Member Info for drinky01

If you ask simple stupid questions to AI then you get stupid answers:

What do you value the asset at and what % of dilution do you expect. I have the answer according to various outcomes but you tell me what you expect and I’ll give you your answer.

Softer interruption

One operational interpretation discussed was that increasing condensate production may occasionally require intervention or temporary flow restriction before higher flow rates are restored.

The Q1 operational update reported condensate production averaging approximately:

~111 barrels/day

which represented roughly:

~32% quarter-on-quarter growth.

Potential operational factors discussed included:

- Condensate accumulation

- Separator loading

- Compressor optimisation

- Liquids handling constraints

- Pressure management cycles

While this cannot be proven from export data alone, the repeated pattern of:

high flow → interruption → rapid recovery

appears more consistent with operational management cycles than with a simple continuous reservoir collapse narrative.

5. UK Gas Price Environment

UK gas prices moved from roughly:

~70–80p/therm in January 2026

to approximately:

~115–125p/therm during May 2026.

The broader discussion concluded that the UK gas market now appears structurally tighter and more geopolitically sensitive than pre-2022 conditions.

Key drivers discussed included:

- European LNG dependency

- Middle East tensions

- Strait of Hormuz shipping risks

- European storage competition

- Global LNG pricing dynamics

The market has repeatedly shown:

higher lows + rerating spikes

rather than returning sustainably to older pre-2022 pricing norms.

6. Hedge Position & Revenue Context

March 2026 hedge update:

- ~44% of forecast production hedged

- May hedge pricing around ~135p/therm

- Total hedge portfolio average around ~101p through June 2027

Estimated May 2026 revenue assumptions:

- Production ~2.0M therms/month

- Blended realised gas price ~123–126p/therm

- Estimated gas revenue ~£2.4M–£2.6M

- Estimated condensate contribution ~£80k–£150k

- Estimated total monthly revenue ~£2.5M–£2.75M+

At current production levels and gas pricing, the field increasingly appears operationally cash generative.

7. Overall Interpretation

Across January–May 2026, the data increasingly suggests:

- A meaningful production uplift following workovers/compressor changes

- Multi-month stability around the mid-60k therm/day range

- Repeated recoveries into the ~70k+ range

- Stronger gas pricing than earlier in the year

- Improved hedge protection and condensate contribution

Operationally, the export data increasingly resembles:

stable high-flow plateau

+ periodic interruptions

+ gradual natural softening

rather than an obvious accelerating decline profile.

The debate therefore increasingly appears to have shifted away from:

“Can the field produce commercially?”

and more toward:

“How much long-term value can ultimately be generated from the producing asset?”

Angus Energy – Production & Operational Analysis

Summary of operational trends, UK gas pricing, production averages, and export data observations from January–May 2026.

1. Production Trend Overview

| Month | Average Therms/Day |

|---|---|

| January 2026 | ~45–46k |

| February 2026 | ~60.7k |

| March 2026 | ~67.8k |

| April 2026 | ~65.1k |

| May 2026 (to 16 May) | ~64.7k |

Production appears to have materially improved from mid-February onward, with the field stepping up from ~35–45k therm/day levels into a sustained ~65–70k+ therm/day operational plateau.

The progression now broadly looks like:

- January → transitional / lower-flow phase

- February → major operational uplift begins

- March → strongest individual production days recorded

- April → stabilisation around mid-60k therm/day range

- May → longest sustained run around ~70k therm/day despite interruption days

The rolling 3-month average across March–May currently sits around:

~65.9k therms/day

which suggests the post-workover uplift has broadly held across multiple months rather than fading immediately after the intervention work.

2. Longest Sustained High-Flow Run

While some individual March days reached slightly higher peak rates, May 2026 represented the longest sustained operational run around the ~70k therm/day range post-workover.

