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Recession is the issue and the impact on earnings, as yet to be determined, but fully priced in! Is it going to be shallow or deep, long or short, nobody really knows. We seem to be in recession but vacancies still high and no real rise in unemployment to date. It is growth that gets us out of recession and this is the issue, you cannot grow the economy without labour to deliver the goods and services. Until the UK has a ready supply of labour it maybe a prolonged and structural recession, hope not, but the Government needs to be honest re the options and solutions available to it. Thought we would have had a tick up based on M&B results but heyho!
Yet price drops 10% absolute nonsense, someone playing games!
mrc Agree as think that was the original plan, think they are bringing forward to clear decks as they going to have more cash than planned. I do take your point re GPA investment requirements but hopefully they have a plan, we need to wait and see on that. I do have more confidence (more than 50/50) that GPA will take place due security of supply concerns, the question is when.
Adw agree but they will be elevated above the norm if softer. Revenues will exceed 21/22 imv.
The annual accounts notes show movement on decommissioning, it's on the PMG website. I do understand the concerns about laying out the cash, but they would have to do it at some point, so just bringing forward. It is also worth noting the revenues for first 4 months for gas, prices are expected to stay elevated for remainder of 22/23.
Agency workers may get £20 per hour but doubt UK government pick up difference! Whilst at face value agency staff are more expensive, they are not as expensive as they look, agency rate includes an element for holiday pay. Agency staff have no sick pay, pension cost or other staff benefits as far as I know.
It is very unlikely that the current government will nationalise public transport, but they are enabling local government to dictate services that meet the needs of the local populations.
The government do provide support for subsidising unprofitable routes and for concessions, i.e. children and the over 60's. The government also support investment in green measures but not sure how much and the rules.
Hopefully the dust has settled and there are no more surprises to come! DVRG now has funding to support working capital, STC development and loan repayment. To date no downgrade on this year's £18m turnover target so DVRG should generate a positive EBITDA this year. Looking forward is now the key for those remaining LTH's who are now sitting on significant losses, myself included! DVRG still have good products and are still increasing revenues hopefully! DVRG are still in existence which is positive and reasonably confident that at least some of my losses will be recouped in coming years. That may take time as there will be a lot of warrants to be got through before SP climbs significantly but many are time limited, so in a year or so DVRG could be out of the woods. I have moved on from the utterly depressed to slightly optimistic but cautious stage! I await with interest further updates from the BoD to see if my cautious optimism is justified or not, but we are where we are!
Recruitment is a major issue for many sectors in the UK at present. If you cannot secure staff to support a sectors growth the sector will suffer. Makes you wonder what the solutions are at times, but for me the problem is easily solved, in a global world you get appropriate staff from where you can, I am sure many want to work here, just like they do in banking!
They had a rights issue in 2018 that raised circa £275m (to buy waga), followed by a placing last year for another £175m. The average SP was circa 105p. I cannot see the institutional shareholders accepting a 70p offer as the underlying value has to be greater but you never know! A lot depends on how profitability is impacted in the next year or so as RTN deal with the headwinds facing it and to date they have managed well. Whilst we maybe in recession for some time to come it may be shallow so spending may not be impacted by as much as is being currently suggested, we will see! Hopefully the trading update provides some reasons to be cheerful!
Very poorly written article and clearly shows no understanding of the company accounts, focus should be on retained business!
FGP is primarily owned by Institutional investors (65% plus), had they deemed the offer acceptable the BoD would have been told to accept. The II's have been invested for years and they may have a high average SP and did want to take a loss. Alternatively, they may have a view that the core business is worth more, this is supported by brokers ratings where circa 130p-150p seems to be the current range. Whatever the motives they believe FGP will be either a good dividend payer in future and/or expect some good capital growth in the coming years. Who knows but I will keep my modest holding for now and may increase if it drops much lower and we get clarity on greyhound payout.
