Member Info for Dave85

2/2

01/10/2020 07:29 sp 0.615p posted thoughts re land aq around EH
“His agressive approach is continuing and at progressively smaller percentage dillution as shares in issue and 'issued at' sp used increases”
“highly prospective ground, now being consolidated by what was just 6 months ago an obscure aim minnow”
That progressively smaller bit is now hugely powerful in respect of future events.

14/10/2020 10:31 sp 1.14p post to record achievement of ten bagger gains. (held ~65% of original stake past 10x gain)

17/10/20 sp 2.42p post to back analyse achieving (some paper and some actual) 20+ bagger gains. (held ~45% of original stake past 20x gain)

Still holding ~38% of original ~7m stake today being just over 2.65m at av of 0.1181p and cost of £3131.

To date this has been my best ever investment.

Plan to hold 2m for long term (towards Au:Ag being <25:1) and progressively sell off the 650k piecemeal over the next 6 months or so but will only sell (any) at prices of >25% over my highest sell so far (2.53p) so >3.17p and will depend on my thoughts on various factors when/if that time comes as I don’t really give myself fixed targets where I will definitely sell.

I can see a path towards a mcap in the hundreds (plural!) of millions over the next 6 to 24 months, no idea of the sp route towards that outcome, but I’m content/relaxed with my current position based on above.

Onwards and upwards hopefully! The change in mcap, imv, bodes extremely well for strength during future deal making (BBG stated route).

Findings - basically some (couple of long evenings initially, lots more since) research, some knowledge, heeding decent opinions (on macro, nothing ufo specific), lots of luck, lots of early confidence based on correct identification of scarcity of asset base and correct (in hindsight) risk reward judgement.

I AIM to duplicate.

Selling some in 0.3s admittedly seems a mistake (in hindsight), other levels (incl <1p) I can justify to myself ‘quite’ substantially. Under appreciated/researched the potential of the iron ore, if large & DSO & JV with near neighbour occurs then…..happy days.

Been learning bits about charts last 6 months or so, and now even occasionally consider them as part of some timings of transactions (still very much a beginner) but the previous AGQ sp decent due to the lower Ag prices and the loss of San Jose followed by lithium debacle and mgmt shifts does seem highly 'countrary' to the present apparent solidity of mgmt, silver price outlook, deal making and aggressive expansion (together with aligned Co specific and macro shift in sentiment and exposure).

How that may translate in terms of sp trajectory as the future unfolds Ive no idea but I'm interested to watch and find out.

AIMO ATB

1/1

Posting to consolidate previous posts & record thought process (past & current), also in case info is of interest - post date and time with concurrent share price followed by reason for post and useful snippets/links.

27/11/2019 01:07 sp 0.17p outlined thesis…. “I'm here for silver exposure (hard to get)” using mag Silver presentation to highlight geological “potential of the neighbourhood in which ufo is explorating” with link

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Mve3ymvSkt0

“Gold silver ratio to head back towards 100 year av of 1 to 53 from the 1 to 90s”
“kaolin quarry near los campos - 22.745272,-102.544324, potential significance highlighted in ufo rns and mag silver vid.” (rns in question was 01/10/19).

19/02/2020 13:56 sp 0.195p post provoked by sudden sp spike along with a similar uptick (but lasting) in other PM’s stocks I owned.

24/06/2020 07:47sp 0.121p outlined some basis for thoughts re silver price movement “19:30 re potential significance of silver >18.79 monthly close looking good for July” with link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wInlMRATx0k

& how that would affect sp “the number of interested participants increases along with speculative competition (demand for shares).”
& compared ‘then’ with mini Ag bull 2016, from 20.15mins

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5QxwMZDcrY

“Essentially – significant silver exposure is relatively rare worldwide, its particularly hard to come by on AIM, the silver market appears to be approaching a breakout”

09/07/2020 07:52 sp 0.105p posted as silver price move I was watching for occurred “A significant shift in terms of structural momentum (see my last ufo post 24/06/2020) level of 18.79 has this morning been exceeded, a july close above this level is apparently highly significant.”

