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The Bell Potter report is on the Calidus Website and well worth a read. In short, the first tranche of Keras Performance Shares are not yet issued as the relevant hurdle has not yet been cleared. I think just about everybody, including Bell Potter, think this is a given. Once they are issued, it is a mathematical fact that the other shareholders [including Kersa!] will see "dilution". Before we all rush for the razor blades, if this is so bad, why would Bell Potter offer up Calidus as a Speculative Buy [ie potential return >30% in the near-term?]. Well, it's all in the report and at the risk of over-simplification calculates that even though more shares will be in issue, the drivers to enterprise value [gold!] will more than compensate for "dilution". They expect the Share Price to go up; I think Dave Reeves agrees and therefore we can probably all stop worrying about dilution. We can always worry about how much gold they dig up.
6th September they declared 178 million. I would have thought that the two 25m sells were theirs and they have probably instructed their brokers to sell other bits as best they can over the past month or so. In short, I am hopeful we are south of 100 million now but it is still going to be painful until we wish them a fond farewell. I take some comfort that at these levels they are making b*****-all, a bit like me! In any event, Rita could do with updating us on progress with WED.
Jim, I suspect that DR has all but relinquished Executive responsibility at Keras and this was trailed in the "Initiation of Coverage" Presentation sometime back. Clearly, Calidus is taking the lion's share of his time and given the results to date, I find it hard to criticise that. However, I do agree that if this means that Keras simply drifts along whilst we eagerly wait to monetise Calidus 20-odd months down the road, it must mean that whoever does have Executive authority needs to address this issue quickly as otherwise not a lot is going to happen to the company or the Share Price. If that means appointing new people, that gets my vote.
"characterized by or holding idiosyncratic beliefs or impressions that are contradicted by reality or rational argument, typically as a symptom of mental disorder" Investing in Stock Markets... maybe delusional. Investing in AIM.... possibly delusional Investing in Magnolia.... probably delusional. The thing is, it's my money and I quite like "investing" even if I am delusional. In point of fact, I am so far underwater on this I could be floating down a stream. You pay your money and you take your choice. .
Good to see Rita is making moves post the Snead/NTOG saga, albeit they may cut & run as the SP improves. I also think it's a smart move to keep the bank happy paying back a good chunk of the Reserve Based Lending and an even smarter move to get the cash lined up to make the most of WED opportunities as they arise. Clearly, Rita sees the WED deal as the way to get growth back on track.
Mr Snead & Co got £65k in cash and 2,400,000 NTOG shares at an implied price of 2.5p a share. Today's NTOG Bid is @ 1.45p and if we generously assume they bail at this they might sell out at £34.8k giving them £99.8k for the 204,226,748 MAGP shares [0.049 pence per share] By way of salt in the wounds, about 25% down on today's MAGP Bid. In short, what on earth were they thinking when they kicked this shambles off?
Mr E, Quiet satisfaction in crushing the Snead/NTOG raid but I agree it is all about where do we go from here. I would think RFW is surprised at just how active PI's proved to be in her support and she would do well not to take that for granted.
I like Rita taking the bull by the horns. "Derec Norman? Snead recruited him, I promoted him and yes I am his mother-in-law." It has also been noted that the BoD fielded a good number of votes at the AGM and I would like to think that bodes well for the GM on the 18th.
Mr E, It might be academic but the original 2006 CA 10% threshold was reduced to 5% in 2009 and therefore NTOG/SOS clear the hurdle. As to the WED shares, the RNS states "Application has been made for the Consideration Shares to be admitted to trading on AIM, which is anticipated to occur on or around 7 July 2017 ("Admission"). The Consideration Shares will rank pari passu with existing ordinary shares of the Company." Therefore, if they do get Admitted as planned, they fall under the same proxy rules as the rest of us [vote registered by the 14th for the meeting of the 18th] or they could always accompany RFW to the General Meeting to deliver the coup de grace to NTOG!
Mr E, As far as I can see from the MAGP shareholder analysis there are no really big holders lurking about. Of course, NTOG know that too and therefore their tactic must be to rely on PI apathy and bulldoze the Resolutions through on the back of the SOS holding achieving >50% of the votes cast at the GM on the 18/07/2017. It is good to see that the BoD and most former colleagues are putting up a united front and I do agree that there has been a pretty consistent message from the LTH's here. I can only echo your message.............Either way you still need to vote
NTOG have delivered a sober assessment of MAGP and no mention of the more lurid episodes oft repeated here. In short and taking poetic licence, MAGP are in breach of banking covenants, they are pursuing the wrong strategy and RFW is not only expensive but clueless. We, NTOG, are very good at managing debt , will clobber overheads and really do care about the MAGP shareholders. On considered reflection, I am not convinced not least because I cannot form any rationale of benefit to MAGP shareholders as to why SOS would bail out to NTOG. Therefore, 17.6m shares voting with RFW.
