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After thinking for a bit..... this could be a deal with great bear to drill !!!!
The finfeed article back in October when we raised last time said that 88e say these fund could be used to fund new opportunities etc..... let’s see but I hope that’s what it is for! That prospect just 5 miles north of us would be good!!!! Let’s hope so! And a raising for that around this price I can live with!
My first reaction was negative but if it’s for this purpose then I would support it! Time will tell!
FFS DW!
Ok we don’t know the price but ya on the London market will be punished no doubt! Been here 5years plus and can’t wait to see the back of DW!
Last raise was 50% below today’s price .... what’s changed since then? He better ****ing sell his arse because anything near that price would destroy momentum and lose if it’s not already any confidence!!! Can’t stand this guy! Am out after results!
I can’t see new before next Thursday 8th of August. Anything before would indicate bad news imo.
That would be 35 days of drilling and to answer those questions before.... eco won’t know any results before total depth! That’s how industry works Tullow are the operator here and legally have to keep quiet until t.d. So loads of games to be played with regards to the sp and loads of emotional investors and even more uneducated investors so please dyor and good luck! Personally holding for results and added yesterday. I expect £2-£3 plus after positive 2 Wells.
My thoughts where to drill the majority of the prospects within 2 years then sell to get the biggest bang for buck.
We may get $1 or a bit more for unproven oil in ground and $5-$12 for proven that’s why I think it’s better to drill as many prospects in 2 years and get more money for it but we will see.
I think it was always the plan to go back to Jethro after joe in the success case. Gill has said Jethro lob is the target of the first drill and if successful it opens up a complex this is what the wider area is all about! Now the question is how big could it be? Great time to be involved but a couple of years more drilling before complete buyout will be truly transformational for shareholders! Lots going on and lots to be excited about! Ofcourse buyout could happen anytime.
If we farmout to a major and are drilling an exploration / appraisal well........ come on guys! What are we appraising especially if a major oil company agrees! There is oil there .... I give up with this board, seriously!
All the best to the long term shareholders especially those who continue to help others, I just can’t take the amount of incompetence (no offence meant) wish you all the best! For the record I will always hold my shares until sellout I just give up with this board. Sure I won’t be missed anyway don’t post often due the reason I am leaving haha
2.1p would be less than when Dave said transformational so I would be disappointed! In general that would be **** in my opinion... but I would expect that on a 1 well only farmout and I expect a deal to include several hundred million over the next few years or to take discoveries into production. That would be transformational and a much higher share price!
Timeline is less important, its whats in the detail that is important and is what will rerate our share price or not.
1 well farm out or several hundred millions spent over x years are 2 completely different deals and the reaction will be massively different too obviously.
OSH deal due end of this month too.
I genuinley think people/investors have underestimated what is comming. Just my opinion. But agreed very frustrating that last couple of years, all the promise but nothing but value destruction from a shareprice point of view but in theory the board have acheived alot and created value in the background and its time for it to be giving value when it becomes public by the market.
rfara, those companies west of us OSH and COP don't have to come through us at all for anything they find!
They can go north through horseshoe and willow etc.
My point was it could be easier for those lease operators to be involved with 88e as they can all save money and I would assume it would be the cheaper option. Ofcourse those leases they hold further north including horseshoe and will can still go the northern pipeline route.
DW reference your refering to was correct at the time and still is in theory but practically more so for the acerage east of us where there would be no alternative for them if they didnt come through us but the ones west can go north if they choose to do so. I would assume common sense would prevail and all companies would engange in talks about how to minimise the foot prints they leave behind etc and would work together.
Spike firstly by my maths 5p sp is equal to £315m mcap ( dependant on what type of deal he does I believe its achievable).
Secondly DW has stated multiple times that a tier 1 company would want to see a multi year campaign not just 1 well.
Also DW has stated that we have created (substantial i think was the word) value across all our acerage including the conventional and it is time to go to industry who value us ( as we are currently valued like an option ) and by doing a deal it will underpin the value ( SP ) to what level who knows? We need to see the deal if there is one first. But remember this is due to be a transformational deal and year for 88e investors. Time will tell!
Cant see this FO being just 1 well. I could probably understand 1 well this winter and 3D over the whole acerage and more well to follow over the next few winter seasons up to an agreed amount.