22/07/2020 08:32 sp 0.18p posted thoughts considering addition diversity of EH and apparent mgmt ambition
“Not only is it's silver leverage huge, its cap is tiny and it has jurisdictional diversity with Elizabeth Hill (very close to Munni Munni pge deposit in Australia) even within its silver stable.”

“On top of this is the vms related gold and copper potential at dovovan 2 and the Australian iron ore and the apparently aggressive expansion ambition of BBG.”

10/08/2020 15:56 sp 0.315p outlined some basis behind my timing of position size. With three links

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9EOPKizJ_Y4

https://youtu.be/qs4j2MfziOQ

https://youtu.be/KWlu2nSLhxQ

30/08/2020 11:36 sp 0.415p noted a chartist’s opinion with link and JP’s Jackson Hole speech re inflation targeting (being bullish for PM’s)

https://youtu.be/rbqw9wd6i0o

09/09/2020 09:38 sp 0.805p posted my first reaction to the JV rns “Makes sense and great news on exclusivity deal they also got - Cozamin polymetallic mine in Zacatecas state, Mexico.”

AIMO

~1m after refreshing myself with the drill results from Paltridge N from 18/02/19.

Continuing to be patient, and think sentiment may improve before Christmas.

GLA

Averaging up slightly.

GLA

With 19 days to go to latest deadline of Boothbay conversion at 35% discount to 5 day VWAP.

I'm intrigued.

Newsflow and anticipation building.

AIMO ATB

Agreed, from Google translation....

"The Socialist Group and the United Nations We have agreed on a series of projects for the Climate Change Project, among which is the prohibition of radioactive element mines."

...seems completely nonsensical to me.

Added more sub 22.5p, based on my long term view (likely shorter term paper loss inducing), sense will (have to?) prevail at some point, hopefully.

ATB

Just topped up to a round million (av sub 0.4p), excited about Bibemi, thought placing price would have been a bit higher but like the warrant exercise price and accelerator provision.

Short term anticipation of underexplored open pit potential - into, seemingly, a currently rewarding market.

AIMO ATB.

Added more here this morning to begin averaging up. Basically I think that (and seemingly agree with others here) the relative valuation of xtr seems disconnected to wider sector. Sub 1p was previously where I liked to buy (whilst averging down) but, whilst I am trying to be patient, I just feel that those levels are increasingly unlikely the longer I wait. Eagerly anticipating FB completion and production but happy to slowly add whilst waiting especially sub 1.5p. Lots of angles here now tho thanks to CB.

Btw i was not able to listen live to webinar and not been able to find link to recording yet, expect one will be made available soon. Thanks for the related posted info so far.

AIMO ATB

Years and years of looking for ten bagger + gains with no success (sold vrs too early), then get 3 in 4 months (and 2 in 2 days).

I've no illusions, simply luck that my ability to buy increased during that time (increased disposable income) rather than reduced and that the wider market is beginning to pay attention to the sector Ive always considered as primarily the best place to achieve said gains.

Lots of effort seems to be starting pay off.

I included this vid in my first ufo post, just for fun i'll add it again.

https://youtu.be/lx-6iDxuThA

AIMO ATB and GLA

My second ever 10 bagger.

As posted on 28/04/20 "happy to await much higher demand for omi shares".

Lucky enough to recently completely derisk here, at multiples.

Happy to hold the vast majority for the, expected, ride up and looking forward to some successful (paid for) exploration.

Hard to argue pounds are not a possibility here (no idea when tho).

Demand is here, but now equally happy to await much higher sp for omi shares.

Holding on tight.

Great to see rewards to lths.

AIMO ATB

Starting to feel extremely lucky for buying in here when I did, and for giving RP another go.

Third time lucky it seems, hopefully.

GLA

2/2

Amc has previously been valued at all of these share prices but non of the capitalisations. Capitalisations have reached (using £170m - 2015) 77.3%, 54.0% and 64.6% respectively. At non of those points in time were the current fundamentals and valuation (due to understandable, realistic, strategic path towards end game (production/sale (from position of strength)) outlook so strong, imo. Personally agree with CT suggestion of 40-50% npv possibly more given project scarcity.

