Member Info for div-investor

Picked up another 10k shares for my dividend portfolio. It may well go lower but I’m long term buy and hold. If it gets into the mid to low 90 pence I will pick up another tranche.

Expecting a fall as the results don’t look good, although I don’t think they are as bad as they initially read as £20m of the profit decline is a one off Impairment charge to a contractors poor workmanship. This does show however a lack of control over their building processes to let this happen. Hopefully it’s an aberration. Drop in the dividend isn’t good though.

Added another small amount to my existing holding, I’m pretty sure this will bounce back at some point and the dividend is now pretty good at 4.6%. I do like quarterly payers too for my income.

Bought just under 3000 shares at £3.548. Hope it to hold for the long term as this looks very oversold. It’s highly volatile though so time as always will tell.

Sorry i worded that badly what I meant was you have to hold the stock the day before the ex-dividend day which was yesterday. Unfortunately you can't edit these posts to correct mis-wording.

Yes you missed the dividend if you bought today. It was ex-dividend day yesterday (Wednesday). That's why the price dropped today to reflect the dividend payment.

That's about right. I never do this as I'm typically a long term buy and hold but this share has been so volatile I decided to take a chance and I'd only bought the stock about a week or so ago when it was significantly down. Who knows where it will go next but I will look to hold for the long term from here on in unless its stays crazy volatile.

Will hold for the long term to see what happens.

Never done this before ex div day but i have sold out at £4.15 to lock in a ~13% return which is roughly equivalent to the dividend % i would have received tomorrow. Decided to lock in the gain now and see what happens tomorrow to the share price. If i goes down to around £3.60 i might buy back in, although i know subsequent dividends are going to be reduced.

I think I must be mad but I bought another 550 shares at £18.30. I’ve been buying this on the way down and am currently sitting on a 20% loss, not counting dividends which help improve this a bit. I have to confess this is a share that I’m buying on disbelief at the share price rather than any technical analysis. Let’s see what happens next but I can see it going lower as there doesn’t really seem to be anything that will pull it up on the horizon. My other shares are doing pretty well on the whole so this is more of a punt than anything.

Mostly negative/declining factors but they have increased the dividend by ~1% and seem confident about maintaining it into 2026. Happy overall as I’m holding for the dividends.

Grok 3 analysis

Positive Findings:

1. Record Capital Investment: Invested £9.8B, up 20% from 2024, driving 10.5% regulated asset growth, with £7.7B (81%) aligned with EU Taxonomy for sustainable investment.

2. Strong Underlying Performance: Underlying operating profit rose 12% to £5.4B, driven by New York (43% increase) and UK Electricity Transmission (9% increase).

3. Dividend Growth: Full-year dividend of 46.72p, up 3.2% from rebased 45.26p, aligned with UK CPIH inflation, with 1.6x underlying earnings cover.

4. Strategic Divestments: Completed £1.3B in disposals (ESO, National Gas Transmission), reducing net debt by £2.2B to £41.4B, and agreed sale of National Grid Renewables.

5. Renewable Connections: Connected 2.2 GW of renewables in the UK (including 1.2 GW offshore wind) and 772 MW in the US, supporting energy transition goals.

6. Regulatory Progress: Secured rate cases for KEDNY, KEDLI, MECO, and NIMO, covering 70% of US five-year investment, with allowed RoEs of 9.35–9.5%.

7. Operational Resilience: Achieved 99.84%+ electricity network reliability despite 8 UK storms and 25 US storms, with 95% of 700,000 UK customers restored within 48 hours during Storm Darragh.

Negative Findings: 8. Dividend Yield Concern: Dividend yield (est. ~4.6% at 1,015.5p share price) lags industry peers, potentially less attractive for income investors. 9. Environmental Setback: Scope 1 & 2 emissions rose 8% to 7,422 ktonnes CO2e due to Long Island generation and third-party outages, missing linear reduction targets. 10. RoE Decline: Group Return on Equity fell to 9.0% (from 10.5%), impacted by higher equity from Rights Issue, with UK Electricity Distribution RoE down to 7.9% due to Storm Darragh and RPE mechanism.

