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You cannt compare valuations from 2016 when the number of shares in issue were different as was the percentage ownership.
The TE5 horst has substantial value, but the return is dependent on the funding mechanism, the interest rates associated with the funding and the GSA. A 12 inch pipeline (20 inch in the latest presentation) is larger than we need, but at 60mmscfpd this gives production for for over 13 years. On my sums, with 8% interest and $8 gas ($168M revenue per year on 350 days producing per year), funded the whole development ourselves, the debt will be paid off in 5 years (this assumes 2 years to build with no production) and then the cash flows are marvelous. Now I know we are not funding this all ourselves and the consortium profit has to be paid, however as a confidence exercise, we are undervalued now.
The derampers (those producing tens of negative posts per day) unfortunately restrict real discussion and will bang on with what ever satisfies their agenda.
Looking at q4 presentation the tagi doesn't start till 2500
You are not just just stating an alternative view, but repeating and repeating which smacks of an agenda. So much effort on a Sunday?
Since we cannt agree on the value of the asset, it would be interesting to assess the return per year expected for the BOOT. This may show some indication of the expectation of the ultimate assets owners. US$184 million of development capital that is bank funded (they will want interest) and US$45 million income per annum (worst case) for 15 years.
Please show your detailed working.
Gas is in demand and companies have a demand for assets that provide good returns. There is no need to discount the discounts and then take some more off to get to the asset price.
Does anyone have the map coordinates for TE9 and TE10?
Eric thanks for link, however is this comparable due to the following:
"In conclusion, besides gravity flow, the channel deposits
were reformed by bottom current, such as internal tide, so the
mud in the reservoirs has been washed away in large quantity,
resulting in a shale content of less than 10%. Therefore, different
from common reservoirs formed by gravity flow, the
axial channel sand bodies are characterized by good sorting
and low shale content. "
Does any one know of other locations where similar geology has succeeded in the axial channel as opposed to in the alluvial fans? As I understand it TE10 is also in the channel.
If there is the single existing find, a purchaser keeps the infrastructure arrangement they will need to fund wells and the purchase of all of the interests in Tendrara. What percentage return could they expect on that investment?
On my sums, if they spent £400M on SOU they would make £372M return. (that assumes running the find dry in ten years during which they pay the max for BOOT)(Well head opex is a little uncertain)
Following on:
1 bcf / 1 mcf = 1 million
1 mcf = $8
1 million x $8 = $8m
£5m x 377bcf = £1.885 billon (0.377tcf)
47.5% = £895,375,000
10 years of infrastructure costs ($45m per year) is $450m, ($213m to Sou)
20 wells (guess) at $15m each (guess) is $300m ($142.5m to Sou)
10 years of Opex at $40m per year (guess based on GKP costs) is $400m ($190m to SOU)
Total cost to SOU for 10 years $545. In pounds thats £426m
So excluding corporate costs, profit around £426m to be made in 10 years if the gas can be all drawn down in that time. There is value here for someone even if you do some sensitivity analysis against the guesses. That also doesnt take into account the possible and probable numbers.
Gas is in a bull market and the forward pricing through the years gets better and better!!
The 4.9 is restricted shares and options. I don't know know the balance between the two but he will need to pay for the options. It is not accurate for people to say he has 4.9 million shares.
In the last 7 days when the volume has increased, around 32m shares have been traded. That is out of over a billion shares in issue, i.e. less than 3%. If there is a leak, it has not spread far.
Over the 7 days the volume has been fairly steady, ranging from 4 to 5 million shares per day. If there was a leak, you would think there would be a greater rush to the door in the first couple of days.
Doesnt appear that TE10 and TE11 are back to back. There doesnt seem to be enough of a gap between though to rethink if TE9 and TE10 arent as expected.
The markets continues to fall heavily out of hours, just because SOU falls doesnt mean its a SOU issue. People need to liquidate assets...any assets...will cause hit low volume shares.
Low volume move. Nothing scary in the trades
Europe's gas prices are up, should give up more leverage with the gas negotiations
I believe the stated cos is for the tagi and the palezoic is on top
Do we have a COS for TE10 yet?
A question to the knowledgeable, the cos for te9 is that the probability for hitting the tagi or tagi plus palezoic?