On top of this dynamic is tax consideratiom, 20k can fit into a single annual isa wrapper, 40k or 100k cannot. Therefore 100k return on the '20k stake' is likely 'worth' more after taxes are paid.

I know this is mainly a statement of the obvious and a long winded version of high risk = high reward but the past mcap aspect was a bit of an eye opener for me.

After considering the above, I ask myself......

What is harder/more likely, a repeat of a mcap spike on prior speculation of a successful end game (see giga), or actually achieveing (without subsequent curve balls) all the real world milestones that create a genuinely 'deserved' soaring valuation at or on the immediate lead up to such an end game.

The earlier the takeover the lesser the strength of this arguement, imo.

In some ways and to some extent the latter drives the former (obviously) but the dynamics previously are interesting especially considering 2015 was within a general commodity cyclical low ebb.

Imv the mid orphan section of the lessonde curve where amc reside (a normal low valuation point) has been amplified by several market factors (brexit, covid, previous clns, secular deflation, dollar strength, momentum etc) and a correction, due to recent developments, seems due (an over correction could easily occur).

Therefore is the risk really higher down here? (Prediction of Ni/Cu/iron ore prices and market sentiment is the key).

Not saying Ive pre-planned to sell at any particular point merely an outline of possibilities/likelihoods of certain metrics with some precedent basis.

AIMO ATB

1/2

Interesting posts today thanks for all the thoughts.

My thoughts are....

Considering maket cap (rather than sp), during 2015 June spike to ~44p, AMC had ~430m issued shares (ref: rns 7788B 09/01/15 & rns 3631U 28/07/15) giving it a mcap well over £150m. About 6X today's valuation.

Since then forward looking nickel (and copper) demand sentiment has been increased by li-ion battery improvement (well before battery day) and associated extra projected utilisations by type and number.

Since then a visible source of dilution reducing revenue has arrived along with some very interesting extra people & entities on the team and by association.

The copper concentrate additional free cash flow, when added into the project economic figures, together with some payability from other metal constituents (as the BoD have indicated) will be material.

The current sub £30m mcap has recently become a bit of an anomaly among the amc peer group (broad peers granted) in part due to the powerful word of the tesla front man. Large (million tonne contained) Ni prospects capitalised <100m usd seem to be becoming a dying breed (Zebediela owner excepting) & amur is relatively advanced in comparison to recently re-rating Co's.

Agreed that the main dollar value move will be a bit away (likely 12 - 36m) and depend on current unknowns, bfs in particular (its funding (hopefully now non (or at least much less) dilutive)/findings and reception) along with comensurate market competition & iron ore prices. But, the main percentage sp movement, imo, will (or at least could very easily) occur in the next 6 months or so.

The percentage rise is the one where the gains are to had for the specualtive PI. The risk is higher of course but turning 10k to >200k is why I (try to) learn about these little obscure entities and risk my capital based accordingly. Essentially I see it as limiting risk. Things can still go wrong at 300m mcap with good bfs and funding. More/much more can go wrong now, but to make £100k profit on amc I need to stump up much less at the mo.

20k in at 2p acquiring 1,000,000 shares (my approx holding (982k), but at lower outlay) at ~27m mcap returns 100k at ~216m mcap (allowing for 1.8b issued shares (~31% dillution from here)) once/if sp reaches 12p.

40k in at 5p acquiring 800,000 shares at ~68.5m mcap (very possible before Christmas, imo) would return 100k at 315m mcap (allowing for 1.8b issued shares (~31% dillution from here)) once/if sp reaches 17.5p.

100k in at 7.3p aquiring ~1,370,000 shares at 100m mcap (still ~70m less than on 2015 ML grant sp spike) would return 100k at ~263m mcap (allowing for 1.8b issued shares (~31% dillution from here)) once/if sp reaches 14.6p.

