RE: Realism13 Jan 2026 22:43
for fairness, i thought i'd ask my friend to review and respond to sharetraders more positively charged post.
good post, and i agree with the framework you’re using even if some of the timelines and outcomes are still aspirational.
where i think you’re absolutely right is stripping the emotion out and asking the only question that matters: does ufo own exposure to assets whose upside materially exceeds the current market value? on that basis alone, it’s hard to argue the current valuation fully reflects eh + munni munni + han****.
on elizabeth hill, the key point for me is optionality. eh already has a mining lease, it’s brownfield, and radio hill is close by with permits, tailings and infrastructure in place. whether it’s staged gravity runs, toll treatment, or a partner-led development, there are multiple credible pathways to first silver that don’t require a full-scale greenfield build. the exact route will matter, but the direction of travel is what’s important.
that said, i’d temper expectations on timing and quantum. mining rarely moves as fast or as smoothly as the best-case scenarios, even with high grades. the upside is real, but it’s still execution-dependent, and the market won’t price in a$100m cashflows until there’s a dtm and a locked-in processing route.
your point on ufo funding is also fair. ufo doesn’t have to farm down its 30% — that’s a choice, not a requirement. between selling some wce shares at higher levels, structured funding, or partner-led capex, there are far more levers than just defaulting to a royalty.
munni munni is similar in that respect. a large, mostly m&i pgm resource with a free carry to bfs is not something many juniors can point to. it’s earlier in the timeline, but it’s also where ufo’s risk is structurally capped.
where i’d slightly disagree with the more bearish posters is the idea that “nothing matters until production.” on aim, the re-rate usually comes at resources, jvs, dtms, or funding structures — not first ore. that doesn’t guarantee upside, but it explains why markets can move sharply once uncertainty compresses.
in short: optimism needs discipline, but outright write-offs ignore how different ufo’s structure is today versus years ago. it’s no longer about hype — it’s about whether one or two of these pathways convert into facts. that’s the bet, and everyone has to size it accordingly.
Sign In
Follow the stocks
