Member Info for daveycaferacer

bargain in my view miti, especially with all the news due

I am looking forward to my HK trip in a weeks time, happy to be staying in the Harbour Grand again, a great Hotel and part of the CK Hutchison family.......

"Don’t worry about the State Pension! These 2 pharma stocks could make you VERY wealthy"

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2018/08/22/dont-worry-about-the-state-pension-these-2-pharma-stocks-could-make-you-very-wealthy/

Let's hope so!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-08-22/hutchison-china-meditech-ceo-emphasizes-seizing-opportunities-video

Some great commentary from our Chief Executive on Chi-Med and Chinese Biotech

https://www.investegate.co.uk/astrazeneca-plc--azn-/rns/az-s-tagrisso-approved-in-japan-for-1st-line-nsclc/201808210700093942Y/

Approved in 1st line setting NSCLC EGFR+ patients

Tagrisso being approved around the world must be a positive for Savolitinib given the combination opportunties

I continue to buy despite a falling share price

Slightly off topic but here's an event for anyone who wishes to understand the science behind immunotherapy

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/immunotherapy-patient-summit-live-stream-tickets-44889823671

" We believe HCM can start to initiate its global commercial strategy based initially
on fruquintinib, but with a view to leveraging the late-stage oncology portfolio given multiple
potential drug approvals in 2020/21. We therefore expect HCM to become a major China and
international oncology company."

A new Edison note has been issued today with a further valuation uplift

"We value HCM at $6.4bn or £73.3/share."

https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/hutchison-china-meditech768036/preview/

Good points and i do top up regularly as I have been doing for a long time. Plenty of news to come and ppipeline progression will add to valuation.

"Did you really expect LC to say anything other than this?"

Based on his previous track record of jam tomorrow, no I did not.

"We are very pleased with the progress over the past weeks"

You may be Louis, others seem to have a different view.....

New Loncar ETF on NASDAQ today (CHNA)

https://loncarfunds.com/loncar_china_biopharma_ETF_launches/

https://loncarfunds.com/chna-holdings/

3.7% of the fund is invested in HCM. Brad is clearly bouyed by his recent visit to Hong Kong!

Another "memorandum of understanding" which means nothing......at least the projects are "shovel ready" but where's the detail on the investment case and the payback. To my mind this is just drivel to try to keep up some form of momentum when the Company knows that Investors want them to start delivering. starting with the PPA.

and another

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-02/to-get-the-latest-drugs-head-to-china

Good article from Aug 3rd on the rise of the Chinese Drug market with a mention of Chi-Med

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/get-latest-drugs-head-china

thankyou Warwis interesting points! My model is just an interesting personal exercise which is of course open to many many factors which could make the Company much higher or much lower than $25bn! I like the Company and continue to buy.

2025:-

Revs $1329m
EBITDA $332m
P/S 24
EV/EBITDA 70
Blended mcap $26bn

Perfectly feasible in my view IF pipeline delivers as forecast on Savolitinib, Fruquintinib and Sulfatinib - does not assume peak sales....others may disagree and I'd be interested in anyone's opinion, contrary or otherwise

hi deepthroat, that figure is based on a range of metrics, P/S, P/E, etc etc and assumes some (not all) drugs make the projected launch dates, and ramp towards (but do not get there by 2025) peak sales.

This is worth a read, and Mr Hilton has been remarkably close with his share price predictions in the last 10 yrs

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/anthony-hilton-the-remarkable-tale-of-chimed-s-growth-a3661656.html

The latest Edison paper is also worth studying

I'll post more tomorrow regarding my calculations for a $25bn mcap valuation. Many may disagree with the projections, and they are based on lots of assumptions, but the metrics used, such as P/E, P/S etc are based on blended numbers (Asia, NA, Europe, Biotech, Pharma etc) to try to come to a fair conclusion.

We may not get to $25bn by the end of 2025 but I expect to be closer to that that the current $4.5bn IF the 3 leading drug candidates have some launches in the next 2-3 yrs. In other words, by 2025 revs and earnings will be many multiples of today's numbers and that should feed into the valuation.

Investors Chronicle have this as a BUY again this week.

A somewhat disappointing share price performance since last Friday, I was expecting a fairly significant uplift, not due to the financials but because of the important pipeline updates and additional clarity around the Fruquintinib NDA and its path through approval.

I'm off to HK for the first 2 weeks in Sept so look forward to soaking up some of the Hang Seng Biotech listing frenzy while I'm there. Unfortunately I won't be staying at my last haunt, the Hilton as it was demolished to make way for the new Cheung Kong Center!

Apologies for the off topic comments but excited to be back in HK shortly.......

I continue to buy whilst waiting for this incredible pipeline to progress and deliver significant value to Shareholders

I keep adding, will get back to my 5 figure holding soon

drop suits me fine, I continue to buy ........ this price will be a memory in a few years time

We've seen this kind of thing sometimes before, where a lull or dip can last many months followed by a significant uplift.

I can't see this price remaining as the material pipeline news starts to come through and as the Co. stated on Friday, some will have an "impact" but some will have "high impact"........