Member Info for Demos

.... quite a bit of selling activity ....

I'm not sure I'd pay too much attention to the description as 'sales'. I know that my son made a couple of purchases yesterday (not the large ones you referred to, mind you) and they were both shown as sales by LSE. Stick with Strictly's 'half full' narrative.

Another solid and professional RNS from BWY yesterday. Looks to me like they’re on track to deliver EPS for the full year about 10% ahead of current brokers’ estimates … so I’m expecting the brokers to be upping their projections soon and the share price should push up. I’m not seeing any serious clouds on the horizon. All the talk about dramatic house price falls due to Covid seems to have gone quiet. Looks like ‘onwards and upwards’ to me.

Not sure about no progress in earnings next year. Certainly no progress in earnings this year, but they say we can expect 'a similar level of profitability' next year. I always undertsood that profits are a number and profitability is a ratio ... ie ratio of profits to sales. So with sales growth there will be profits and earnings growth .... all with the same level of profitability.

Maybe I'm clutching at straws ...

Looking good value when compared to net assets but they have a challenge in making those assets sweat. From the acounts it's obvious that parts of the business are not delivering as they should - Partnerships and Housebuilding ... put down to 'legacy' sites (whatever that means - mistakes we made in the past?) From the Annual Report this will continue into 2021 also. Future is hard to predict, right now I'm not seeing EPS higher than 5 or 6p in 2021 and there's no guidance from the company, other than we're pushing hard in certain areas in 2021 eg BTR, Partnerships and Management Fee activity. I'm quite heavily invested here, waiting patiently for the discount to assets to narrow - just got to be patient.

Excellent update. What's not to like? As usual - solid as a rock, with a straightforward and informative RNS from the masters of understatement. This is a company that just keeps on delivering year after year in a non showy way.

Thought the results and the tone of the announcement were good yesterday. Some reassuring and solid statements. Overall I have the feeling that management knows what needs to be done and have a plan to get there. Honest enough to admit that they have some catch up work to reach operting margins of peers. Don't expect instant results or fireworks, but slow, steady and consistent is the way to provide solid future performance. Good decision about the dividend at a more realistic payout level (compared to crazy unsustainable yield pre Covid).

It all sounds positive to me - deals happening and gearing reduced whilst borrowing more to increase housebuilding schemes by 50% - 4 to 6. Of course would be better to be able to increase activity without having to borrow, but that's some way off. Happy with the positive vibe about future prospects.

Earnings below market expecations, and a loss at the half way mark - not something to be too excited about. Good news is there's no rights issue or major land writedowns etc Full year earnings maybe around 34p (unadjusted) and for 2021 they say "Assuming stable pricing and current sales rates and productivity levels .... adjusted PBT 310m +". A lot of caveats but good luck to them, at least they are giving some indication and we can make our own guesses about whether pricing will be stable or not and adjust accordingly.

Hadn't realised that only 2/3 of the sale to Bewley is payable by September, so it looks like the £13.5m (that will go towards loan repayment in September) is at most only 2/3 of the proceeds .... so they got at least £20.25m for the sale which implies £215,000 per plot which seems a lot better. Not quite the £250k you wanted but closer !

Oi Oi ... looks like they got upwards of £13.5m from Bewley and are progressing land sales - which has to be good news. I guess the Directors know what they're up to in this business! Taken from the 30 June RNS ... "We are also now at an advanced stage on a number of land sales which are anticipated to exchange or complete in July 2020" and "£13.5m will be repaid in September 2020 from the contracted sale that was announced by the Group on 16 June 2020. The balance of the facilities of £41.5m will either be repaid from planned land sales over the next five months in the order of £37m (some of which are already agreed and are with solicitors) .... ".

Hi Strictly
Interesting to see the results of the ‘acid test’ calcs, and the result is surprising. But I’m not expecting any FTSE 100, 250 House builders to go bust – so not looking at that aspect too much. They have extra financing if needed over the coming months, so things seem OK. Fingers crossed as always these days.
CRST has lots to do, but they know that and are tackling it head on. If they get it right there will be good gains from getting things back on track. Key question is to what extent will the turnaround be successful, and how long will it take? My takeaway from the HY results is that it will be a long slog, but if they can show regular progress it will be rewarded. The new Management Team look good to my inexperienced eyes so I'm hanging in there, but having to do it in a Covid world is a tough call.

Taverham, point taken. But there's 55.7 m in exceptional items thrown into the P&L as well. I could look on the bright side and say they're getting all the bad news out there but I think I said that last year as well. I'm still holding the shares, not selling.

Depressing to read the results. A real cold shower. Volumes down more than expected (more than can be blames on Covid). ASPs down significantly too. Looks like a company in permanent restructuring mode, chasing it's own tail. Going to be a long climb back for this one.

Seems like I'm more optimistic than you for 2020 but more pessimistic for 2021. I had assumed house price reductions of about 10% starting from this summer and lasting a year. But no sign yet of it happening to that extent. Maybe I need to look at that again, perhaps it will happen but later? I'm certainly hoping/expecting Boris will try to turbo charge house building - dressed up in some 'levelling up agenda' terms. For sure there's a huge multiplier effect with all the knock on benefits you mention. Brexit is still out there of course as an unknown.

Terrace, do you have a view on 2020 EPS?

I have median broker estimates for 2020 EPS at 302p with 12 month share price target of 3365p. My back of envelope calculation says 2020 EPS of 330p but don't bet your shirt on my calcs lol.

I'm reading that BWY is now at position 95 per latest stockchallenge.co.uk listing (as of end Jan). That's up from 106 at end of November 2019. Seems like it's not enough to get automatic entry to FTSE100, but steadily getting there. Still a couple of companies in the queue ahead of Bellway. Everything moving in right direction though.

Sorry Strictly ... messed up. Should be demosblog456@gmail.com ! Thanks

I believe there's a quarterly review of the composition with movers in and out based on market value. Last review was 4th September with changes taking effect 3 weeks later. So early December for announcements, not sure about a fixed date though. All depends on if BWY can maiantain momentum in market value compared to those likely to drop out.

Having lost a tidy sum on TEF, like a few others on here I guess, I can't afford to repeat the experience. I'm impressed by the deep analysis of the sector and the common sense approach so I'sd like to join Strictly's blog if poss ..? A temp e.mail address is demosglog456@gmail.com
Hopefully I can contribute to the blog in time.

BTW, good input from Facevalue .. entry into FTSE 100 would be major boost for BWY. Just bought some on the basis of that possibility. Cheers