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@xel it’s a good question and I’d like to give my perspective
I have a lot of empathy for Gary and … for an anonymous BB… a certain amount of cameraderie. We both posted alternative views to the hype of £4-£6 bids and the FOMO being pushed in missing the RNS tomorrow or the day after or the weekend. For this we got a pile on, abuse and accusations of being the same person with multiple monikers.
To be honest I bit and then found myself posting constantly and getting involved in abusive and counter productive flame wars.
When the predicted “news” and bids didn’t appear the vitriol slowed and I managed to step back and now I mostly ignore it (rock if you’ve read this far well done) but I can feel Gary’s …. Not anger…. But sense of justice that some of those most virulent rampers get burnt and at 40p plus that’s likely.
We both started from the same position… putting forward a balanced view for those interested in finding out more. As the outcome looks more and more like sub 50p or even zip I think it’s easy to …. Ummm revel in told you so.
If the SP was £1 and or a bid of £1.5 appears I’m sure there’d be as many posts aimed at him and me
Hope that helps give some insight and good luck 🤞
Happy to engage Deep.... and nothing that I haven't said before.... Some of my opinion has been formulated by conversations on here that have been informative..... There's a thread that is titled The question is why which covers some of it but the gist is......
1) He was forced by the board to go public with a put up ore shut up ultimatum
2) He hasn't got the support of the BoD C-suite for a MBO (and if he has we will likely see a bid tonight or tomorrow, with a select few going with him to the private co)
3) The PwC involvement would have been planned and part of a year long+ programme .... But Teneo would not have been
Sooooo.... the time in the run up to go public and then the original time frame, plus the extension .... and remember.... this is not to conclude a deal but to state a firm intention.... all adds up IMO to this fading.
I'm no longer impatient as I'm trying to buy and sell on the dips and peaks....s o a 20%+ return on trades in my portfolio are fine... just don't want to get caught with a surprise announcement and lose a chunk.... although it MAY conversely gain 50%+ with a 50p bid.
Annnddd.... all those holding from buying higher😀
Seeing my paper losses disappear is good.... but target of £8 is when I'll be taking profit.... (unless it's a TO.... but then you know who will apppear here 😜
THIS IS THE BEST POST EVER….
If I could follow you I would …. But I’m deffo gonna steal some of your lines mate !
“ More flip flops that Shoezone. More in outs than the Okey Cokey…”
🤣🤣🤣🤣
“More Boohoo then…. Yes…. Boohoo”
Mate …. Why oh why did you not post earlier…. You made me larf out loud !!!
🙏😍🤣
Hi JSR
Thanks for the reply. Good points.
I cannot comment on point 1 because I don’t have the experience or expertise and just stumbled upon SD as a massive drop so wasn’t following it before. But what you say makes sense and I have no reason to rebut it.
The second point IMO reinforces the discourse in the boardroom. An MBO fully supported by the C-suite and board, with the knowledge of impeding IP sale income would make a £1 SP a bargain with other future IP regions supporting financing. But a hostile board (read CFO) would scupper that…. Again …. Alllll speculation. But as you say in your next point, the discussion had been had some time previously so certainly initial investigations would have taken place before the RNS.
For point 3, IMO PwC and the big 4 are routinely brought in for change management, re-orgs, cost savings etc… and “generally” are brought in by the CFO and work closely with the finance dept. Who would leak any connection with CVA or administration. Also, is it only since the bid situation clock started that SD decided to appoint Teneo or was this part of PwC output and recommendations AND who leaked both times.
I can’t see another extension IMO and hope a RNS brings a bounce, if not a recommended offer
Cheers and good luck 🤞
Hi Deep
Happy to engage 👍
I’ve said this stuff before and got a pile on. It is ALL SPECULATION… but isn’t it all 🤣
My hypothesis starts with Why and how we got here. IMO JD lost the board over the last 5 years and following the Jan results and the collapse to 15p SP. Hence was at odds with the board on the way forward. I think the board issued the put up or shut up ultimatum. This is mainly evidenced by the turnover of CFOs.
IMO the bid/no bid odds started at 50/50…. but the board forced the clock to start ticking and as time passed the odds started to skew to no bid. I think the market reflected this by the jump to 50p, pricing in just below an anticipated bid. Following the extension the odds move further to no bid IMO. perhaps 70/30…. Also, I believe the market has prices a bid in and it’s around 30p…. That’s why the price has stabilised around 25p IMO.
So, to get to your scenarios…
1) No bid means the incumbent CEO doesn’t value the business high enough to bid. He has been forced to show his hand publicly by the board with the put up or shut up move and IMO will leave or be voted out. SP will collapse to sub 15p, cost of borrowing will escalate and creditors will be nervous and may move to get in first. IMO a no bid announcement will be accompanied by CVA (Teneo are in place already … and they are being used by ted baker https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2024/03/ted-baker-administrators/)
If it’s a CVA then investors will have a long hold to return to 50p+
2) Recommended bid 40p+ and JD takes it private and we all count our profits.
All in the spirit of debate mate 👍
Bucketman, my friend... you've put the 😸 amongst the 🐦
That's exactly what flamed the .... errrr flame wars
IMO... worst case is is prepack admin where shares are worthless.... step up is CVA where Board and business continue to trade and shares remain but looking at 5 years+ recovery..... step up is shares bounce to 40p on news of offer at which point I would sell ... best case is RNS issued with recommended offer at ( again IMO 40p) 40/50/100p
I think all are possible... and odds are pretty evenly split IMO
@fordy... I don't "know" but I don't think it's wild.
If you know then I'm happy to learn that. I "think" that Ageas has a similar deadline to make their offer so I don't "know" if DL are in a bid situation but I'm guessing the TO code would apply as a UK company.
If you are saying SD MUST issue an RNS for any proposals they receive then fair enough. Your knowledge is greater then mine.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DLG/further-statement-re-possible-offer-by-ageas-tc7c2q6qbpo9cm1.html
If DL are in a bid situation too (which I AM NOT SAYING they are)... is this possible?
@66 & 77….
Good logic and well presented…
I agree with most but let me put a scenario …
If you look at other offers at the moment and DLG in particular …. They had multiple approaches before they declared a RNS… and even then it wasn’t a “official” offer so I don’t “think” they have to declare indicative offers… now let’s say it was MA or authentic brands making the proposals… the board can privately tell them to do one… or publicly tell them via RNS. However, when the proposal is from the CEO and it’s not supported by the board or C-suite it will have to be done behind closed doors and the end result will be recommended offer …. Or no offer and JD walks.
The board also have to do what’s best for the employees as well as shareholders