Member Info for dictumdedicto

I see there was another 350,000 from yesterday.

Seems there are different instructions around:

Action required before midday on 16th Dec 2022.

Take up your option to buy more shares in Condor Gold plc

You can apply to buy shares at a price of 15p each. You have a guaranteed entitlement to buy 1 share for every 6 shares held at the end of 2 December 2022. You can then apply for extra on top of this, also at 15p, but there’s no guarantee you’ll get all the shares you apply for.

To apply for shares please give an election by noon on Friday 16 December 2022. You’ll need enough money on your capital account from noon on 16 December 2022 until the money is used on 19 December 2022.

For info:

'O' Ordinary Trade (System will delay if over 6 x NMS)
A standard trade made through the Market Makers and dealt at normal settlement date.

NMS = Normal Market Size.

I don't know what Condor's NMS is but the delayed trades are at least 6X larger, hence the late publication. Apart from size they look like normal trades and I can't see them being an overhang from days ago (CNR has been trading at 16.25 for several days now).

Possibly delayed but I doubt it, at least not from today. I would not have thought you could post delayed trades more than a day later to avoid distorting the market price. Then again a lot of MM actions are pretty opaque at times.

I guess we will find out at the open tomorrow whether they are genuine buys or long delayed publication trades. Presumably, if they are very long delayed the price will still be 16.25p tomorrow. 1m buys in thinly traded Condor would, I assume, result in a bit of an uptick.

Looking at the trade prices they look like buys to me. If they were sells I'm pretty sure the SP would have dropped, at least to 15p and probably lower. It looks like support activity to me. As for JM, he doesn't have to convert and for the sake of ensuring the open offer goes through he might well have decided that 16 - 16.5p is pretty close to 15p and that the risk of the initiative failing is not worth the penny of so gain. This is all pure speculation and could easily be 100% wide of the mark. I realise that.

Can't !

Pure speculation of course, but it does make you wonder whether someone who can buy 1m in the blink of the eye has done so to support the price through the open offer phase. JM is not participating in the open offer, perhaps to keep his powder dry for the open market. It also makes you wonder how many shares the market makers still have floating about.

I can see this dropping below 16p if there are sizeable buyers around. I've decided to fill in the participate box now rather than wait until the last minute.

(I'm obviously assuming a single buyer vs. several. I could well be wrong.)

Yes,

1m bought in the last 30 minutes.

Perhaps the penny is starting to drop...

Looks to me like they would simply be picking up the slack on the open offer 1:6.

My take is that IIs will be queuing at the door for any shares on offer at 15p, given that they could potentially triple or quadruple in a matter of weeks/months. I'm kind of surprised that there has not been more open market buying at 16p - 17p. I don't think the penny has dropped to most yet.

PoG's instant 2% jump in price is a reaction to an expectation that the FED will slow or stall iits interest rate rise regime. If we get anywhere near to that the USD will drop and PoG will jump again. In my view it's only FED rates that are holding PoG down.

I think the effect of the lower than expected US inflation rate on the markets will end up being more important than PoG given where we are. The instant reaction looks like 2% - 5% increase in US equity prices expected. In other words the market financing environment suddenly becomes a lot less challenging.

Which of course makes funding acquisitions easier.

Having chewed this over I reckon CNR will simply sell the Nic companies rather than the assets they hold. They are after all the assets.

Forget my DTA rabbit hole. The gains should all crystallise over here.

Too much over-thinking here.

I'm also wondering whether CT increasing to 25% might be influencing the timeline. 6% is not exactly an insignificant increase. I've no idea how the UK/Nic DTA works (is there one?) and whether even Nic has CGT but what I do know is that one way or another some of the consideration will end up subject to UK CT.

As I've mentioned before, there are significant intra-group loans between the UK parent and three Nic subsidiaries so these will need to be settled first one cash changes hands. About £40m will end up on CNR's balance sheet once these are resolved, so taxes should really only apply to the rest. Nonetheless, 6% is 6%. If it doesn't need to be paid on a timing basis.......

BTW a lot of this stuff is in last year's balance sheet notes.

It will certainly get exciting when news of Round 1 is issued. That will probably be a trigger for the equity end to burst into life. I also ask myself whether, if they did get a home run type offer, they would still go through a BAFO second round?

