Member Info for Darth.Trader

The number of COVID-19 patients in U.S. hospitals breached 100,000, the highest level in eight months, as a resurgence of the coronavirus spurred by the highly contagious Delta variant strains the nation's health care system

DYOR

to hold emergency Covid briefing today amid 'sharp rise' in cases
The First Minister is to hold an urgent Covid briefing today as cases continue to rise around Scotland and Edinburgh - with the Lothians now labeled as a European hotspot.

DYOR

little Falker, chasing losses ....

DYOR

BA warns of serious cost problems when furlough ends..
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58355105

Furlough...., canary in the mineshaft?

DYOR

"if that is true why the stock markets around the world are all time high"

QE, Government support, Excessive optimism, etc..
DYOR

Every Success Model Falls.

Here’s the latest news from the global pandemic.

EU to discuss reimposing Covid-related travel curbs on U.S.

Get shots or get out, U.S. employers are telling workers

The world economy’s supply chain problem keeps getting worse

Upended by delta
The delta variant is upending every model of success that’s emerged in the past 18 months, sending economies once ranked as among the best places to be in the pandemic tumbling in Bloomberg’s August Covid Resilience Ranking.

The new strain has dashed hopes that a quick exit from the pandemic is in sight, whether for countries that prioritized domestic containment by cutting themselves off from international travel, or economies that doubled down on vaccination and reopening.

Take New Zealand, the Ranking’s longest-reigning No. 1—it’s been on top for six of 10 editions, with its population living for much of the past year as if Covid did not exist. Yet delta somehow infiltrated its fortress-like border defenses earlier this month. The country went from having one of the world’s most relaxed conditions to its strictest as the government invoked the highest level of lockdown, sending it tumbling 26 spots.

Or look at Israel and the U.S., both highly ranked in the spring and early summer for vaccination and reopening. When the Ranking was revamped in June to reflect progress towards normalization, the U.S. was No. 1 as people ventured out and life opened up again. Now, both countries are facing surges in infections driven by delta, while hospitalizations are rising fast.

For now, European nations are proving the most resilient with a middle-ground strategy of widespread immunization and reopening based on vaccination status. Nine of the top 10 were from the continent, with Norway holding onto the top spot for the second month running.

At the other end of the spectrum is Southeast Asia, where all bottom five countries are located, with Malaysia the last at No. 53. The plight of developing places is likely only to worsen through the final months of 2021, as richer countries start preparing booster vaccination shots, laying claim to even more supply.

How long can Europe’s success hold? Will countries be able to beat back delta’s advance? Stay tuned as we move into September.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-08-26/every-success-model-falls?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business
DYOR

China property market curbs may be "volcker moment" says Nomura..

Beijing's unprecedented determination to curb the property sector could be China's "Volcker Moment" as it will cause a "significant" slowdown in economic growth, according to Nomura Holdings Inc.

Unlike in previous economic down cycles, Chinese authorities look set to tighten property sector policy and tame prices this time, in order to reduce wealth inequality and boost the falling birthrate, economists led by Lu Ting wrote in a report Tuesday. Policy makers will be willing to sacrifice near-term economic growth to tame house prices and divert financial resources out of the property sector, which accounts for a quarter of China's gross domestic product, they wrote.

A "Volcker Moment" refers to a policy change like the decision by the Federal Reserve under former chairman Paul Volcker to quickly raise interest rates to 20 per cent to contain the inflation of the late 1970s. That sudden change caused a jump in unemployment but also led to inflation slowing.

"Markets over the near term need to be prepared for a likely marked growth slowdown, more developer defaults and home foreclosures, and perhaps some turmoil in stock markets," the economists wrote.

Authorities appear to be determined to expand the property tax scheme from trials in Shanghai and Chongqing cities to the entire nation, according to the report. This will address wealth inequality and help replace local governments' income from land sales, which will be reduced by the ongoing curbs, the report said. - Bloomberg

DYOR

stalks credit markets.

Bad loans and developer defaults jump.
China junk debt market sinking as U.S./Europe rally.
Authorities want to wean economy from real estate - strategist.

China's push to wean property developers from excessive borrowing is spilling over into loan losses at banks and pain in credit markets as cash-strapped builders fall into distress, raising the risk of fallout rippling across the economy.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-property-crackdown-stalks-credit-markets-2021-08-26/?taid=61276ad5fbb26300018c2469&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
DYOR

to fall 8% in Q3 after record Q2
Global corporate profits in the third quarter are likely to fall for the first time in 18 months after record earnings in April-June, Reuters calculations showed, as the spreading COVID-19 Delta variant squeezes supply chains and raises labour costs.

Massive fiscal stimulus to support economic recovery and loosened pandemic curbs generated high consumer demand in the second quarter, and companies contending with disrupted supplies and falling inventories raised prices to offset rising input costs.

This helped boost the combined net profits of 2,542 global companies with market capitalisation of at least $1 billion to a record $734 billion in the quarter ended June, according to a Reuters analysis of Refinitiv data.

But profits are estimated to fall 8% on average to $678.2 billion in the July-September quarter.

China's factory output and retail sales growth contracted sharply in July, as new COVID-19 outbreaks and floods disrupted business operations, while U.S. business activity growth slowed for a third straight month in August.

Also, a months-long shortage of semiconductor chips that forced automakers to slash production and smartphone makers to save chips for popular models is turning into a fresh crisis as COVID-19 cases surge in Asian countries that are key to global supply chains.

read more;
https://www.reuters.com/business/global-corporate-profits-fall-8-q3-after-record-q2-data-2021-08-25/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social
DYOR

"feel free to think of more".

lack of skilled people, booster jabs required, Taiwan, Tapering......and lets throw in a Black Swan.

