but would add even more if we dip to 4.
Afraid I'm having a 'glass half full' day generally but that's too small to show much conviction and I read it to mean that there will be no interesting announcements at the AGM.
On the upside, it might attract some new investors who scan director buys.
Wyndrum,
Thanks. There is a lot of support around 4, but we have crashed through into the 3s a number of times and given current trading I wouldn't be surprised to see that again. I'm overweight (but on a free run) so not desperate to top up but it's increasingly tempting.
Bermondsey,
Yes - French sales are about a quarter of UK but website visits were one twentieth of UK last month, and down from 65000 to 10000. That seems strange to me - was there maybe no marketing at all while the new campaign was set up?
PS: There was a French website previously, I think the reference you found was just to it being reimplemented on a new platform.
The French website traffic is so low that I wonder if it is accurate?
PS: Promised myself a topup if we hit 4.5p (expecting that we wouldn't) but it feels like it's going even lower.
Sorry - meant revenue, obviously.
I don't understand the comments on this below. According to the annual results earnings were up only 6% last year and down 19% the year before?
Simple - never.
If I've understood their figures correctly, Finncap are forecasting free cash yield of - 22% which I calculate as 3.3m outflow at 15m marcap.
D-G, I don't see how they can make a loss this year and still conserve cash. They managed it last year with inventory reduction and return of a rent deposit but those were one-offs.
With the strength of selling, if we stay below 6 for much longer it's more likely we will get a spike down to maybe half your 8p.
We have traded sideways between 4p and 7p (excepting intraday spikes) since last August. Given all we know from the latest updates, I see that continuing until there are clear signs of sustainable profitability - currently indicated to be late 2022. It could then multi-bag quickly
when people believe sustainable profitability is indeed possible.
There is always the possibility of the unexpected, but I don't see a takeover happening or the management changing the 'slow and steady' approach to growth.
D-G, I believe the mattresses for France are made in Belgium anyway (DYOR, as I don't remember the source), so hopefully they can drop-shop to Benelux anyway if they can replicate the UK model over there.
We may get an unexpected spike for some reason, but on a solid basis 10p SP is maybe £2m profit at PE of 15.
2021 is forecast to be another significant loss, late 2022 might move into profit (still loss for the year?) So earliest for a £2m profit/ 10p SP looks like 2023 if all goes well or maybe a bit later if not.
I think we will get there, but it will need patience.
Arguably, the RNS wasn't 'great', it was pretty much as the market expected so the SP has stayed at the price the market set before it.
There were a couple of small positives for me - the statutory loss is better than I expected from the first half results and gross margin is up despite much of the trading bring during sale periods (one of my pre-results concerns).
The discrepancy between the statutary loss and the conservation of cash is explained by the reduction in inventory (I really don't like only having 2 weeks sales in inventory) and the reduction in receivables (including the return of a rent deposit and presumably the Boots cash) so that clears up another concern.
In summary, solid but not exciting. Still much more potential upside than downside IMO, but not immediate.
Definite change in chat quality from Friday to today. (BTW thanks to all for Friday - that was very useful and might end up saving me a few quid) . Not sure there's much to say before Thursday now, unless there is an interesting movement in SP or volume.
I already own too many shares where management seem happy to not make a profit. I would like to see Eve getting to profitability but then happy to stick on a small profit for a number of years while investing in growing the business.
Having said that, we desperately need to get big enough to cover Head Office costs. So overall, I'm on the fence.
Wyndrum, I appreciate your posts and did see that one. My interpretation of Cheryl's comment was just that she was pointing out to markets that Eve have the resources to make that investment (ie to stop the usual 'placing required' nonsense) not that she was implying that a significant outlay was needed. That purely based on me thinking that France is already a significant operation and with management having gone through the efficiency drive and additional product sourcing in the UK, then France should be 'easy' and hopefully investments early in the year would start to pay off during the year(net investment small over the year). Obviously lots of speculation there - hopefully we will have more to go on next week.
User, thanks for the recognition :-). My other shot was going to be that the Finncap numbers don't matter because that was before we became a major player in the CBD space.