My guess is that whether or not they invite other parties to pick up offer shares will depend on their pre-Christmas view of how long the exercise is likely to take. I doubt the BoD will want any more extra dilution than is necessary.

From being a company with slowly developing events I suspect the landscape will change on a day by day basis now. Soundings are probably being taken on whether offers are likely to come in quickly or slowly. As the asset sale will be price-affecting I would assume that an RNS stating that we have had a serious offer will be released within 48 hours. I'm guessing that offers would need to be in the ball park for this to happen; there wouldn't be a lot of point issuing news on the chancers.

MC has spent an awful lot of time in Nic recently; more so than in the past. I ask myself why, if we are not gung ho for early production, would MC spend weeks in Nic if there are not people to see and deals to be done.

There is a risk that this could drag on for months into next year, but there is also the possibility that one of the parties who have had geologists on site in past months will come up with an offer.

It could go any way at the moment.

I don't think they've put their money in the YouTube slot.

https://www.resource-capital.ch/en/search/?tx_kesearch_pi1%5Bsword%5D=childs

Oops.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yW83034oc7s&ab_channel=SwissResourceCapitalAG

'Video unavailable
This video is no longer available because the YouTube account associated with this video has been terminated.'

Now that should be good for a conspiracy theory.

Absolutely. There are also the international tax aspects to consider and within which entity the assets reside (the 3 Nic companies). I'm working off a gross asset value per share of around 60p but what that nets off to I struggle with, given the aforementioned complications. I reckon the cleanest part of the NIC - UK repatriation will be repayment of the intra-group loans to the holding company. Actual cash may be paid to the UK PLC but the book entry will be to clear the loans. I could see quite a lot of creative bookkeeping taking place to minimise tax liabilities both in Nic and in the UK.

The other question is forward strategy. If a decision is made to retain a chunk to seed another venture, you can obviously knock that off what will be distributed, but then again there may be some SP recognition. Maybe the listed company becomes a shell for another entity to reverse into, a reverse takeover. If the cash is left in the shell the acquisition price per share should reflect the cash on the balance sheet. There are too many imponderables at the moment.

The residual land acquisition has not bothered me either. As a risk I tend to see it as below that of, say our U.S. friends imposing some new business restricting sanctions. Based on the market reaction to U.S. impositions vs. issues with land I would suggest that the market thinks the latter is pretty insignificant as well.

As for valuing a risk, it's anyone's guess. It's like valuing the fact that you have potentially dozens, if not hundreds, of locals who a trained and ready to work as soon as the go button is pressed. You know it has considerable value but how do you actually monetise it? Likewise, the local goodwill that has been generated. It's cost seven figures over a period of years to get the locals on board and there we have seen evidence of support for the mine in the past. All these factors have a value. Perhaps approach them by adding a premium to the sunk costs associated with these initiatives?

For me the starting point would be average resource values (the $20, $30 & $160 pricing points) and then adjust these upwards or downwards relative to the risks and other less tangible assets being appraised.

GBP:USD is abour 1.23 at the moment. The $100m to $200m is therefore around £81.3m to £162.6m. For full dilution we are going need to get to about £120m. I calculate circa 244.3m fully diluted which would equate to about 49p/share. At the top end, £162.6m, we are around 66.5p. It gets a bit complicated at this point because I'm not 100% clear whether the numbers he states are for all assets or just the resources. Notwithstanding that, the effect of assuming all options, warrants etc. are exercised adds around £14.2m to the asset base as cash. In other words about another 6p or so valuation, excluding the current negotiation facilitating cash raise.

As a result of MC's statements about what they are gunning for in assets I can't now see more than 72/73p underlying per share valuation overall, and we will likely not get that. I'm now working on 55p - 60p rather than circa 65p, but then again we are moving into a negotiation zone and it looks like there could be 6 - 8 interested parties. If we do end up in an auction vs. a 121 negotiation the price could get a lot closer to 80p.

My personal and tax planning calculations are now based on 60p rather than 65p. For anyone buying in this next week or two this could well be a 3 or 4 bagger in a matter of weeks. Punters have not seen this yet but, and I know it may take a trigger like a good RNS, at some point the penny will drop. It will then be a pretty volatile rollercoaster as people buy and sell, positioning themselves for a payday, potentially by spring.