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June 2022
"The Company has also updated its estimate of the NPV10 of the base volumes in the 24.9 million barrel pMean recoverable case, to $305 million, as set out in the linked presentation at page 11."
April 2023
"Updated resource estimates and risks for the reservoirs connected to the NJOM-1 and the NJOM-2 discovery wells, substantially lowering risk attributed to PS9 Sup and PS3 HW reservoirs, and increasing total risked pMean prospective resources to 35.4 million bbls."
$305/24.9*35.4 =
$433.61m NPV10 (On a pro rata basis)
Offshore South Africa
Totals large gas condensate discovery with AVO analysis has now been mapped and confirmed TRPs deepwater fan leads x2 are not only on trend with their discovery but also exhibit AVO analysis
Interesting bit is where Totals exhibits AVO class III (gas) then deeper down dip class IIp (oil/condensate) at deeper depths, highlighting the change in gas to fluids at greater depths
TRP deepwater prospects exhibit AVO analysis observed downdip in Totals discovery below the gas suggesting the sands in tiny old TRPs deepwater prospects to be charged and oil bearing
These two large prospects are estimated to contain
A mean of 3.75 billion bbls
P10 a huge ! massive !
7.5 billion barrels OIP
https://www.towerresources.co.uk/operations/south-africa/
As RNS last year interim results
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TRP/interim-results-to-30-june-2022-8trhn7299ria2u2.html
"In South Africa, we have watched closely the litigation in respect of Shell's proposed seismic survey. Our understanding is that the South African court found what appear to be deficiencies in the process by which Shell and their partners had conducted Environmental Impact Assessments ("EIA") prior to the survey. Our current view is that this should not prevent conducting of the intended survey over the deepwater lead in our Algoa-Gamtoos block, that we and operator NewAge have identified on trend with TotalEnergies' Brulpadda and Luiperd discoveries in the Outeniqua basin. However, it does emphasise how critical the correct EIA process is. We believe that our deepwater area is less environmentally sensitive than the area that was subject to the recent controversy, and shareholders will recall that we have already conducted seismic data acquisition in this block closer to shore. Nevertheless, it is now even clearer than before that the EIA and planning process cannot be rushed, which we believe the Petroleum Authority of South Africa also understands.
Given the scale of the potential prize in the Shallow and Deep sections of the Deepwater Slope and the Deepwater Basin Floor fan in our Algoa-Gamtoos block, comprising some 1.4 billion boe of pMean unrisked recoverable resources, we certainly plan to push ahead with the acquisition and processing of 3D seismic data over these leads, to firm up a drillable prospect, before entering the final exploration period of the Algoa-G
October 23 - green light
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/south-african-minister-gives-green-light-totalenergies-drilling-off-cape-coast-2023-10-02/
feb 24 RNS
"In the meantime, we are also continuing our work on the evaluation and prioritisation of leads and prospects on our Namibian licence in light of the basin modelling work we recently completed, and we have been discussing the next steps on our South African Algoa-Gamtoos license with our joint venture partner and operator, NewAge. We hope that this will be the first of many positive announcements in
Back in 2010 there was much less data - less seismic and fewer wells , So the decision to drill Welwitschia did look like a good choice at the time
The results from the recent basin modelling have confirmed the dolphin graben appears to have generated large volumes of oil which appear to have migrated W, NW and NE, but it appears that relatively small volumes would have migrated SW towards Welwitchia.
So that would explain why, especially in the absence of a charge from the Aptian source rock, the syn-rift source rock from the Graben would probably not have reached Welwitschia, explaining why they well was dry,
Even what may have migrated in that direction from the graben would probably have first encountered structural traps on the flanks of the structure.
Therefore the basin modelling has provided an explanation why we did not encounter oil at Welwitschia, despite high levels of oil generation and migration paths to other structures to the W, NW and NE, and when your new model predicts a negative which was correct, then this is also confirmation for the model moving forward is good indicator
It's clear the structures have a number of DHIs, oil seeps, clear migration pathways ,potential to be mutli billion bbl especially,the alpha and gama structures which are huge in size
We have 80% interest here, high equity stake, if we farm out 50% to a major for 3D and 1well commitment potentially the Alpa or Gamma structure , this will re rate shares over time towards spud due to the size of the prize
A 20% interest in a billion bbl prospect would mean 200mmbbls net to TRP, potential $500-600m in the ground value net to TRP from a current mktcqp of £2.5m and that's just one structure, we have a number of structures and leads, which we await updated resource potential
So you can see the significance from the recent updated basin modelling results
Confirmed the Welwitschia well to be a negative
Confirmed the dolphin graben to have generated large amounts of oil
Numerous structures and leads mapped with clear migration pathways
Buying now at £2.5m tucking away offers a huge opportunity
we await updated volumetrics ....