Dividend Information

• Full-Year Dividend: 46.72p/share (interim: 15.84p, final: 30.88p), up 3.2% from rebased 45.26p, paid on 17 July 2025.

• Yield: Approx. 4.6% (46.72p ÷ 1,015.5p), sustainable with 1.6x cover and £18B distributable reserves.

• Policy: Aims to grow DPS in line with UK CPIH, supported by 25% scrip uptake assumption.

• Risk: High capital investment and potential debt increases could pressure future payouts if cash flow weakens, though current metrics support stability.

Overall Assessment

National Grid delivered a robust FY2025, with record £9.8B investment driving 10.5% regulated asset growth and supporting a 12% rise in underlying operating profit. Strategic divestments and a £6.8B Rights Issue strengthened the balance sheet, reducing net debt to £41.4B. Dividend growth of 3.2% aligns with policy, though yield trails peers. Challenges include rising emissions and a lower Group RoE due to equity dilution. The five-year £60B investment plan and 6–8% EPS CAGR outlook signal strong growth, but execution risks and regulatory uncertainties remain. Outlook: Positive for long-term investors, cautious on near-term yield and environmental targets.

I appreciate the CEO is resigning but with a 7% dip I think this is over sold. Happy to collect the dividends.

The banks seem to be posting excellent results this earnings season.

Summary taken from grok 3

Top 10 Summary of NatWest Group plc Q1 2025 Performance

1. Strong Profitability (Good)
Attributable profit reached £1,252m, with a return on tangible equity of 18.5% (up from 14.2% in Q1 2024) and earnings per share of 15.5p (vs. 10.5p in Q1 2024), reflecting robust financial health.

2. Income Growth (Good)
Total income excluding notable items was £3,952m, up 2.1% from Q4 2024 (£3,872m) and 15.8% from Q1 2024 (£3,414m), driven by deposit margin expansion and strong trading income.

3. Net Interest Margin Rise (Good)
Net interest margin increased to 2.27%, up 8bps from Q4 2024 (2.19%) and 22bps from Q1 2024 (2.05%), primarily due to improved deposit margins.

4. Dividend Commitment (Good)
Plans to pay ~50% of attributable profit as ordinary dividends from 2025, with potential share buybacks, signaling confidence in sustained shareholder returns.

5. Cost Reduction (Good)
Other operating expenses fell £179m (8.5%) from Q4 2024 and £93m (4.6%) from Q1 2024, with the cost:income ratio improving to 48.6% from 55.3% in Q4 2024.

6. Robust Balance Sheet (Good)
CET1 ratio rose to 13.8% (+20bps from Q4 2024), with a liquidity coverage ratio of 150% (£54.2bn headroom), ensuring strong capital and liquidity positions.

7. Sustainable Funding Milestone (Good)
Met £100bn climate and sustainable funding target (2021-2025), with £7.8bn provided in Q1 2025, supporting environmental goals.

8. Higher Impairment Charge (Bad)
Net impairment charge rose to £189m (19bps of loans), up from £66m in Q4 2024 and £93m in Q1 2024, due to Stage 3 defaults in personal and commercial portfolios.

9. Retail Banking Impairments (Bad)
Retail Banking impairment charge increased to £109m from £16m in Q4 2024 and £63m in Q1 2024, driven by lower debt sales and stable Stage 3 inflows.

10. Private Banking Deposit Drop (Bad)
Private Banking deposits fell £1.2bn (2.8%) due to seasonal tax payments, reducing combined assets and liabilities by 1.4%.

Context

NatWest’s strong Q1 2025 performance positions it to hit the upper end of its 2025 income (£15.2-15.7bn) and RoTE (15-16%) guidance. Digital innovation and sustainable financing bolster its outlook, but rising impairments and Private Banking deposit declines warrant attention. Dividend specifics for Q1 2025 were not detailed.

Results look very positive to my eyes in this beaten down stock that I hold. Below are 10 Key takeaways and summary created by grok 3, do your own research as always

Key Takeaways:

1. Strong Financials: Q1 sales reached £7.5bn (+4% CER), with total operating profit up 50% to £2.2bn and total EPS up 56% to 39.7p, driven by lower CCL charges. Core operating profit grew 5% to £2.5bn, and core EPS rose 5% to 44.9p.