DYOR

"" 45p will be broken today""

No it will not...
DT

most likely to be true.
What is the simplest answer I could dream up?
The simplest answer that doesn’t need an explanation is: “It’s the top of the market.”
That’s a sobering thought.
I’m not sure, but there doesn’t need to be a reason or a somebody to define when a crash happens. If it does, there will be a “he said this” or ‘they did that’ narrative, but what I’ve learnt over the years is accidents happen because of probabilities, and probabilities are driven by risk, and risk is mainly driven by systemics. The configuration of the system is more likely to make booms and busts than a somebody or a something.
I could spin you some rumours but what I see is a strong move to risk off and if whatever is driving that enters a liquidation phase then there will be a big correction and perhaps even a mighty crash.
This all kicked off in the middle of June when the Fed discussed elevated inflation; many interpreted that as a prelude to US interest rates rising. So that is the start of this ‘risk off’ move. However, even if the market is looking forward a year ahead, there is unlikely to be significant interest rates by then or any time soon. That in itself is no good reason for the markets to start heading for the exit.
… but they are heading for the exit and that might just be because the stock market is at its peak. With the market caps of companies like Amazon surpassing the GDP of whole countries such as Russia and Brazil, and its boss heading to space in his personal rocket, why couldn’t this be the top?
This is the chart that clarifies my position: (chart here)
The current vertical is a replica of the Dotcom.
Bubbles are special and when they repeat their ascent you must be very wary indeed. Here is the Dotcom next to today’s Nasdaq chart: (chart here)
Right now, this is my roadmap and if we haven’t got a Nasdaq crash by late September, I’ll be sneaking back in. There could be some head room for the Nasdaq but the above looks perilous indeed.
Now I used this technique to call Bitcoin up and trade the top and many will think this idea has no value. Yet in my experience when markets bubble, or for that matter crash, they do so because they are broken by some new factor. The Fed broke the markets to the upside by its QE innovations, but at some point, the music has to stop. For me, now looks like a strong candidate for that and I’m out.
They say no one rings a bell at the top of the market. In the non sequitur manner of stock market saying, this means no one tells you when the market peaks or for that matter knows when it has.
“Well ding-dong!”

John, no problem, here it is although the article does contain charts…
“”I bailed out of the market on Friday (7/16/21) … everything but precious metal and associated stocks. I might sell those too.The only reason to sell out of your portfolio is if you think there is going to be a crash. Make no mistake, calling a crash is the hardest of all things to get right, but thus far I’ve been fortunate enough to get them all since the Dotcom.
Why have I done this now?
It is easy to state that the Fed has got our backs and the trend is so clear it’s hard to justify calling a crash. I’m calling a crash because of a long tortuous trail of research starting with the fact my portfolio was getting pummeled while the index wasn’t. This is the starting point.
First off, I’m a UK share specialist. I do US stocks but it’s not my ‘jam.’ However, as we know, all markets are connected, some at the hip. So why was I getting whacked when the stocks that were in my portfolio were mainly blue chips and - with 40 of them - highly diversified (clearly not diversified after all on some dimension)?
The answer is simple. They are high beta or perhaps better thought of as ‘risk on’ shares, and the market has been going risk off for two-to-three weeks and zapping me. It all kicks off from the last Fed meeting.
In the past, when my portfolio malfunctions it’s a sign that a big correction is on the way. Now don’t feel sorry for me, I have put back 10% of my profits from the last year. Last year was truly massive, so I’m not weeping into my Château Margaux. However, I’m telling you now because it looks like we are about to go into a very dangerous period.
The market is going risk off, so what next?
The market could go ‘risk on’ or it could go SELL. If it goes sell, then it will likely crash.
This is my thought process:
Yikes the market is going risk off heavily and rotating into ‘risk off’ stocks. In the US, this is rotation into the Tera-caps like Amazon, Apple etc. The spicy stuff is getting crushed with SPACs and biotech’s getting lashed. It’s the same picture in the UK.
What’s causing it?
There are two suspects and maybe they are in league: Delta Covid and QE tapering.
So, let’s think about that. Delta should be a known by now and priced in, so when you see airlines and hotels rallying you must wonder if Covid can possibly be driving this rotation?
Taper tantrums? With the US saying that rising interest rates are months and years away and with Delta looming and national deficits and debt at incredible highs how can tightening be a thing?
Going to “risk off” is because something known but un-projectable has arrived. Is that Delta or another of the many variants of Covid to come? Is it sell in May and go away? Well, if it is I’ll be back in September.
I’ve been wrestling with this for some time now and have not been able to square what I’m seeing with what is ‘out there.’ Then I referred to Occam, the priest who believed the simplest answer is the one most like

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439933-stock-market-crash-2021-you-cant-unsee-this-chart
DYOR

https://www.newsweek.com/are-we-about-repeat-2008-housing-crisis-opinion-1620249
DYOR

https://www.newsweek.com/are-we-about-repeat-2008-housing-crisis-opinion-1620249%3Cspan%20id=%22ms-outlook-android-cursor%22%3E!~OMSelectionMarkerEnd~
DYOR

is suffering the worst shortages of workers and materials in decades - here's why

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000yzgh?at_custom4=A68D7F82-04EB-11EC-B228-4BF015F31EAE&at_campaign=64&at_custom3=%40BBCBusiness&at_medium=custom7&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_custom2=twitter
DYOR

S&P 500 hits another record high...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fastest-bull-market-history-sp-500-doubles

DYOR

"" I have my vacuum out..."

Suckers...

just say'n...

DT