Member Info for Dcat80

Today Anglo American sighing iron ore offtakes (not in Brazil).

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/GRANGESBERG-EXPLORATION-H-64307462/news/GRANGEX-signs-a-USD-10-million-Royalty-Agreement-and-a-binding-term-sheet-for-an-Offtake-Agreement-w-43167041/

Bittersweet reading the bres broker note.

3 years of working on pitombieras and still not a single broker note issued. Simply not good enough… Wonder if Brian wants to comment on why that’s the case…

Don’t expect Luis to be able to repeat that with a new project for Jangada!

Still I’m very interested to see what project is acquired, how deal is structured and intentions for it.

At the very least it should produce some much needed newsflow…

It should not be construed as either pitombieras or her project I.e. it’s not one or another…

Until we know what we’re getting no point speculating or getting hopes up. It’s something I’m keen to see though…

Blackfisk - little history on Bravo Mining

Acquired the Luanga project for $1.3m as noted in the IPO prospectus.

Listed in Canada raising c$40.25m (circa $30m USD) valuing company at c$176.50m (circa $132m USD).

Current MC c$338m ($253m USD)

Tombador agreed offtake agreement with a local Brazil steel mill. Shows deals are now being done. Confidence seems much higher this year than in Q4 last year with China reopening and predictions of global growth. Hopefully getting nearer an environment Jangada can “push the button”…

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02635954-6A1137898?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

Vanadium been doing well recently which might have caused some to look. I believe it could continue going on
A run to… Suspect though it’s more seems SP seems to have bottomed out.

Opex for the iron/vanadium aspect is sub $50 a tonne if selling locally. It’s nice and clear in the technical report and that aspect is to feasibility level. If plant was built we’d be producing at good profit.

Price environment is reference not to the iron price on any given day… Price dropped to $80 at one point last year, when the discussions with offtakers would have been ongoing. Do you not think they’d have been concerns then it could have dropped lower? Might also remember IMF last year were projecting recession in most countries. Not great for confidence…

Iron ore price has recovered and back at levels used in economic model. These were again restated in the update RNS. IMF now forecasting better prospects across the globe with growth (apart from UK!).

It’s a matter of confidence.

None of you seem to be asking the question of why it matters to an offtaker… If they were just going to buy iron from us at spot price upon delivery why is the price environment a big deal for them?

It’s only really relevant to them if there’s a financial risk to them.. Only way there is a financial risk to them is if we owe them money/product and we’re unable to pay it back.

It seems clear to me they’re waiting for an environment that offtakers have the confidence to finance our mine build. They pay up front & often years in advance for product to be delivered at later dates. They need the confidence if they advance us say $12m-$15m for the mine build that Jangada will be able to pay that back by producing at time of reasonable iron ore prices. If we were to go bankrupt trying to produce at low iron prices then they lose that advance!

BOD are clearly looking for non-dilutive funding.

Agreed the Tio2 aspect has always felt kept back. The product seems well suited to fodere technology being both higher grade and with less contaminates than the feed material S Africa planning on.

Not sure if delays at fodere have stopped any work for Jangada in this respect. I’m sure if we got advises it’s being investigated/tested etc that it’s be seen very positively by shareholders, although any delays no doubt punished (so maybe just announce when sorted?).

Another piece of the puzzle I feel that will eventually fit into place, but really unable to work out when!

Mesb - frustration of fodere being private with not so readily available information. I’m sure they’re not well known and hopefully when that changes it solicits interest. Only have the few LinkedIn posts, don’t even add these to the website!

As far as I’m aware they’ve 2 projects.

The tiny pilot plant near kitwe in Zambia of 7 tonnes per day. Announced in June last year. I suspect, but am not 100% sure this is the original pilot plant they used to test technology.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/fodere-group_fodere-titanium-limited-announces-construction-activity-6955639911295156224-ldZ_?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

The larger plant in Witbank S Africa which fodere reported had environmental impact assessment approval 7mths ago for operation of upto 80k tonnes PA

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/fodere-group_technology-investing-environment-activity-6953261754680270848-8WQq?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

Also wonder if any progress has been made in N America and what work Stephen Sutcliffe been upto since he joined them 4mths ago

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/fodere-group_its-a-pleasure-to-announce-welcome-mr-stephen-activity-6974207476606902272-XUkl?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

One other part as well… The fodere 7tonne per day tiny pilot plant being built near kitwe in Zambia is supposed to be online in Q1 this year.

I’d far rather see economics testing some of our Tio2 product via that. We’ve been a strategic investor with them for a while, me nice of they could test a small sample of pitombieras ore for us.

In summary…

Jangada MC is now £10m. With cash/investments in region of £3m-£4m.