2. Specialty Medicines Surge: Specialty Medicines sales hit £2.9bn (+17%), led by Oncology (£415m, +53%), Respiratory/Immunology (£804m, +28%), and HIV (£1.7bn, +7%), with standout growth from Jemperli and Cabenuva.

3. Vaccines Decline: Vaccines sales fell 6% to £2.1bn, impacted by Arexvy (£78m, -57%) due to limited ACIP guidance and Shingrix (£867m, -7%) from weaker US/International demand, offset by Meningitis (£350m, +20%).

4. Stable General Medicines: General Medicines sales were flat at £2.5bn, with Trelegy (£675m, +15%) showing strong growth, offset by declines in Seretide/Advair and other products due to generics.

5. Margin Improvement: Core operating margin rose to 33.7% (+0.3ppts), driven by a favorable mix and royalty income (£180m, +21%). Cost of sales dropped to 23.0% of sales (core), though SG&A rose 8% for launch support.

6. R&D Investment: Core R&D spending grew 2% to £1.4bn (18.3% of sales), advancing HIV, Oncology, and Vaccines programs like camlipixant and bepirovirsen, offset by reduced depemokimab costs.

7. Pipeline Advances: Secured FDA approvals for Penmenvy (meningitis) and Blujepa (uUTIs), with expected approvals for Nucala (COPD), Blenrep (myeloma), and depemokimab (asthma/nasal polyps) in 2025.

8. Robust Cash Flow: Cash from operations rose 16% to £1.3bn, with free cash flow doubling to £697m, driven by higher profits and lower capex. Net debt increased to £13.9bn due to acquisitions (£800m).

9. Share Buybacks and Dividends: Declared a 16p Q1 dividend, expecting 64p for 2025. Launched a £2bn share buyback (£273m in Q1), running to Q2 2026, targeting up to 1% EPS uplift.

10. 2025 Outlook: Affirmed 3-5% sales growth, 6-8% core operating profit, and 6-8% core EPS growth at CER. Specialty Medicines to rise low double-digits, Vaccines to fall low single-digits, General Medicines stable.

Summary:

GSK PLC reported Q1 2025 sales of £7.5bn (+4% CER), driven by 17% growth in Specialty Medicines (£2.9bn), notably Oncology (+53%) and HIV (+7%). Vaccines fell 6% to £2.1bn, while General Medicines held steady at £2.5bn. Core operating profit rose 5% to £2.5bn with a 33.7% margin. R&D grew 2% to £1.4bn, supporting two FDA approvals. Free cash flow doubled to £697m, despite £13.9bn net debt. A £2bn share buyback and 16p dividend underscore shareholder focus. GSK reaffirmed 2025 guidance of 3-5% sales and 6-8% profit/EPS growth.

Taken from grok3 as a quick summary of 10 key takeaways,- do your own research.

Key Takeaways:

1. Strong Financial Performance: Barclays achieved a 14.0% RoTE (Q1 2024: 12.3%), with profit before tax up 19% to £2.7bn and EPS rising 26% to 13.0p, driven by robust execution across diversified businesses.

2. Income Growth: Group income increased 11% to £7.7bn, fueled by higher structural hedge income, a 21% rise in FICC within Global Markets, and contributions from the Tesco Bank acquisition.

3. Cost Management: Cost: income ratio improved to 57% (Q1 2024: 60%), with £150m in cost efficiency savings in Q1, aligning with the £0.5bn 2025 target. Operating expenses rose 5% to £4.4bn due to Tesco Bank and inflation.

4. Impairment Charges: Credit impairment charges increased to £643m (Q1 2024: £513m), with a loan loss rate of 61bps (Q1 2024: 51bps), driven by a £74m US macroeconomic adjustment and Tesco Bank stage migration.

5. Stable Asset Quality: Delinquencies remained stable, with US cards 30-day arrears at 3.0% (Q1 2024: 3.1%) and UK cards at 0.7% (Q1 2024: 0.9%). Loan impairment coverage ratio was steady at 1.2%.

