Member Info for drinky01

Ha ha ha, you plonker. I used your numbers. You being a dirty little liar again?

Bubblepoint,

Nobody is claiming that Saltfleetby will not decline. Every gas field declines eventually. The debate is about the rate of decline and whether the published data supports your claimed 8% figure.

You appear to be conflating two entirely separate issues.

Firstly, yes, production had fallen to around 45k therms/day by January due to liquid loading and associated operational issues. The workover programme was undertaken specifically to address that problem. On the evidence of the published daily production data, it succeeded. Production increased from an average of 44.8k therms/day in January to around 60k therms/day from April onwards - an increase of approximately 34%.

Secondly, on the question of current decline rates, you have stated repeatedly that production is down by around 8%. Looking at the published daily data, I cannot reproduce that figure. If I use what I regard as a more representative post-optimisation period from April onwards, the 30-day running average falls from approximately 60.4k therms/day at the end of April to around 58.1k therms/day by 21 June, a decline of about 3.8%.

If you are using a different methodology, then by all means show the calculations. Simply asserting an 8% decline does not make it so.

As for the share price, we all make our own investment decisions. You sold at higher levels and have every right to be pleased with that. Equally, others may take a different view based on future gas prices, reserves, debt reduction and operational performance.

Facts and calculations are more useful than insults.

So I can state the fact that you sir are a liar and I’ve used your missing calculations to prove that.

Have a great day all x

You have showed yourself up as a liar for all to see.

Mirasol,

A 30-day running average is a sensible metric, but using mid-March as the starting point seems arbitrary given that Angus was still optimising the wells and plant following the workovers. Peak rates achieved during this period do not necessarily represent sustainable long-term production.

Most independent statisticians would probably choose a point at which the wells had settled down and management had established the most sensible and sustainable operating regime for both the wells and compressors. A more representative baseline would therefore arguably be April onwards, once operations had stabilised.

Using the published daily production data, the 30-day running average at the end of April was approximately 60.4k therms/day, compared with around 58.1k therms/day by 21 June - a decline of about 3.8%.

On that basis, the claimed 8% decline appears to have been made up. Even using a 30-day running average methodology, I cannot reproduce anything close to an 8% fall from the published daily data.

All gas fields decline eventually, but without reservoir pressure data, well test data and an updated CPR, it is impossible to determine how much of the recent softening is due to normal reservoir decline and how much is attributable to operational downtime, maintenance and plant optimisation.

Bubblepoint,

You asked for the last six months, so here they are:

January 2026: 44,762 therms/day

February 2026: 54,720 therms/day

March 2026: 63,110 therms/day

April 2026: 60,060 therms/day

May 2026: 59,440 therms/day

June 2026 (to 21 June): 60,220 therms/day

Over the last six months production has increased from 44,762 therms/day in January to 60,220 therms/day in June.

That’s an increase of 34.5%.

So, if we’re genuinely evaluating production over the last six months as you requested, the trend is clearly up, not down.

The data speaks for itself.

Latest reported production figures continue to demonstrate stable output at Saltfleetby:

20 Jun: 2,025,556 kWh (~64,100 therms)

21 Jun: 1,997,778 kWh (~63,220 therms)

22 Jun: 1,992,047 kWh (~63,040 therms)

23 Jun: 1,973,484 kWh (~62,450 therms)

24 Jun: 1,965,501 kWh (~62,200 therms)

25 Jun: 1,988,839 kWh (~62,940 therms)

The last six reported days are averaging approximately 63,000 therms/day, continuing the pattern of stable production broadly in line with the company’s post-workover guidance.

Based on the complete daily data reported so far, June (1-25 June) is now averaging approximately 60,500 therms/day.

For comparison:

April 2026: 60,060 therms/day

May 2026: 59,440 therms/day

June 2026 (1-25): 60,500 therms/day

June is therefore currently running ahead of both April and May.

I still cannot see any numbers supporting Bubblepoint’s repeated claim of an “8% decline”. Based on the daily production data reported by the company, June is currently outperforming both April and May.