Thought the offer was 118p, the rest being contingent based on returns from First Transit earnout and greyhound sale mainly.
Note 9 "£990.0m of additions relate to the extension of leases as a result of signing of the National Rail Contract in Great Western Railway."
Leases for rail assets main reason for debt. Results not bad but not good either. Hinted at a further 1.8p dividend in second half on top of the first half 0.9p. No mention of what they intend to do with Greyhound money that I can see!
On Wednesday we will find out how they intend to return value to shareholders after the sale of greyhound. I personally would like to see a special dividend rather than a buyback!
Statement re First Transit Earnout
Released : 26.10.2022
FIRSTGROUP PLC
FIRST TRANSIT EARNOUT
In accordance with the terms of the disposal of First Transit by FirstGroup plc ('FirstGroup' or the 'Group') to EQT Infrastructure V ('EQT Infrastructure') in July 2021, the Group has been notified that affiliates of EQT Infrastructure have signed an agreement to sell First Transit to Transdev North America, Inc. (the 'Sale by EQT'). The Sale by EQT is subject to customary conditions, including regulatory and antitrust clearance processes in the US and Canada.
As part of the First Transit disposal to EQT Infrastructure, FirstGroup is entitled to an earnout consideration, which is calculated as a percentage of the realised equity value on the Sale by EQT and contemplating the cash flows generated by First Transit since March 2021 to completion (subject to certain permitted leakage provisions). FirstGroup currently estimates the earnout consideration to be around $85m. Based on this estimate, FirstGroup is expected to record a non-cash loss of c.£30m relative to the carrying value of the earnout of £106m as at 26 March 2022. The final earnout consideration amount will be determined in the period following completion of the Sale by EQT, with receipt expected several months after completion.
Graham Sutherland, FirstGroup CEO, said:
"Receipt of the First Transit earnout proceeds will be another milestone in the transformation that FirstGroup has undertaken in recent years to refocus on our strong positions in UK bus and rail. The earnout proceeds will further strengthen our business, which is now a resilient and robust platform with a range of opportunities for growth and shareholder value creation."
The market is in turmoil caused by external macro factors, not by DVRG actions. Yes, it is disappointing the impact on the SP however for me and many other PI's, the options today, are selling up (at a significant loss), holding tight or averaging down. I have chosen the last option as still believe the fundamental reasons for investing in DVRG have not changed. Trying times but heyho that's investing.
Statement re West Coast Partnership Contract Extension
Released : 07.10.2022
FIRSTGROUP PLC
WEST COAST PARTNERSHIP CONTRACT EXTENSION
FirstGroup plc today announces that it has agreed with the Department for Transport (‘DfT’) to extend the current contractual arrangements for the West Coast Partnership (‘WCP’) to the end of March 2023. The WCP rail contract comprises operation of Avanti West Coast and acting as shadow operator to the HS2 programme.
WCP is currently operating under an Emergency Recovery Measures Agreement (‘ERMA’) which was put in place by the DfT in September 2020 to provide continuity for rail passengers and the industry during the recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. The ERMA arrangements for WCP were previously set to expire on 16 October 2022 and will now run until the end of March 2023 under broadly the same terms and conditions. Discussions are ongoing with DfT regarding the longer-term National Rail Contract for WCP.
Commenting, Graham Sutherland, FirstGroup Chief Executive Officer said:
"We are committed to working closely with government and our partners across the industry to deliver a successful railway that serves the needs of our customers and communities. Today’s agreement allows our team at Avanti West Coast to sustain their focus on delivering their robust plan to restore services to the levels that passengers rightly expect."
Legal Entity Identifier (LEI): 549300DEJZCPWA4HKM93. Classification as per DTR 6 Annex 1R: 3.1.
WHO approval was given on a conditional basis due to COVID and now requires a confirmatory study. This was explained in the results presentation (20.36mins in).
Anyone know why 2 price monitoring extensions today, given low volumes ?