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Did any of you notice this ?
Comments please...
It is now
168 days since the October invoice,
138 days since November's,
107 days since December's,
76 days since January's.
That's four months payments overdue!
WHEN will these be paid ?
Year to date (31-Aug-22) ave was reported as 45k bopd, and guidance for full year is reiterated at 44k - 47k bopd.
To achieve a full year ave of 47k bopd, the average for the last four months of the year needs to be 51k bopd.
To achieve a full year ave of 46k bopd, it needs to be 48k bopd for the last four months.
I'll leave it to others to estimate the possible cash-flow and profits if production increases to those levels.
More about the (Zahawi) Warren Medical story:
https://www.stratford-herald.com/news/new-family-company-is-legitimate-says-mp-nadhim-zahawi-9147529/
I'm with you on this, Fleeced.
I invested £213,000 (145,000 shares - now 1,450) in GKP which are now worth a little over £3k.
It is unclear exactly what, if any benefit/influence, Zahawi brought ?
He's an opportunist, who I could never trust.
Sorry, just spotted an error:
Last four months of 2021 should have been Sept-Dec (not Aug-Dec).
Apologies.
Very broad brush figures, for discussion:
If KRG continue to pay at around 94 days (as the have for last two), then there will be at least 12 payments, and possibly 13, if Sept-22 is paid on or before 31-Dec-22.
The revenue paid for the last four months (Aug to Dec) of 2021 which arrived too late to be counted in the 2021 year-end accounts, is around $138.5 (including arrears), and net profit at around 55% = $76m for that period.
For Jan-22 to Mar-22 oil prices have been much higher, and I estimate revenue in this period will be around $150m and net profit of $83. This includes arrears payments which will be paid off by end of Feb-22.
For the remaining 5 months, if oil remains above $100/barrel, revenue will be around $180m and net profit of $99m.
This will give a total net profit for 2022 of around $258m, compared with $165m for 2021 - a 56% increase.
Those earnings should add £197m to equity, and if this is reflected in the sp an increase of around 93p per share = 340p. That still only gives a p/e ratio of 3.65 compared with an average p/e ratio for oil exploration and production companies of 25.
Will their be a re-rate of the shares, or a takeover before the year end ?
Dear RagstoRich
Remember what happened when GKP had $500m of bond debt, and the directors allowed the cash at bank fall below the $50m covenat level, at the time when the KRG ceased paying for oil - that resulted in $400m of that debt being swapped for 95% of GKP's equity.
A lack of cash reserves back then lead to many shareholders (including myself) losing their life savings.
Nothing matters to the MNR when it comes to the interests of the shareholders or the company - all they are interested in is the money, and hanging onto what is due to the company as long as they can.
It's time they paid on time.
Hope you agree with that.
GL to LTH
Are these dividends used to send a message to the KRG:
Pay us what you owe us and pay all future invoices on time, or, we will use the cash for dividends, rather than for capex to increase production ?
Payments for 2021 invoices
Jan - 36 days
Feb - 43 days
Mar - 51 days
Apr - 59 days
May - 58 days
Jun - 65 days
Jul - 66 days
Aug - 77 days
Sep - 96 days
Oct - 65 days
Nov - 94 days
Dec - Not yet paid at day 91
All that extra cash in Jan/Feb/Mar this year should be an incentive for KRG to start playing fair, instead of taking the p***.
Completely agree with your views/feelings on GKP and Zahawi.
My losses are also over £200k, and these were my life savings. I had been a cautious stock market investor since 1983, and sold 75,000 Barratt Devs and 5,000 Berkeley Group to go all in on GKP. If I'd left those investments and never touched GKP, I would have around £850k now, instead I've got 1,450 (was 145,000 before the 1 for 100 dilution) GKP shares worth less than £3k.
Can't wait for Zahawi to lose his seat. He's a shyster.
Good question, Swat1.
Will it be pro rata to the current c.42k bopd production ?
According to my maths, that's around a 30% increase.
****eye,
No, I didn't take part in the open offer. By then I had no money left to invest. I'd also lost another £65,000 on positions, so got wiped out completely of 40yrs savings. I was like a rabbit caught in the headlights, after each new low I kept expecting it to recover, and it never did. I had invested in shares since 1983, and started buying GKP in Oct 2012, then chased the price down to around 70p to bring my average down in the hope it would bounce back, by then I was all in. I wonder how many others suffered a similar fate, or was I the biggest fool ?
I need £147/share to break even.
I invested £213,000, and after the 1 for 100 dilution was left with 1,450 shares.
Sorry I haven't been keeping up...
What is the position with (hope this is the correct term) 'Birs' ?
Sorry to hear that BjornTobyWylde. You got rinsed twice, with GKP and SXX. There should have been lawsuits in both cases for the PI's.
Ha, yes Everhopeful, CHINA !!!
Sorry to hear that, Waffen. Hope you at least had other assets/investments.
I went all in. To finance the buys I sold 5,000 in BKG at around £24.00 (now £47.71) and 75,000 in BDEV for around £1.30 (now £6.81). If I'd not had a recommendation from a friend to look at GKP, I might have hung on to the housebuilders, which would now be worth £750k. Prior to that I had 30 years of careful investing and trading. I really got caught out with GKP, as the upside looked nailed on. Must be a lot of LTH in a similar boat ?
JP2000 -
Started buying late 2012, at around £2.20'ish.
Foolishly kept buying to average down, fully expecting a recovery, then was like a rabbit caught in the headlights... nightmare stuff. I also lost a further £65,000 on positions in GKP, Ophir and Lonmin. Ended up in debt, aged 62.
My break even is £147/share.
I bought a total of 145,000 shares, costing £213,000, and now have 1,450 worth £1,800 - a loss of £211,000.
Anyone else up **** creek like I am ?
The company uses equity to buy the shares, and the share price (market capitalisation) should reflect the loss of (5 x £4) £20 of equity. In theory £20 has been wiped out.
If the shares are undervalued, share buy-backs are good for shareholders.