AIMO

2/2

Mankayan is underground, (important re jurisdication) world class and has visible exploration upside. Mmih seem motivated, connected and backed, they have committed to a significant (shortish term) exploration spend, they are stumbling at the starting blocks for sure but these things seem slow/complex at the best of times and 'covid times' are far from the best of times. Them succeeding as far as the listing will be pretty transformational for bzt the value of bzt's carried stakes once/if mankayan ever looks like a real go'er is pretty mouthwatering

This new 'Hope' is very interesting (like the jurisdication, land package (size and relative location) and existing info and resource, untested gold potential (easy and early, cheap potential win)), it also further diversifies the portfolio reducing project risk and exploration seems to be exciting the market currently. That being said, I originally and still buy principally on the back of belief in the value to bzt of Mankayan - (good chance of update next week (Q3 is over). 20% will be an awful lot to keep if (or imo when) mining happens - years away.

Just some of my thoughts (lots from memory so quite easily blurred).

Surginater - Sorry for late reply (I actively try to keep post count down as mainly post for retrospective analysis of decision making - so easier to search back) - no I've scaled in, over 80% aquired at <0.11p fortunately.

Btw, kinda think panicking if an aim micro miner drops by 30-50% (without material bad news (and often even then)) is a bit like panicking if your poos a bit red after you've eaten a load of pickled beetroot. Just need to understand a bit about the nature and mechanics of what's involved, imo, commonly - no need for concern longer term (if a bit researched - much easier to embrace it when it happens).

This is now starting to look like a resource stock bull market (au/ag confirmed) = suprises to the upside = 50%+ pull backs less likely.

Corrections/additions appreciated.

AIMO ATB

1/2

I have followed and held this company for several years so Im aware of the general decline in sentiment along with the mcap and even more so sp since I first looked/bought into it.

CBs arrival and an associated £400k buy-in at ~0.45p (from memory) added to my confidence there was deep value in the company particularly mankayan.

The subsequent mankayan restudy and capex reduction due to shallower options (block caving options and the cheaper 'stepping stone' - sub level caving SLC option) they came up with seemed a pretty wise move pretty quick thru the potential disposal rns (external and overt interest) and later disposal completion rns.

The mpsa has a 25yr term, lasts up to Nov 2021 so plenty of time for the mmih events to get done in the meantime. Or alternates to emerge.

I'm not aware if the transfer from mpsa to ftaa type license to allow greater % foreign ownership has progressed at all but, I understood, that idea was to attract a buyer which appears potentially unnecessary now to me.

From memory BAG was set up and lead for a period by a shareholder who subsequently suffered some ill health and had to step back. Don't think they continued to hold most of their shares in bzt subsequently. The group seemed to have primarily been set up as an 'information from the BoD' extraction vehicle as, understandably, upon seeing the sp cascade, unanswered questioning regarding progress and even more so stratergy, were leading to increasing frustration. I commonly read this BB through the period, several posters (eg Pr, Rr, Qu) from back then have gone quiet this year, others still appear on and off eg, Tr, H5 & Ce.

My impression, generally, was that the group was satisfied by developments and could see a positive way forward by early 2020, expect some have been averaging down.

AIMO

Thanks for all the interesting thoughts posted here recently.

Added some myself this morning.

ATB

...to a nice round 10m

Would have cost me over £100k when I first bought in here, in 2017.

Another three years what will it be worth? - looking forward to finding out.

ATB

Did a bit of the same last night for Star for me it seems to come down to whether the below sentence should be interpreted to mean, the mining permit application includes finalisation of the off take. If it is meant to be interpreted that way, there has been repeated indications that the application has not been made and in April 2020 the bmr rns seems to be the 'starting gun' going off for the finalisation to take place.

26/06/19 rns - "The Company is encouraged to fast track the Project development and to apply with minimum delay for a mining permit to include among other things, undertaking requisite economic and engineering studies for a shallow open-pit mining operation and finalising an off-take agreement for direct shipping ore"

Or is the interpretation to be that the off take is just part of the project development and not a pre requisite to permit application?

Either way it is what it is, other balls in play now, hardly going to sell up now its definitively not pending personally.

AIMO ATB

His agressive approach is continuing and at progressively smaller percentage dillution as shares in issue and 'issued at' sp used increases.

Certainly seems highly prospective ground, now being consolidated by what was just 6 months ago an obscure aim minnow. I'm a EEE holder too so especially like the idea of increased likelihood of munni munni area exposure going forward.

Very high chance of being value accretive.

AIMO ATB

thanks for that

"which will" - confident then

ATB