6. Robust Capital Position: CET1 ratio rose to 13.9% (Dec 2024: 13.6%), within the 13-14% target, supported by a £0.2bn CET1 capital increase and a £6.8bn RWA reduction to £351.3bn.

7. Balance Sheet Strength: Total assets grew to £1,593.5bn (Dec 2024: £1,518.2bn), driven by trading activity and liquidity pool growth. TNAV per share increased to 372p (Dec 2024: 357p).

8. Liquidity and Funding: LCR improved to 175.3% (Dec 2024: 172.4%) with a £336.3bn liquidity pool. NSFR was 136.2%, well above regulatory requirements.

9. Share Buybacks and Dividends: Completed a £1.0bn share buyback, reducing shares by 4% (14,314m vs. 14,983m in Q1 2024). Plans to return £10bn to shareholders (2024-2026) via buybacks and stable dividends, targeting progressive dividend per share growth.

10. Guidance and Targets: 2025: Group NII (excl. IB/Head Office) raised to >£12.5bn, Barclays UK NII to >£7.6bn, RoTE ~11%, cost: income ratio ~61%. 2026: RoTE >12%, income ~£30bn, cost: income ratio in high 50s.

Summary:

Barclays PLC reported a strong Q1 2025 with a 14.0% RoTE and 19% profit growth to £2.7bn, driven by an 11% income rise to £7.7bn from structural hedge, Global Markets, and Tesco Bank. Cost: income ratio improved to 57% with £150m savings. Impairment charges rose to £643m, but asset quality was stable. CET1 ratio hit 13.9%, with robust liquidity (LCR 175.3%, NSFR 136.2%). A £1.0bn share buyback and £10bn return plan (2024-2026) emphasize shareholder value. Barclays raised 2025 NII guidance and reaffirmed 2026 targets for efficiency and returns.

Wonder what impact the latest £1.5 billion bond split will have on the share price. Doesn't sound positive as its just for corporate use and not expansion by the sounds of it.

Wow its a bloodbath in the UK stock market for financials. Just bought more of M&G at 189p as well as more LGEN,ADBN and HSBC. Down about £150k on paper over the last three months. Its been brutal but i still see this as a buying opportunity.

However I remain very bullish and I think the overall trading statement was bullish. Happy to be holding this stock especially with the awesome dividend

If investors fixate on the profit decline or perceive regulatory risks as escalating (e.g., further Scope 3 delays), sentiment could sour. However, the sector’s focus on production, cash flow, and dividends—where Ithaca excels—suggests these concerns are secondary. Historical precedent (e.g., the 8% share surge in February) supports a positive reaction to operational outperformance.

1. Profit Decline:

• Profit after tax fell sharply to $153.2 million from $292.6 million in 2023, driven by a higher tax charge ($181.1 million vs. $9.5 million) due to the EPL rate increase (35% to 38%) and $103 million in post-tax impairments. This 47.6% drop could disappoint investors focused on bottom-line earnings.

2. EBITDAX Reduction:

• Adjusted EBITDAX dropped to $1,405 million from $1,723 million in 2023, reflecting weaker H1 performance (lower prices and production) despite a Q4 rebound ($646 million). This year-over-year decline might raise concerns about profitability trends in a volatile commodity market.

3. Regulatory and Fiscal Headwinds:

• The January 2025 Rosebank judicial ruling requiring new Scope 3 emissions consent introduces uncertainty, potentially delaying first oil beyond 2026/27. The EPL extension to 2030, adding a $318 million tax hit in 2025, further pressures profitability, especially if commodity prices weaken.

4. Debt Increase:

• Adjusted net debt rose to $884.9 million from $571.8 million, reflecting growth investments. While leverage remains low, the 54.7% increase could worry conservative investors, particularly in a rising interest rate environment.

5. Commodity Price Sensitivity:

Lower realized prices (oil: $81/bbl vs. $85/bbl; gas: $64/boe vs. $76/boe) impacted 2024 revenues. Without hedging, future price drops could erode margins, a risk highlighted by the profit decline despite strong production.