interest is very high
Https://youtu.be/9l1RyD5Sjqo
https://www.towerresources.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Namibia-offshore-understanding-the-petroleum-system-in-the-Walvis-Basin-AEW-Oct-2023-final.pdf
1mins 48 secs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=bEGhb16GnkE
its worth noting that Alpha structure could potentially be larger than Venus discovery
venus structure is 600sqkm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=kgH_0mEZ7zQ
alpha 850 - 1200sqkm
slide 9
https://www.towerresources.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Namibia-offshore-understanding-the-petroleum-system-in-the-Walvis-Basin-AEW-Oct-2023-final.pdf
"The main oil seeps that have higher repeatability are recognised adjacent to the Dolphin Graben and are located above existing prospects and along the main migration pathways verified by Tower’s recent basin modelling work"
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/duncan-rushworth-44b3415_namibia-walvis-oilseeps-activity-7125770416555483136-aBDw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
Oil seep study
Clement Blaziot posts on LinkedIn
He carried out a satellite oil seep study on Galps block
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/cl%C3%A9ment-blaizot-297192129_namibia-africa-namibia-activity-7046514333035429889-tdIx?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
which has recently confirmed an oil discovery
https://www.offshore-mag.com/regional-reports/africa/article/14303512/galp-finds-more-oil-in-namibias-orange-basin
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/cl%C3%A9ment-blaizot-297192129_namibia-angola-africa-activity-7161736967372685312-WjEy?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
now with him carrying out TRP oil seep study offshore Namibia,
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/cl%C3%A9ment-blaizot-297192129_namibia-africa-energy-activity-7076950945380585472-s_fV?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
with clear results, highlighting the oil seeps clustered right above on top of the structures in our licence area
Understanding the Active Petroleum System in the northern Walvis Basin
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/understanding-active-petroleum-system-northern-walvis-rushworth-qp7ye?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&utm_campaign=share_via
Big big structures
Multi Billion bbls potential prospects
Gas chimneys
DHI's
https://youtu.be/9l1RyD5Sjqo?si=Mx9-Vcn04g2QkFtT
Now oil seeps clearly clustered sat right ontop of the structures
Indicating a working hydrocarbon system
Interest is high ...
Namibia is in play
TRP £2.5m mkt cap
Namibia drilling isn't imminent but getting in early from a £2.5m mktcap the shares will re rate due to the size of the prize
Let me explain...
The recent update ref basin modelling generally went under the radar ,I'll try and explain the significance of the findings
Back in the day, Welwitschia was a great-looking opportunity, oil seeps, AVO, four-way dip closure and chimneys, which is why Repsol was prepared to spend the best
This is probably the most exciting one
Namibia
We were approached by a major in late 2019 just before covid for our blocks in Namibia
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/namibia-update-ped9qgjh2h7gfb5.html
"As previously disclosed, Tower received an unsolicited approach from a Major oil company regarding its license PEL 96 in the second half of 2019. That company has told Tower that it remains interested in working on this project, but has not prioritised it during the first half of 2020, and we expect discussions to remain on the back burner in the second half of the year, or at least until the Covid-19 pandemic situation is clearer. This has not affected our own plans for the license, and we await with great interest the outcome of further work, such as Global's, and also further wells being drilled in Namibia, including Shell's well on license PEL 39 and Total's Venus well, all of which will enhance our own basin modelling and prospect evaluation.
Jeremy Asher, Tower's Chairman and CEO, commented:
"At present we are concentrating on getting our Cameroon farm-out finalised and preparing for Covid-19 conditions to permit us to resume well preparations at Thali, and we hope to update the market with further news about this shortly. But we are also continuing to work on our Namibian license. Even though most of the work is desk-based at this early stage of the Initial Exploration Period, it will be profoundly influenced by the insights we can gain from the physical exploration efforts of other parties, even in other basins in Namibia. We are especially interested in what Global is doing on PEL-94, and note that the amount of 3D data already obtained on the Welwitschia Deep prospect suggests that this might already be close to being drill-ready. If Global is able to drill an early well on PEL 94 targeting the Albian carbonates and Cretaceous turbidites, this would bring extremely valuable insight to Tower on the multiple structures and leads on our PEL 96, and if it is on Welwitschia Deep, then it might also bring an early discovery providing immediate reserves to our Company."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/namibia-update-1logv6rxg3ma4ms.html
This was thought to be a work in progress...
but now interest has taken over and TRP have had to show their hand recently showcasing PEL 96 at AEW
The farmout presentation was very well attended Dr Mello (the former upstream boss at Petrobras and HRT who is still regarded as one of the global experts on Namibia) applauded Duncan, and we also had very positive direct feedback from both Exxon and ENI.
The Namibia sessions were very well attended and there is evidently a lot of interest now in areas beyond the Orange Basin
if you look on the link, top row 2nd left - Namibia PEL 96
https://www.linkedin.com/search/results/content/?heroEntityKey=urn%3Ali%3Afsd_profile%3AACoAAAV-0VAB1lkJ_pTRnGloXxTLQ1qHvwQJjfc&keywords=matt%20tyrrell&mentionsMember=%5B%22ACoAAAV-0VAB1lkJ_pTRnGloXxTLQ1qHvwQJjf
With any stock timing is key...