I may be foolish or too optimistic but from my perspective anything less than $X ( several hundred million ) farm out to be spent on over x years or to production is what I expect from this FO plus back dates costs. After all this is what DW has alluded to, granted before negotiations took place. But on the other side of that coin DW has been saying they have had unsolicited interest before we even started the FO process and there must of been talk/negotiations then prior to the official FO and tougher/official negotiations, and his comments about being confident of closing it last year as planned. Again i could buy the reasons for delaying it but just goes to show he cant keep to his own origianls deadlines which i find extremely annoying as it happens time and time again and investors us small guys lose patience and sentiment goes. If this turns out to be a 1 well FO ( which i dont think it will be ) then its time for DW to go in my opinion, might sound harsh to some who are loyal etc which i understand but there has only been value destruction for a few years now and in those few years we where suppose to have proven and gone by now!
Apoligies for the rant! Just my opinion/frustration showing through - lets see what he can deliver. Overall i still think several hundred millions in a work programe is the most likley outcome here, DD will have been completed now and final approvals i would guess are complete ( according to the last RNS deadlines/timescales ) and we have not heard anyhting which means its continuing as planned. 2 weeks left in June so final documentaion ( legal side ) could come at any point, mostley likley towards end of June.
My biggest concern was whoever the FO partner is doesnt sign with OSH and leave us out in the cold at the last minuite - i hope its someone different from that deal and increases the competitiveness in our favour. 1 thing no one has mentioned is that the southern acerage ( west to us ) CP and OSH who now have 3D, it would make sense for them to be involved with us as they can run a pipeline through all 3 sites from the main road, which would help lower overall costs for all 3 projects.
Lets see what happens, squeeky bum time!! Good Luck!
Hey Mickey, good to see you posting. I never doubted you where still kicking around in the background but I do enjoy your enthusiasm although it has been a sluggish and frustrating couple of years even though the potential still lies underneath the ground.
FO should help progress things a lot quicker and should give those investors into deep to take some off the table, main prize is still a few years away though so its a hold long term for me. ATB Mikey!
WA - if DW reads these boards he must be tempted to get a restraining order out against you lol, if he doesn't deliver well you have explained your temptation to visit him to put it politely haha..... I wonder if he manages to get a sp to 10p plus in the next year or so if he would still need one as you would probably over excited and round his house trying to hump his leg haha. Take care and take it easy on the beer - Aussies will need some left when this proves successful.
We should hear news about OSH farm out by end of May as my understanding is that their deal/option to acquire the rest of the acreage with Armstrong has to be decided by June 2019 and OSH have said the will execute it based on a third party farm in. I would assume they would execute regardless anyway but a farm in there will show a value of their acreage. Would make sense for COP to be the favourite their due to shared infrastructure but I guess it comes down to price etc.
Our farm out although can come anytime, could already be agreed and just going through lawyers etc and waiting on the signatures etc I would imagine if our partner is COP then they wouldn't want to show a value of acreage with us before sealing a deal with OSH if that make sense so I would imagine the 2 deals with follow each other within days/weeks if agreed. Although both deal are completely different - this maybe is what is holding it up, I cant see it being a case of not having settled on a price at this point! It could be the HRZ that's holding it up but I doubt it as I would go with DW when he says the most likely is 2 separate deals. Time will tell but there should be news end of may and us to follow in June if not before.
Made by final top up today of 828k shares taking me to just over 6million all in ISA so I am in deeeeep for me anyway. Looking to take something off the table after next years drilling campaign hopefully a couple of conventional wells and HRZ plus 3D results shot over the 19/20 winter season if farm out is done.
Also for what its worth - the new pad for the unconventional next to the road MUST (surely) be done over Alpha ) that's a free test of 300mmbbl plus and can easily go into production quickly!! BWTFDIK
Exactly my frustration! And DW has asked where they are not meeting our expectations at presentation in the past and he does the same thing again in the most recent interview. It becomes very annoying when he can't even meet sort timescale dates he sets himself! They must be keeping the Yukon and HRZ news back in case of no deal and the release of the above news would help stabilise the sp before a capital raise.
Personally I am confident of a FO but I won't be happy if it leaves us with less than 30%. Then again I am not a happy shareholder atm due to the sp and lack of progress.
I would of thought whoever we are talking to could also be talking to OSH as they have until June to transact on their deal with Armstrong. I just hope the FO doesn't leave us and go with OSH only and we have to go back and start again!
Anyway DW has stated they have created value so let's see what value he has created.... I think a stable of around 4p with a possible spike 6-7p on a FO. I am thinking $400m carry for a total of 60% leaving us with 30% and BEX 10% .... can't be far off news either way!
Brom, do you know if that was our final interpretation of the Yukon lease? The only new info I see is the 300ft thick gross... I was expecting an increase in resource and time wise for end of April. I will email Dave but just wondered if someone else had .....?