- 6 May → ~73.9k therms/day

- 7 May → ~72.9k therms/day

- 8 May → ~70.5k therms/day

- 9 May → ~70.1k therms/day

- 10 May → ~72.1k therms/day

- 11 May → ~72.9k therms/day

- 14 May → ~72.6k therms/day

Repeated recoveries back toward ~70k+ therms after softer interruption days increasingly suggest:

stable high-flow plateau + periodic interruptions

rather than an obvious accelerating decline profile.

Top 10 Individual Production Days

1. 21 Mar 2026 → ~74.9k therms/day

2. 12 Mar 2026 → ~74.4k therms/day

3. 20 Mar 2026 → ~73.9k therms/day

4. 6 May 2026 → ~73.9k therms/day

5. 25 Mar 2026 → ~73.8k therms/day

6. 24 Mar 2026 → ~73.6k therms/day

7. 13 Mar 2026 → ~73.5k therms/day

8. 22 Mar 2026 → ~73.5k therms/day

9. 15 Mar 2026 → ~73.3k therms/day

10. 7 May 2026 → ~72.9k therms/day

The strongest individual production days were largely concentrated in March shortly after the post-workover uplift became established.

However, May appears to have produced the longest sustained operational run at elevated rates.

4. Pattern of Lower Volume Days & Condensate Theory

From March onward, the export data increasingly showed a repeating operational pattern of:

high plateau flow

→ temporary lower-flow interruption

→ rapid recovery back toward ~70k+ therms/day

The softer interruption days appeared to recur on a fairly loose:

~7–12 day cycle

Examples included:

- 7 Mar → softer interruption

- 19 Mar → softer interruption

- 8–9 Apr → softer interruption cluster

- 19 Apr → softer interruption

- 27 Apr → softer interruption

- 2–3 May → softer interruption cluster

- 13 May → soft

With gas around ~110–115p and hedging around ~100p, realised pricing is broadly in that ~108–112p range, so still a solid level for cashflow.

Early May numbers (kWh → therms):

1 May ~64.5k

2 May ~44.8k

3 May ~41.9k

4 May ~70.7k

Looks like another maintenance dip on the 2nd–3rd, but straight back to ~70k+ on the 4th — same pattern we saw in late April.

So the short-term averages can look softer, but the actual run-rate when it’s flowing is still holding up around that ~70k level.

As long as it keeps returning to ~70k+ after these dips, that’s the level the market is likely to focus on rather than the short-term averages.

01 Mar – 69,300

02 Mar – 49,900

03 Mar – 71,000

04 Mar – 70,900

05 Mar – 68,200

06 Mar – 60,100

07 Mar – 44,100

08 Mar – 72,500

09 Mar – 71,400

10 Mar – 71,900

11 Mar – 62,500

12 Mar – 74,400

13 Mar – 73,600

14 Mar – 72,800

15 Mar – 73,200

16 Mar – 71,000

17 Mar – 64,900

18 Mar – 57,800

19 Mar – 48,200

20 Mar – 73,900

21 Mar – 74,900

22 Mar – 73,500

23 Mar – 69,100

Average for the 23 days =68,400 therms/day

Angus Energy – March 2026 Production & Revenue Snapshot

Production (1–21 March)

Total volume: ~1,405,000 therms

Average: ~66,900 therms/day

Normalised run-rate: ~71,800 therms/day

⸻

Gas Price (March average)

~135p–145p range

Modelled at ~140p per therm

⸻

Revenue (Gas Only)

Daily:

~66,900 × £1.40 ≈ £93,700/day

Run-rate (normalised):

~72,000 × £1.40 ≈ £100,800/day

⸻

Monthly Equivalent

~£2.8M – £3.1M per month

⸻

Annualised (Gas Only)

~£34M – £38M per year

⸻

Simple View

~70k therms/day at ~140p gas

→ ~£100k/day revenue

→ ~£35M/year gas

⸻

Key Takeaway

• Production has stabilised around ~70k+ therms/day

• Gas pricing remains strong (~140p average)

• Revenue at current levels is ~£35M/year (gas only)

This is based on actual March production data and realistic pricing, not peak assumptions.

