Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Looks like Avis Verifies may be stuttering back into life. There are several reviews dated today, but the total recorded has only increased by 3. I plan to record numbers daily to see if we can make any sense or use of them.
https://www.avis-verifies.com/avis-clients/evesleep.fr
Looking at the MDR website, they don't seem to have done much for anybody. I liked them at the start - it fits nicely with Cheryl's agenda to expand the brand and get free(ish) publicity. I presume that Eve can now do this year's deal with Boots without MDR being involved. Finally, I don't know if we can blame MDR for the delays in getting the CBD products to market? Originally planned (in mid Q1) for Q2, then promised for Q3 and now apparently Q4 at best.
Are we expecting an investor Presentation in the next few days? Thanks.
I'm being offered 3.5-3.65 now
Indeed, but I like to think that by studying and researching over a period we have a chance of being ahead of the news.
The total hasn't moved since the 16th (earliest date I have) , so it does appear that reviews aren't being added which constantly brings the 12-month number down (phew!). Maybe that's related to the change of domain earlier in the year. Anyway, it does seem that we can't rely on any data from this at the moment.
D-G, I'll try to get my head round those figures after my second coffee, because there looks to be some contradiction between the total and the annual running numbers. One point I picked up from the A-V site is that they send review requests to all purchasers.
Agreed. We don't have recent official info so are trying to find what we can from other sources which can only give a very partial picture. I'm extrapolating from the one week of data I have (wish I'd spotted it earlier). Things we can't even guess (unless somebody has a source of information) like UK marketing spend could be more influential on profitability in the short term.
I've also been trying to understand the French reviews. Some of the dates seem to be dd/mm and some mm/dd, which doesn't help. There are different reviews at the top but all appear to be from July. The 'number of reviews in the last 12 months' does change daily and I have started recording it. Bad news, though, is that it's falling - 445 to 425 this week, which suggests we are selling less per day than a year ago, before the marketing campaign. Best estimate at the moment (revenues vs reviews) is that about 10% of sales are reviewed. A different pair of eyes might help develop the thinking on this.
Earlier today, I was on eve sleep.fr and found a link for reviews from there to a review site avis-verifies.com. At that time, it showed 462 reviews (overwhelmingly very positive) over the last 12 months but none since July. Now the link just says some French equivalent of 'eve sleep don't work with us any more'.
But no stats yet on France as far as I can see?
That would be key as it's where the investment is going at the moment.
Shame they've stopped showing the historical trends - I suppose they are trying to encourage paid subscriptions which is fair enough.
If you have that history, I would appreciate your comments as we get new numbers.
July stats are out. Up on last month, which is good as I haven't seen much marketing spend. France stats not showing yet.
Wongtogo,
Dare I (assuming I am one of those you accuse of talking the price down) politely suggest that if you think the market is too negative, maybe there's a chance you are being too positive?
I am invested because if we can get to profitability, the SP should multi-bag, maybe many times.
But what does profitability look like? 2020 was a £2M loss from a marketing contribution of £4.3M and revenue of £25.2M. Breakeven is £2M more on profit, and the same on marketing contribution (assuming HO costs constant). Multiplying up, I make that £37M revenue to achieve profitability. Obviously a lot of variables (up or down).
The TU refers to being on target for full year expectations, which sounds good. However, most people will see that as relating to the house broker's estimate which was (IIRC) £27M and therefore some way off my calculation of profitability. I suspect that's the main reason for the sell-off, especially by IIs - a bigger number was expected.
Now, we all know Cheryl likes beating the estimates, so let's take a more positive scenario. Say 18% (UK continues to do as well, and France catches up with the new adverts). 2021 would be £29.5M - better, but still not profitable. Another 18% in 2022 still wouldn't get us past the line. Another 18% in 2023 would (on my calcs) get us to £4M revenue above that needed for profit, and maybe £1M profit, supporting a share price around 6p-7p. Obviously, that's stretching the model but by early 2024 we could have doubled our money from here, hopefully more as the market looks forward.
But that's all assuming 18% growth and everything else staying the same. France might fly and get us there a lot quicker, or the wheels could come off for any one of a number of reasons. I tend to look for these, so I can hopefully have sold up before we get to that scenario.
If anybody has a different model, I would be interested to see what it is.
So - my concerns expressed yesterday were pretty much correct, not negative as some said. No pleasure in that as my holding is down like everybody else's.
One thing I liked which I haven't seen mentioned is that UK revenue grew by a bigger percentage than marketing spend.
Another thing I haven't seen mentioned is that the house broker said this morning that they are sticking with £27m revenue and £3.1m loss for 2021 (no forecast yet for 2022). That's fact, not me being negative.
It's disappointing when people I previously respected resort to personal comment rather than discussing facts and opinions. Yes - I did top up below 4 (at 3.91 and 3.8).
I don't believe that posts by anonymous people in this tiny corner of the Internet have a material effect on the SP.
As for my 'nowhere near profitable' comment, I didn't think that would need substantiating to anybody who has read and understood the 2020 results. Just remodel the revenue/marketing contribution/profit relationship.
Thanks for all the useful comments, but I remain without any specific reason to anticipate that this TU (as opposed to the longer-term prospects) should be unexpectedly positive, but let's hope it is!
Yanis, Thanks for that, but I saw it all at the time and the TU is about trading in the 3 months after that - how many people clicked 'buy' on the website and how much profit or loss was created.
Why are people expecting a positive update? Website traffic and TP reviews point to a slight increase in revenue but nowhere near enough to achieve profitability, even ignoring the investment in France. The only potential positive I can see would be a strong response in France, but there is quite a lot of potential for negative news (cash usage, poor response in France, margin pressure, supply problems).
To amplify Balanced66's point, stop loss trades are done at market price at the time HL manage to place the trade, not the stop loss price. That was probably sub 5p.