Latest reported production figures continue to demonstrate stable output at Saltfleetby:

20 Jun: 2,025,556 kWh (~64,100 therms)

21 Jun: 1,997,778 kWh (~63,220 therms)

22 Jun: 1,992,047 kWh (~63,040 therms)

23 Jun: 1,973,484 kWh (~62,450 therms)

24 Jun: 1,965,501 kWh (~62,200 therms)

The last five reported days are averaging approximately 63,000 therms/day.

Also today’s price isn’t history.

Bubbles, the sunshine bus has just turned up I suggest you get back on the smarties and you might stop bouncing off the walls. Enjoy your afternoon window licking.

Let the adults have the sensible conversations but you are playing an important role for all those that wish to buy in at a discount. I’m not sure you have any influence or IQ to do that but fill your boots.

History shows that the market often prices in future events well before they happen.

In March 2022, following planning approval at Saltfleetby, ANGS traded around 0.95p. By first gas in August 2022, sentiment and expectations had taken the shares to 2.45p.

I suspect the same principle could apply here. If production remains strong, debt reduces and the company progresses towards the Fourth Well, the market may begin pricing in that growth long before the drill bit turns.

For me, the biggest upside opportunity may lie in the build-up to the Fourth Well rather than the day it is drilled.

Bubble, during a 14-month suspension none of us had the final restructuring terms, dilution figure, debt package, ORRI outcome or relisting timetable. Everything discussed was therefore an educated assessment based on the information available at the time.

The reason I thought 0.5-0.7p was achievable was because the business itself had materially improved during the suspension. Production increased by around 30% following the Saltfleetby workovers and that uplift has been maintained. The hedge book was extended through to June 2027 at around 100p/therm, protecting revenues, and the company demonstrated that it was generating meaningful cash.

As it turns out, the dilution has come in at around 38%, which is pretty close to the 30-40% range I had been discussing for months. That’s a better forecasting record than your repeatedly stated “8% decline FACT”, which, unless I missed it, was never actually supported by any numbers despite several requests.

We now have the actual terms and, frankly, I think the outcome is better than many expected. Existing shareholders retain around 62% of the enlarged company, the debt has been pushed out to 2031, the ORRI issue has largely been removed, Forum has converted debt into equity, £3m of fresh capital has been raised and the company is now funded for growth rather than simply survival.

Will it open at 0.6p? I haven’t got a clue, and neither have you. The market will decide that on 14 July.

What I do know is that Angus has emerged from suspension in a materially stronger operational and financial position than it entered it, and that is a far more important fact than trying to score points over price predictions made during a suspension.

Based on today’s RNS, assuming shareholders approve the resolutions on 13 July, the company expects Admission and restoration of trading to occur on 14 July 2026. For the first time in over a year, shareholders now have a clear and credible timetable for relisting.

The fundraising and restructuring have been completed at 0.2p per share, which should provide a natural floor for the market. Personally, I would not be surprised to see the shares trade in the 0.25p-0.35p range initially, particularly given how much stronger the business now appears operationally.

Whilst shareholders have experienced approximately 38% dilution, the package itself looks significantly better than many had feared. The balance sheet has been materially strengthened, the Trafigura facility has been extended to 2031 at a lower cost of capital, Forum has converted its deferred consideration into equity, the ORRI overhang has largely been removed and £3m of fresh growth capital has been secured.

Importantly, this is no longer a business simply fighting for survival. Management has confirmed that the approximately 30% uplift in production following the Saltfleetby workovers has been maintained, the business is now generating meaningful cash flow and plans are already progressing for a fourth well, targeted for Q1 2027 with an expected payback period of around 12 months.

Overall, I think this RNS marks a genuine turning point for the company. Angus is emerging from suspension with a simplified capital structure, supportive major stakeholders, improved financing terms and a clear route to growth. If management continues to execute operationally as they have over recent months, there appears to be a realistic opportunity for shareholders to see meaningful value created over the coming years.