By that logic, every business that ends a month with no cash has OPEX equal to its revenue… which isn’t quite how it works.

The suspension might have been triggered by the proposed transaction, but once that fell away and the debt issues came to the front, the priority had to change. That’s not unusual — companies pivot to whatever the immediate risk is.

You can laugh at it, but the reality is the only thing that matters now is whether they land the restructuring and get back trading. Everything else is just noise at this point.

Bubbles

I think that’s a bit of a stretch to be honest.

The suspension may well have started around the proposed transaction, but once that fell away and the debt position became the real issue, the focus naturally shifted to restructuring — that’s not unusual, it’s just how these situations evolve.

Defaulting on debt doesn’t mean there was some grand “smokescreen”, it usually just means the balance sheet wasn’t sustainable in its current form. From that point on, restructuring becomes the only viable route.

You can question how things were handled historically, that’s fair enough, but where we are now is about whether they can get a deal agreed and move forward — not what the original narrative was months ago.

If they land the restructuring, that’s what ultimately matters.

I think there’s been a bit of confusion between the original reason for suspension and where things have ended up.

From what I understand, the suspension initially related to the proposed transaction (the Gulf of Mexico assets / potential RTO angle), but once that didn’t progress, the focus shifted pretty quickly onto the balance sheet and refinancing.

Since then, it’s effectively become a restructuring story — creditor negotiations, debt alignment, and trying to stabilise the company financially.

So the RNS might feel a bit odd if you’re thinking back to the original reason for suspension, but the situation has evolved. The main issue now isn’t the transaction anymore, it’s getting the debt sorted so they can actually move forward and return to trading.

Bubblepoint, if you’re holding shares and that’s genuinely how you feel, then relisting is your opportunity.

Once trading resumes, you can make your call — either back it or sell up and move on. If confidence isn’t there, that’s the time to act rather than keep going over the same ground.

Sell up and shut up — simple as that

Interesting how the whole “automatic delisting under Rule 41” narrative has quietly disappeared now.

As it turns out, AIM Rule 41 doesn’t automatically cancel a listing the moment 6 months passes — it gives the Exchange the option to cancel, and that requires a formal notice. Until that happens, the company remains admitted, just suspended.

That distinction was dismissed at the time, but it’s actually quite important. The idea that Angus had already been “effectively delisted” was presented as fact when it clearly wasn’t.

Fair enough to debate the fundamentals or the restructuring outcome, but it does show why it’s worth separating what the rules actually say from how they’re sometimes interpreted on here.

Hi Rusty,

I don’t think anyone can give a firm answer on survival until the debt restructuring terms are known — that’s really the key piece of the puzzle.

What can be said is that operationally things look better than they did. Production has improved and current gas/oil prices are supportive, so the asset itself appears capable of generating decent cashflow.

The unknown is how that cashflow is allocated — i.e. how much goes to servicing debt versus what’s left for shareholders. That will ultimately determine both dilution and upside.

So it’s probably fair to say survival looks more likely than it did before, but the outcome for shareholders is still very dependent on the terms we haven’t seen yet.

Best to wait for the RNS rather than draw firm conclusions either way but I’m much happier than I was a few months ago.

Cheers

With Brent at ~$111/bbl (≈£85), a realistic realised oil price for Angus is likely in the £70–£80/bbl range. At current production of ~50 barrels/day from Brockham, this equates to approximately £1.3M–£1.4M annual oil revenue.

Combined with updated condensate estimates of ~£2.4M–£2.7M per year (based on ~100–115 bbl/day), total liquids revenue is therefore in the region of £3.7M–£4.1M annually.

At the same time, UK gas prices are currently trading around 140p/therm, implying total gas revenue in the region of £34M–£35M based on current production levels.

