Member Info for Daventry

... Probably April 2028.

The main concern I have is not that Villeta will be completed (I think FID is now almost certain) but how Atome will be able to continue as a going concern through the build period and where the money will come from to progress future projects.

We currently have zero cash and are living off a $5 million loan from the company chairman. Due to be repaid in Q3 2025. If we reach FID the $5 million from HY24 will cover this debt but will still leave us with no cash in the bank.

One of the questions asked in the q&a yesterday was about a further raise/dilution. Mussat sounded like a polititian trying to skirt the question a little but did seem to imply that a further raise could be needed.

The company seems to be using a 10x multiple to value the project $70 x 10 = $700 - $400 debt = $300 million.

Atomes 20% would then come to the $60 million value quoted by the company, or roughly £1 per share.

I don't think there's a lot of value in valleta for atome other than as a stepping stone.

If we can bring villeta into construction we do then have the partners to go on and build the larger facility much more quickly with a lot more credibility.

The two plants combined could give the company a NAV equivalent to around £3.5 per share over the next 5 years. But we have to somehow find the working capital to get there.

Just a couple of points to expand on the analysis from Lord.

Yes we have had many many false dawns, FID was initially slated for the start of 2023 and has been pushed back again and again. That said a lot more seems to have been done to bring FID around. In hindsight with the pipeline of work that has been completed in the last 18 months it's hard to understand why the management thought the project was anywhere near FID on all of those prevous occasions.

The actual build time is 34 months from FID so probably A

The other thing that makes me very apprehensive is the offtake agreement. The heads of terms were agreed with Yara against the backdrop of high fertiliser prices, inflated by the war in Ukraine. A war that could be about to end, if this were to open up a torrent of cheap gas back into the west prices could collapse.

Looking at the trades ao far today, far from a buying frenzy it looks like most are people getting out on some news whilst they can.

Don't get me wrong I think the project is worth £2 a share IF it goes ahead. But its impossible for anybody who has been invested in atome for any significant period of time to see this as anything other than a massive disappointment.

What we have is a fraction of what we were promised would be anounced years ago and another delay to the project timeline confirmed.

It also states 40% of the required funding will come from equity investors. That equates to $250 million. So the company still needs to raise a further $135 million.

Still no news on other projects.

It's like a bad joke.

All non binding, no definitive agreement to be signed until the end of H2. $5 million advanced payment upon signing. Enough to cover levines money but still leaving the company with zero cash.

We were told the delays all through last year were to secure a fixed price contract so that costs wouldn't rise. At the time costs were $460 million. Were now told they are $625 million.

The anouncmenet also states "definitive EPC and offtake expected in Q2 2025" we were told that offtake was agreed last year and the EPC contract was I'm place.

What an absolute nightmare

A loan with a large arrangement fee that the company has no way of paying back other than to tap the market, so the next raise is going directly into his pocket.

Time has told. Fid was supposed to be 18 months ago, it's been delayed over and over with no explanation from the company. Every bit of info that comes out of the company are the same non comments.

If you expect any announcement to come by Friday or in the next couple of months your delusional. Look at the red flags they are everywhere.

That same group of 7 directors were paid £2 million in salaries by atome in the same period £600k each for mussat and levine.

It's a fairly common scam on the AIM, control the company, pay yourself and a small number if managers vastly inflated salaries from a loss making company. bleed the company dry then reinvest an ever smaller amount back into equity to keep the gravy train going for as long as possible.

The company is a fraud, we were never going to get another announcement this month, just like we didnt get the promosed updates last month or the month before, move on

FID in Q4 2023,

FID in Q1 2024

FID in H1 2024

FID by the end of 2024

Comprehensive update in January 2025

and now update before the end of the month.

I wouldn't hold your breath, according to the management we've been weeks from FID for 18 months. atomes looking like just another lifestyle company.

When it gets to Friday and we still haven't got financing in place I think any trust left in Mussat and Co will be smashed to pieces and the stock with it.

Although it sounds broadly positive it's effectively the exact same statement the company have made in evey communication for the last 18 months. My main concern isn't that the project will go ahead it's when. They say they are abridged to anounce any adverse developments however they haven't made any announcements on the delayed timlines in the past. Come June the conpany will be out of cash, then what ?

They say that the management are aligned with shareholders but that is not the case. the delays actively benefit the management. If the management are confident thr project will go ahead they can drag their feet a few months here and there until the company runs out of money and then issue a capital raise in which they get to participate in first. recycling the salaries they've sucked out of the company into more equity. Giving them a hefty profit at FID at the expense of ordinary shareholders.

It's tucked away in the end of year results (27th June 2024)

Slight mistake on my part it's $5 million not sterling.

"The Facility with an effective date of 26 June 2024 is unsecured and will be repayable on the earlier of a future fundraise by the Company of at least £4 million, in which Peter Levine will have the right to participate to maintain his current interest in the Company, or when FID is declared on the Villeta Project. The Facility bears an interest rate of SOFR plus 4% on drawn amounts, a commitment fee of 1% on undrawn amounts and an initial facility fee of 2.5%, all of which can be settled in shares."

I'm the 6 monthly results published in August it was stated the company only had $77,000 in cash.

The company spent $7.2m in 2023 and a further $2.4 million in the 6 months to June 2024. The $2 million raised at 75p would have been more than exhausted just by the directors salaries alone since then. Its highly Likeley the loan from Levine is largely drawn by now and company will need to raise more money in the next couple of months.

I don't know anything about this coup nonsense. However I would say don't go too much on the company announcements. I invested back in October 2023. Atome were stating construction would start at the end of that year. In interviews with Mussat at the time he was heavily hinting that FID could be just a few weeks away. The share price has dropped 60% over the last 12 months because the timeliness the company have anounced and what's been achieved are so far from each other. The other thing is ATOME is virtually out of money. The £2 million raised at 75p will have been consumed by now. The company is living off a £5 million loan from Levine. Look at the terms in the original announcement. This has to be paid back as soon as FID is achieved. If it cant be paid in cash it has to be paid in shares. That could mean a dilution of over 30% at the current stock price.

How do you know it was a delayed sale?

looking at the volume it dropped on very little selling action. I think we've just run out of buyers given the lack of news and delays.

Crazy, shows how thinly traded the stock has become. Like you say £17.5k In sales can move the market cap by almost £2 million. Hopefully it means on the flip side the stock can rise quickly. But we need news from the company and fast. Investors have given Mussat/Levine and Co the benefit of the doubt so many times. The market won't tolerate any more delays.

Another meeting has taken place between Atome, Yara and the Inter American Develolment Bank. Several very senior figures from yara in attendance. including the head of yara Americas, head of yara Brazil, yaras head of portfolio and strategic projects and the vice president of strategy and development.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/alonsochaverri_paraguay-bid-hidraejgenoverde-ugcPost-7292548436212502528--riS?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=android_app&utm_campaign=copy_link

Https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2025/01/22/latin-american-low-carbon-ammonia-projects/

It reads as if they could be investing into the plant.

Yara are building green ammonia plants in europe and are one of the biggest producers of fertiliser in the world. If your going to commit to taking the entire production for 10 years, why not just invest into the whole project.

Mussat did an interview with international fertilizer magazine on the 22nd January where he stated "on the equity side, we are basically in the final negotiation rounds. All of the costings have been done, all of the permitting is in place – and we know the project makes sense economically. But until we have final clarity on equity finance, we will not announce the details."

Https://x.com/MIC_PY/status/1885049069195698641

The link to the story on twitter.