You keep saying “8% decline FACT” but decline from what?

The monthly averages are:

April: 60,060 therms/day

May: 59,440 therms/day

June (to date): 60,220 therms/day

June is currently ahead of both April and May.

If your 8% figure is correct, it should be easy enough to show the calculation and the period you’re measuring against.

I’ve posted the monthly averages. Where are your numbers?

The “8% decline, FACT” claim doesn’t really survive contact with the actual data.

Looking only at the last three months:

April: 60,060 therms/day

May: 59,440 therms/day

June (to date): 60,220 therms/day

May was about 1.0% below April.

June is currently 1.3% above May and slightly ahead of April.

So where exactly is this 8% decline supposed to be hiding?

The latest reported day was 63,220 therms, effectively back at the company’s original 63–64k therm/day guidance level, and if the last two days’ production rates were maintained through month-end, June would finish even stronger.

Looking at the full monthly averages rather than cherry-picking a few weaker days, production appears to have been remarkably stable around the 60k therm/day level over the last three months.

Just saying

Following the softer days on 18 and 19 June (55,429 and 53,378 therms respectively), production has rebounded strongly:

20 Jun: 69,133 therms

21 Jun: 68,184 therms

June is now averaging approximately 62,800 therms/day despite several temporary dips during the month.

Meanwhile UK gas has recovered to around 101p/therm, almost exactly in line with Angus’s forward hedge average through to June 2027. The recent volatility has therefore brought spot prices back towards the level that appears to have been assumed in the company’s hedge strategy and refinancing discussions.

If production were to maintain the average of the last two days (68,659 therms/day) through to month-end, June would finish at approximately 64,600 therms/day, which would be one of the strongest monthly averages reported since the workovers.

Following the 12 June dip to 46,094 therms, production has now delivered five consecutive days between 64k and 66k therms/day:

13 Jun: 65,173

14 Jun: 65,986

15 Jun: 64,773

16 Jun: 64,282

17 Jun: 64,693

June is now averaging approximately 63,100 therms/day despite the two temporary dips on 8 and 12 June.

The pattern continues to look very similar to what we’ve seen repeatedly since March: short-term interruptions followed by a return to the mid-60k therm/day range.

With spot gas now around 97p/therm and the June hedge around 127p/therm, the hedge book is doing exactly what it was designed to do by protecting revenues during periods of weakness in gas prices.

It’s also worth remembering that the longer-term hedge position averages around 101p/therm through to June 2027. In hindsight, that suggests management and the lenders were not assuming gas would remain at 120–140p/therm indefinitely. The current move back towards 100p/therm is broadly consistent with the pricing assumptions embedded in those hedge commitments, so a degree of gas price normalisation appears to have been factored into the refinancing discussions already.

I like the way you think you have enough influence to get the herd running for the door. You have just proved how deluded you really are.

The June dip now looks very similar to the pattern we’ve already seen several times this year.

8 June came in at 37,006 therms, but the following two days recovered to 65,706 therms and 65,366 therms respectively.

June month-to-date production is currently averaging 64,033 therms/day.

At the same time, UK gas is trading around 120p/therm, while Angus’s June hedge is around 127p/therm.

Projected June gas production at the current average:

64,033 therms/day × 30 days = approximately 1.92 million therms.

Estimated June gas revenue:

* 600,000 therms hedged at 127p = approximately £762k

* 1.32 million therms at approximately 120p spot = approximately £1.59m

Estimated total gas revenue:

Approximately £2.35m

Estimated condensate contribution:

Approximately £110k–£130k

Estimated June gross field revenue:

Approximately £2.46m–£2.48m

If production continues at the 65–67k therm/day range seen before and after the June 8 dip, June gross field revenue would be closer to £2.6m+.

The June dip appears to be following the same pattern as the dips seen in March, April and May, with production recovering back towards normal levels within a couple of days.

67,540 therms/day (June average, 1–6 June 2026)

6 June 2026: 67,440 therms

June production remains very stable, with the latest day almost exactly in line with the month’s average.