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I'm wondering how much stock is still short here. Euroclear has shown 4% on loan since May / June.
The stock on loan for September is 4.38% ~ 6M shares. That is actually rather a lot in terms of shorting, and likely multiple firms as no one has declared over 0.5%. Looking at the volume chart, some stock may have been returned on the 19th (Trading update day!), but I'm not convinced it has all been purchased. No way any was bought on other days in September other than the 19th - volume too low, and I know first hand they were selling to me, not buying. I wonder if there was an expectation of a placing to cover the short, which has now been ruled out. Was that the reason why the RNS made it clear there would be no placing, its basically public info how much stock is on loan. With the price too low, it made an equity raise almost impossible. You would think all existing parties would have been unhappy that amount of dilution. I think up in the teens they might have considered it, but not at 4 or 5p. The teens would have been a fair mcap for the company, had there not been short selling IMO (based on hard and soft assets). It could well go back there relatively easily, after all that is the price the multiple directors bought in at. It would be great if the CEO and CFO could make a meaningful purchase and set out their stall, now that a raise is off the cards.
Middle of next year, with inflation already lower than peak and as rates normalise, and the general election ramps up, I think we will see more spending on home DIY etc. We will actually be back to the 'cant afford to move, so improve' mantra. Safe style could do really well from this. There may even be incentives to upgrade windows re-introduced by the govt.
With EDF holding such a large stake, I think they will take this private rather than see dilution?
Yep, LWHL, thats how its done. PMI will be fine...eventually.
Well its been 2 weeks, guess its time to issue some more shares.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BEG/additional-allotment-and-new-issue-dbounqcc21qig1b.html
1% short, judging from the price action here. Had a few more, really like this company. Left a bit of room, as we have a trading update fairly soon, but the company is in good health from last financials, and well regarded. A few in the £2's would not trouble me at all.
Ok, ill take down my I3 share certificates. They are looking a bit tatty now, and frankly did not impress any visitors on the rare occasion they came, one asking for a TV license and the other asking his football back. I said, 'Wot, you dont know who Majid is..'. The TV license guy did take quite a shine to my life size Eric Nuttal cut out. I told him the bull case for oil, but never got the chance to finish about the strategic reserves, as he said he had to check out the young mother (of the football owner) - I assume he meant license, or he probably went and bought I3 shares in envy of mine.
One difference with a CFD, is that is costs to own it (finance cost). So they do not make you a long term holder in my mind.
Polus increased CFD prior to AGM.
Cup of tea with Eric now...
Probably less exciting because he rules out a take over in the RNS.
Yes, ownership by directors or non execs is a very good thing - as long as it remains a minority stake, less than 30%. If the people making decisions and spending money have bought shares like you and me, our aims are aligned. It is only bad, when these people own more than 50%, because they could then win any vote in the company. Look at IBPO delisting recently, with the owner at 70% there he can and did do what he wanted. Breedon is a quality outfit, if Abicad wants to increase his stake that is a very good thing.
Tony, in your post you have missed an important point with CFD's. CFD's can allow a short position, as you said, you can bet on the share price movement, but in either way. What I often see, when stake building or selling, the CFD is sometimes in the opposite direction of the actual share trade. This hedges the adverse movement by such large volume in the market. I do not follow PANR, so not sure (or interested) on what ever happened there, but this is sometimes an explanation for these type of fluctuations. EG, the participant could have dumped some shares and hedged this with a short CFD. The profit form the short CFD would have made up some of the drop from the sale. I see this all the time in other stocks, especially from Blackrock. For a smaller operator, (still bigger than a PI) then yes, they may sell shares and move to CFD, especially if being margin called elsewhere. Selling shares and going to CFD would in theory free up more cash. But from a single TR1 you cant work out which one of these scenarios it is. For me, I would prefer a large investor to hold direct shares, it shows more commitment. Also the CFD could actually relate to direct sales in the market, by the counter party so closing a large CFD could cause volatility.
In the case of Polus, my feeling is that they are more interested in voting rights (again offered by CFD's) rather than exposure to share price movements. I base this assumption on the behaviour of them and JPM, especially around the AGM and the special resolutions that were voted down and not approved - i.e. if there is dilution then those with voting rights will get first offer.
BEXIMCO operates one of the largest integrated textile production businesses in Asia. Its main manufacturing base is the BEXIMCO Industrial Park in Gazipur, Bangladesh. Beximco Pharma, the group's pharmaceutical producer, was the first Bangladeshi company to be listed on the London Stock Exchange.
Why did they list in London and not the Dhaka? Seem to be owned by a parent company, why list at all. I am sometimes a little sceptical of these set ups. Why exactly does it need a London listing?
Please sir, can I have some more.
I did consider posting a reply, but I know nothing about BXP. Different reasons for holding perhaps, Im waiting for a buy out here, with Dbay up to 20% over the year, and that being their M.O. No idea about BXP, is it an Indian company?
Not sure it matters much, as according to the last interview Tom has little interest in the share price, or rather feels it is out of his control. He could be right, this is a buy and hold for a couple of years, then a nice dividend?
What ever next? Underwater on said purchase like the rest of us mugs.
I really hope they do an investor meet (though that does cost money so unlikely).
They managed a trading update for the full year in 2022. Bear in mind the FY financial year ends 31 May 2023, so I see no reason why some TU could not have been released. Last year they suffered delays with results from Auditors, so the November date was actually late. They had originally planned to announce in October.
Sometimes, TU are not forthcoming, as they dont want to pre-warn they need a raise. This could also be why the auditors cause delays. I disagree that it is too costly or time consuming to make a announcement in July regarding the end of the FY year. In fact, they probably would have done this if they had good news?
I will be pleased if they can get by with no more raising. They had quite a bit of debt stated, in the last HY report. But hopefully the sale of the property and the placing (even though it was stated the money was for other purposes) might have done it. The company needs to tell us EXACTLY what the debt looks like going forward, when it is due etc.
Again, lack of clarity in the updates makes it anyone's guess if they will want more money or not. I am certain that this company does not value small investors, as my enquiries have gone un answered. As I said, I did buy today, but still feel quite pessimistic here.
The 2.8499 was my buy. Probably cleared the last few shares to print the large sell.
No way of knowing in this market, what the sell means. Could just be a forced seller.
I think the company has been too quiet, they are not engaging and trying to increase the share price here, which is worrying. I would be more accepting of raising further money, if the company had kept us more informed, and we had more visibility of the efforts being made. I hope we do not hear from them just for more money. On the other hand, I have seen a few buy outs that match this pattern, of silence then offer, but even so most holders will be out of pocket at 4p for example. Total gamble I feel, hence small top up.
I sold out of OSI before the offer, very similar. I hope the II percentage here makes them behave themselves.
Glad your still here LV. Not ideal, but not worth bailing now. Could work out well regards timing of other stock.
The head office was purchased in 2015 on IPO, and not been revalued. Neither has the factory completed in 2017.
I am not saying this is straight forward, and the lease liabilities for the branches must be eye watering.
I was just making the point that I think someone will want this. You are right, there are so many variables here that unlikely anyone could value this without more info. However, I do not see administration, for reasons I have posted on the Aurelius thread. Its obviously a gamble and carries some risk, but this seems an over reaction today, given the RNS was positive with new lenders and existing lender willing to allow covenant breach. A buy out would make most sense, to be run by an entity with deeper pockets, until economy improves. That is my position here.