This brings total potential annual revenue to approximately £38M–£39M, representing a materially stronger financial position than historical reported periods.

With Brent at ~$110/bbl (≈£85), condensate is likely to realise approximately £60–£75 per barrel after typical quality and market discounts.

Applying this to an estimated production range of 100–115 barrels per day suggests annual condensate revenue in the region of £2.4M–£2.7M (base case), with potential to exceed £3M at the upper end of pricing.

Using Angus’ Q4 2025 data (7,739 barrels condensate from 4.98 million therms), the implied condensate yield is ~0.00155 barrels per therm.

Applying this to current production of ~67,300 therms/day gives an estimated condensate rate of ~104 barrels/day.

Allowing for additional gas used on-site (not reflected in export figures), a normalised range would be ~100–115 barrels/day.

At £50–£70 per barrel, this equates to approximately £2.0M–£2.6M annual condensate revenue.

This represents a material increase from the Q4 run-rate (~84 bbl/day), consistent with improved well performance following recent workovers and optimisation.

It should be noted that condensate does not scale perfectly linearly with gas production. Yields can vary depending on reservoir pressure, well conditions, and fluid composition. However, in a stable operating regime, using recent field data as a yield proxy provides a reasonable approximation of current performance.

The key point people are missing is that this isn’t a pre-production or “hope” story it’s already generating cash.

Using actual March data, Saltfleetby is producing ~70k therms/day, which is ~2.1m therms/month.

From the March hedge update:

• 44% hedged at ~101p

• 56% exposed to spot (~130p)

That gives a blended price of ~117p.

So roughly

• £2.5m/month revenue

• ~£30m/year revenue

• ~£18–22m/year operating cash flow

Yes — there’s ~£29m of debt. No one is ignoring that.

But that’s exactly the point:

At ~£20m/year cash flow, the asset can now service and materially reduce that debt over a relatively short period, especially with more than half the production still exposed to strong gas prices.

The hedge gives lenders certainty, not a cap on the business.

So the outcome isn’t “no upside” — it’s

• some dilution (likely)

• but supported by real cash generation

• with ongoing exposure to high gas prices

The actual debate now isn’t survival — it’s how the refinance is structured and how much equity is issued.

That’s a very different situation to where this was 12 months ago.

Saltfleetby Production – March 2026

01/03/2026 – 2,030,000 kWh (69,267 therms)

02/03/2026 – 1,463,333 kWh (49,930 therms)

03/03/2026 – 2,081,111 kWh (71,012 therms)

04/03/2026 – 2,076,667 kWh (70,860 therms)

05/03/2026 – 1,998,889 kWh (68,201 therms)

06/03/2026 – 1,761,111 kWh (60,090 therms)

07/03/2026 – 1,293,333 kWh (44,132 therms)

08/03/2026 – 2,125,556 kWh (72,526 therms)

09/03/2026 – 2,092,222 kWh (71,389 therms)

10/03/2026 – 2,106,667 kWh (71,882 therms)

11/03/2026 – 1,831,111 kWh (62,482 therms)

12/03/2026 – 2,181,111 kWh (74,423 therms)

13/03/2026 – 2,155,556 kWh (73,551 therms)

14/03/2026 – 2,133,333 kWh (72,793 therms)

15/03/2026 – 2,146,667 kWh (73,248 therms)

16/03/2026 – 2,082,222 kWh (71,049 therms)

⸻

Average daily production:

1,972,431 kWh

~67,300 therms/day

⸻

Context / Interpretation

• Normal running level is around 70,000–74,000 therms/day

• Lower days (2nd, 6th, 7th) are likely operational interruptions rather than reservoir performance

Importantly, these figures reflect sales gas only. Some gas is currently being used on-site for generators and operations, which is not included in exported volumes.

As generator usage reduces, more gas will be exported rather than consumed. This means reported production should increase, and the true field output is already higher than shown.

A normalised view would likely place production closer to 70k+ therms/day.