TRP have suffered due to timings for all 3 assets..
but the following information outlines the investment case with all 3 projects now in play all for just £2.5m mkt cap
Cameroon
Appraisal drill high COS, targeting 16,000 BOPD.
first production from Njonji estimated at just 6 months thereafter
phase 1 @ 8k bopd
8000bopd x 365 days x $90= $262.8million gross per annum
phase 2
production estimated to double to 16k bopd with the deeper sands
16000 x 365 days x $9 = $525.6 million gross per annum
TRP mkt cap just £2.5m
June 2022
"The Company has also updated its estimate of the NPV10 of the base volumes in the 24.9 million barrel pMean recoverable case, to $305 million, as set out in the linked presentation at page 11."
April 2023
"Updated resource estimates and risks for the reservoirs connected to the NJOM-1 and the NJOM-2 discovery wells, substantially lowering risk attributed to PS9 Sup and PS3 HW reservoirs, and increasing total risked pMean prospective resources to 35.4 million bbls."
$305/24.9*35.4 =
$433.61m NPV10 (On a pro rata basis)
technical overview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZJ7Nh1_oj8&t=4s
https://www.towerresources.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Duncan_Rushworth_Tower-Resources_Thali_AOW_2022-v3.pdf
Njomi 3 - 90% COS according to OIL report as below
https://www.towerresources.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Summary-Reserves-Resources-Valuation-Report-Tower-Resources-Cameroon-Assets-Effective-Date-10th-March-2020-Publication-date-12th-March-2020-Final.pdf
additional 111 million bbls of prospective resources identified in the OIL report may be found.
you'll note on the farm out flyer they have now included the Dissoni & Ideneao prospects with pmean recoverable of 111.3mmbbls
making pmean recoverable total of 149mmbbls
this hasn't been released to the market ..
quick maths on the revised recoverable plus the increase in resources noted in the RNS link above
149 + 7 = 156mmbbls recoverable
quick maths for NPV10 on a pro rate basis
$305m/24.9mmbbls*156mmbbls =
$1911mNPV10
Mkt cap £2.5m
http://envoi.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/P257TowerCameroonENVOI-IntroFlyer.pdf
you were also not there is further upside for the deep plays...
"equally large undrilled deep play upside identified on 3D on trend with proven reserves..."
Then there are much deeper prospects which currently have no numbers on potential in the public domain but are turbidite and sandstone exploration plays are analogous to giant fields such as Alba and Zafiro which are on trend within the same basin
https://www.towerresources.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/2023-04-24_CAM_Thali_TechnicalUpdate_Rev7b2.pdf
which TRP are keeping this information to themselves for now ;)
Oil seep study
Clement Blaziot posts on LinkedIn
He carried out a satellite oil seep study on Galps block
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/cl%C3%A9ment-blaizot-297192129_namibia-africa-namibia-activity-7046514333035429889-tdIx?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
which has recently confirmed an oil discovery
https://www.offshore-mag.com/regional-reports/africa/article/14303512/galp-finds-more-oil-in-namibias-orange-basin
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/cl%C3%A9ment-blaizot-297192129_namibia-angola-africa-activity-7161736967372685312-WjEy?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
now with him carrying out TRP oil seep study offshore Namibia,
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/cl%C3%A9ment-blaizot-297192129_namibia-africa-energy-activity-7076950945380585472-s_fV?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
with clear results, highlighting the oil seeps clustered right above on top of the structures in our licence area
Understanding the Active Petroleum System in the northern Walvis Basin
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/understanding-active-petroleum-system-northern-walvis-rushworth-qp7ye?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&utm_campaign=share_via
Big big structures
Multi Billion bbls potential prospects
Gas chimneys
DHI's
https://youtu.be/9l1RyD5Sjqo?si=Mx9-Vcn04g2QkFtT
Now oil seeps clearly clustered sat right ontop of the structures
Indicating a working hydrocarbon system
Interest is high ...
Namibia is in play
£2.5m mktcap
Do not under estimate this statement, at the bottom of the licence renewal RNS
"In the meantime, we are also continuing our work on the evaluation and prioritisation of leads and prospects on our Namibian licence in light of the basin modelling work we recently completed, and we have been discussing the next steps on our South African Algoa-Gamtoos license with our joint venture partner and operator, NewAge. We hope that this will be the first of many positive announcements in 2024."
Just checked the timelines from the July 23 presentation
Page 12
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.corcelplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/20230706_CRCL_PPT_FIN.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwicrp6YgaSEAxWw9AIHHdkfB3wQFnoECA4QAQ&usg=AOvVaw30VDHoC44LkXTtZpMcaeOd
Q1 24 looks to be real busy with news flow obviously waiting on testing results but also...
Maiden Brazilian acquisition
Consolidation Angolan assets
Then Q2 first oil from EPS
Just looking back through the videos online , does look like they have EPS in place
This video shows it 3 different times , can see the pipes, storage tanks etc
https://youtu.be/if8Fm0TWgT4?si=rQDvKRXmU0hpgEkA