I suspect like most LTH, I am trying to keep an open mind on this. RFW stands accused of nepotism. I note she took control post the SOS resignation 01/04/2017 and promoted Mr Norman, apparently her son-in-law to CFO. I presume this would require approval by the Independent Directors. In the same vein, once aware of the attentions of Messrs Snead and NTOG she whisked up a new Service Contract giving her a much longer Notice Period than she previously enjoyed. Again, I presume, this would require approval by the Remuneration Committee to have any validity. We then learn in somewhat oblique allegations that she may have colluded with her brother to short-change the estate of one of his clients. This is where "airing dirty-laundry" may well get very serious for all involved as obviously Mr Hunt will operate under the rules and ethics of the Oklahoma Bar Association. If Mr Hunt has transgressed he will face sanction; equally, if he has not I am sure he will seek redress from those making such serious allegations. I will say, this smacks of one political party blaming the other and completely ignoring the issue that shareholders really care about. In short, what are you plans for the future of Magnolia Petroleum? NTOG, presumably in league with SOS, have said precious little about that preferring to release a string of accusations that Private Investors will find difficult if not impossible to evidence one way or another. Whilst I am not surprised RFW has decided to defend herself, again I would like to see less about how we got into this mess and more about how we are going to get out of it.
Whilst I will be happy to read any proposal from Messrs Snead and co that may eventually arrive, my initial reaction is that they are pushing an elephant uphill on this one. That leads me to conclude the Snead/NTOG tactic is simply to rely on PI's not voting. I suspect that like me, most shareholders have trading, SIPP and ISA accounts with various providers. From recent experience with Keras, I can say it proved simple to contact the various providers and get the proxy vote registered.
Dibs, it pains me but I agree. Marble, Marble everywhere and hardly any sold. Lovely, shiny factory [nearly, finally]. I confess I have kept a sentimental few but this really felt like it was going places. It may well do but the Directors have much to answer for.
B, I think there are two distinct issues. Firstly, CA2006 defines a 10% holding in a plc as the threshold in order to be able to requisition a General Meeting. Well, so what? Secondly, simply calling a GM is no guarantee of getting support for what you want; in fact, judging by comments on the Board it looks as if NTOG may well have underestimated the level of support RFW enjoys with a good cross-section of holders [for the record, me included.]
Agree CA2006 states the required Holding for a plc is 10%. I would think that RFW is checking that as we have been told beneficial ownership of the Shares does not happen until 30th June, can she tell NTOG to swivel until then? Of course, this may simply flush out Mr Snead in the meantime but it seems to me in any event a General Meeting is going to happen some time soon and then just maybe we will get a better idea of what is going on.
RNS of 3/4/2017 was not exactly a fond farewell..... " announces that Steven Snead resigned from the Board with effect from 1 April 2017. The Board accepted Mr Snead’s resignation and the parties agreed to waive any notice period by mutual consent." At the time, it all looked a bit strange and I suspect today's news points to an almighty falling out between the Board and Mr Snead. I doubt we will ever know the facts. It is hard to argue with the much respected L1ionheart's implied valuation but equally I suspect a good few will tough it out not least because the previous Market Cap was already severely battered even without this latest blow. All of that said, looking down the road, Rita should have some good news with pending wells but let's not pretend AIM has anything to do with fundamentals.
Even the most generous critic of Fox would concede the Directors have been long on promise and relentlessly short on delivery. Over past years I had built a reasonable holding and happily traded making a bit here and there. Despite having some fabulous product the killer for me was simply a lack of any real sales; plenty of hot air but a lack of orders duly converted into grubby cash. In short, holding dramatically reduced but I still watch in the hope that Mr Gilbert and Co finally start to get it right. In the meantime, investor confidence remains battered and the share price goes south.
At the outset, I think Fox has great potential but is being handicapped by third-rate forecast and execution. When they say in March the factory lines will be in place, it really means some will be but some will be a "few months" off. When they say factory operational by "the middle of the year", they really mean that's what we think we can get away with but some time before Christmas is probably nearer the mark. The old adage is "say what you mean and do what you say". Fox Directors might go mad and try a bit of that and then potential buyers might actually sit up and take notice of things delivered, not offered in a never-ending elastic forecast. This is like having a gifted child who cannot be a***d!
Dibs, I have to say it has taken me a while to share your level of irritation with Fox but this latest RNS has pushed me over the edge too. Complete lack of urgency, elastic programme dead-lines, lack of consequence for failure and oh, by the way we are paying 25% interest on a loan! This has all the hallmarks of a potentially really good company being hampered by consistently inept management. Mr Gilbert, sort it out or get people in place who can. rgds