- offtaker talks are progressing.
- there is significant interest in pitombieras
- we’ve at least 1 more project coming soon
- further value should be added on the fodere and Bres front.

We need new eyes/investors that’ll look at above with little patience. I’ve no doubt they’ll be well rewarded if they buy in

Fodere finally making progress. Think most of us know there’s significant potential with them and our ownership value could exceed Jangada current MC. We’ve waited I think almost 3 years for them to finally get going, don’t think they’re understood or even known about outside Jangada holders (significantly anyway).

Expect new deals. This is good, if nothing else it’ll create more newsflow and hopefully solicit more interest. We’re severely lacking new investors with lack of PR/newsflow, be nice for that to change! Luis floated Bravo last year after getting his hands on new project, sure he’s eyes on others although not quite so large!

Another point overlooked is the comment that Pitombieras had solicited significant interest.

Who from? The local offtakers? If so would suggest a deal should occur. If not offtakers than who else and what’s their intentions? Fund mine build, JV & drill larger resource and re-evaluate production method, or perhaps to acquire the project from Jangada and proceed however they want? We don’t know, but it’s first time we’ve received commentary about interest and nomad wouldn’t let them say that unless something behind it.

We’ve had a long time waiting for news with I think all of us being frustrated to varying degrees on the lack of update. As soon as todays RNS was released focus by more than a fair few was on delay. Seems some have been almost blinded by that and not read the positives.

Focus is clearly on a local offtaker. This is good.. The cost of producing 1 tonne of iron ore/vanadium concentrate is sub $30 per tonne. This is set out clearly in the Technical Report, was done to feasibility standard not by Jangada, but by GE21 mining consultants. Anglo use them, Vale use them a whole suite of other mining companies do to.

Logistics are within table 1.8 in Technical report. $10 internal trucking costs to port pecem, $14 port services, $20 shipping to china.

You can all play about with own variations to those costs and the iron & vanadium prices to work out margins at different prices. In short though at $80 iron margin is circa 100% if local offtaker, marginal if exporting to China at $80 iron. Should get vanadium credits on top of either, at lowest vanadium price in recent years that’d be circa $20 per tonne.

Local offtaker would be hugely beneficial. On economics in technical report it’d add significantly to profit, on lower commodity prices enable mine to produce and be profitable. A bid derisk.

I’d be more concerned if they’d said had given up on local offtaker, gone the easy route of agreeing terms with a commodity trader such as glencore where they’d take a commission and they’d be the additional export costs.

BF- have to go into the office on Wednesdays & only just home. Rather manic at the moment trying to close off work items before going on holiday this Saturday. Doubt I’ll be upgrading hotel room after todays SP reaction, but looking forward to a break even more now! Let me have re-read of RNS and pull together previous comments/calculations

If they’re going to stick to investment news then at least mix it up and hear on fodere. Their Zambia pilot plant is supposed to be in production this quarter and ideally news on S Africa to..

Well there’s not exactly a whole load of recent RNS to work through! We’re at mine build decision stage which basically means obtaining and evaluating financing options. It was advised at the half year statement at end of June that would 3mths-9mths I.e. be sometime in either Q4 2022 or Q1 2023.

Most important and potentially exciting stage of Pitombieras project to date. They’ll be NDAs in place during negotiations and BOD are unlikely to show hand whilst negotiations continue.

Should involve discussions with offtakers as every project needs someone to buy the produced product. That ideally would be a local offtaker as circa 75% of the logistics costs relate to port handling fees and shipping cost. Logistics is $10.8m of the $17.9m opex (year 1) as shown on page 33 of company presentation, clearly big incentive to try and get local offtaker if possible! Then of course negotiations on whether that offtaker would advance cash for mine build in return for discounted product when producing.

Other financiers/partners to either cover 100% of the capex of the remaining after offtaker advance. Might be preferable for 100% from such partners, or as little as possible - depends on their terms vs offtakers terms.

Then there’s chat with government over state support. Again on page 33 it’s possible to see current economics equals tax circa 33%. Tax incentive programmes for first 10years of mine are available for NE Brazil projects so hopefully BOD is negotiating with them to.

Or alternatively maybe they’ve had expressions of interest to buy the project, at which point those negotiations also going on and once all options in decision made.

Whatever the outcome I’d hope for update this quarter, anytime now really! Valuing/realising value of much more than the £10m pitombieras valued at current MC

Yep, we all know. Just have a secret pact not to tell you..

Glencore offtake with CSN including $500m advance. It’s almost like they also have confidence in Brazil….

https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/brazils-csn-mineracao-concludes-new-financing-deal-with-glencore