The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
With HH production costs so low, 25 year production licience in place, new wells planned and presumably ever improving flow rates Alba's share of HH must be of interest to potential buyers...
Igas has a relationship with UKOG already and any move by them or another Oiler or investment group could send Alba's share price souring..
All speculative of course but Alba are willing sellers at the right price which must attract interest..
Imo etc
The increased action over at UKOG has to be good news for Alba..
Maybe a leak regards HH ??
With UKOG churning big volumes it could also lead to another big raise...Perhaps it's time for Alba to take some cash and shares from UKOG...
Interesting valuation on HH...
Horse Hill – This is valued just on its production potential under current Surrey
County Council permissions (up to 3,500 bopd for 25 years). If an exploration value
is added, the eventual sum could be considerably more, as previous independent
technical reports have alluded. But as the management have flagged their willingness
to dispose of the stake if a reasonable offer is received, we thought it prudent just to
ascribe a production value, as Alba may not own the asset long enough to benefit
from its eventual exploration and production upside.
Our estimates assume oil will slowly rebound to $60 per barrel by 2023, with costs
per barrel rising 12% p.a. from the current $13 for the next 5 years, and production
ramping up to 3,500 bopd by the fourth year of operation. A post-tax project NPV of
$236.7m is computed using a 10% discount rate. Assuming a project to equity value
of 50%, the value of Alba’s 11.765% stake comes to an estimated $13.9m (£11.1m).
At £11.1m, this values each 1% of Alba’s interest at £947K. This is a premium to the
£342K per 1% achieved by Magellan Petroleum (UK), when it sold its 35% interest
to UK Oil & Gas plc for £12m in cash and shares in September 2019. We believe
Magellan may have sold its interest too cheaply.
Interesting numbers for HH in new Alba Broker note ...
Horse Hill – This is valued just on its production potential under current Surrey
County Council permissions (up to 3,500 bopd for 25 years). If an exploration value
is added, the eventual sum could be considerably more, as previous independent
technical reports have alluded. But as the management have flagged their willingness
to dispose of the stake if a reasonable offer is received, we thought it prudent just to
ascribe a production value, as Alba may not own the asset long enough to benefit
from its eventual exploration and production upside.
Our estimates assume oil will slowly rebound to $60 per barrel by 2023, with costs
per barrel rising 12% p.a. from the current $13 for the next 5 years, and production
ramping up to 3,500 bopd by the fourth year of operation. A post-tax project NPV of
$236.7m is computed using a 10% discount rate. Assuming a project to equity value
of 50%, the value of Alba’s 11.765% stake comes to an estimated $13.9m (£11.1m).
At £11.1m, this values each 1% of Alba’s interest at £947K. This is a premium to the
£342K per 1% achieved by Magellan Petroleum (UK), when it sold its 35% interest
to UK Oil & Gas plc for £12m in cash and shares in September 2019. We believe
Magellan may have sold its interest too cheaply.
Over the past 5 months the BOD have invested heavily in new machines and assuming this strategy works over the coming weeks and months I can see them adding more and more kit to maximise revenue..
ARB seem to be in a very good position to capitalise going forward with no debt (small loan paid off in June)
..unaffected by the 'v' thing and Bitcoin price/ mining difficulty both going in the right directions..
Certainly an interesting share to be in but costs need to be addressed
If you haven't watched Jeff before you're in for a treat..
He gets into Bitcoin at about 30 mins but I would recommend watching all of his videos on YouTube (that haven't been deleted) and those on *****ute that are not deleted by the YouTube we know what you should watch Police..
https://youtu.be/F042gGReObc
If your into Bitcoin this might be a good watch..
Live Now: https://youtu.be/d2lWczBym3s
CEO of BRD and BlockSet Explains the Most Likely Outcomes from the Bitcoin Halving;
https://youtu.be/46Ty0K835LI