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I'd rather we didn't spend a penny on riverbanks, and spent on more wells, that way when the bank collapsed and silts up the river, we can marvel at how many wells we've shut in because we can't get their production barged away.
It's not a cost, it's an investment, and I'm scratching my head trying to work out why anyone would think otherwise....
Some excellent posts on here as ever. Thanks for them.
Drawing together some of those details, at $80 bbl with $17 opex on 64k bbl, and presuming a 50/50 share for the last 12 months with Mobil, I get $1.7b already in the lockbox since Jan2021
Westmoreland are not the robust organizations SOHO suggest, having been censured by the social housing regulator for rent over charging not very long ago. And selling properties ? The last sales, according to Co updates was just to reaffirm the BAV, reassure investors. These subsequent sales either suggest that wasn't true, and was because of fiscal need, or that they are retrenching, not growing their proposition. I don't see this as good news at all, and as a big fan, this rns concerns me
Yesondoner7, tha k you for your excellent posts. I agree. Whilst affordable may be lower margin, it brings secure up front cash (quasi govt funding/grants), so a more capital light business, and allows an anchoring/certainty leveraging into economies for the private (more speculative) sales. Continuity and certainty bring value, and that's what 'affordable' brings to Vistry
It's quite obvious the approach is made because of the property - EP Group's property company's stated operational purpose is....."This role has gradually evolved into the preparation of transformational projects that explore the potential of areas whose energy-industrial use has been exhausted....."
Spare industrial property ripe for projects? Now who has a shed load of that. And selling out the Europe parcels business will cover the costs of such ambition.
..........."Dividends are tax-efficient means to draw a salary. Given the size of the shareholding from the board, I would not discount the fact that they missed the deadline for special dividends.
In my books it merits a bit of patience up to July."..........
Recent performance/oil price does suggest considerable room to raise, but as I've said before, I'd prefer the steady and sure 2c which is already a handsome shareholder reward. I'd rather ad hoc specials as (outperformance) warrants, without holding itself hostage to fortune. I am a BIG fan of the conservative pragmatism here, of it's expectation setting, of not shooting the stars out, just delivering consistently and constantly. Because of the mgmt style, I don't ever see the SP skylining, just a slow and sure drip drip rise, and I'll take that every day rather than the usual rollercoaster of broken projections ended.ic in AIM/small stock.
Just quick thank to the numerous posters for the really informative/insightful considerations in the last couple of days, on the EPL, forward looking dividend, ENI. The detail, the number crunching delivered takes time (I know having done likewise for other stocks I hold), and.to do such, to share such here so we don't all have to, is a true service. So thank you.
My tuppence, I'm a big fan of ITH. EPL or no EPL/replacement EPL they are laser focused on returns e and we will get such riding Delek's coattails. And the ENI deal sounds great, if only at the level of garnering economies of scale/efficiencies.
Fevertreeman; I agree with your post (comparison to Birkenstock). The only little I would make, that I believe constituents a difference, is that Birkenstock haven't sacrificed the uniqueness/quality/heritage by moving to cheaper outsourced production (as far as I know). On the buyout front, agree this is ripe/inevitable at current valuation, albeit no chance of a Nike type doing it. I've posted before a couple of potential acquirers, and just today thought GIIi apparel (who produce some high end fashion names shoes) and Hannesbrands (who don't have ANY shoe brands). Neither are big enough I'd think to takeover DOCS but a merger of sorts could be advantageous - Hannesbrands 200 stores would no doubt help US distribution/sales. I don't think these US Cos even know who DOCS are (the potential, for them), but if I was the biss of Hannes, I would see a great opportunity, in DOCS, the profits of them, but also in selectively distributing their respected Haynes/Champion products in the bespoke UK centric DOCS store portfolio - call it a leverage into greater acceptance of their core in the UK/Europe.
As it is, I'm just a DOCS shareholder. But there is deep value here for the patient, and it's not if, but when, it gets taken out.
Particularly liked the accessibility, frankness and awareness of this comment in the boss' statement to shareholders:
The discount of our share price to our NAV per
share has remained too wide, despite our share
price increasing by 40% during 2023, and we
responded to this by buying back more of our
shares (perhaps the best investment we can be
making at the current levels of NAV discount),
and reducing leverage in the business
Great update, and I say that because their is no fireworks there, and no surprises. No promising the earth, but never being sidetracked by the realities/variances concomitant with their locale. Just boringly delivering predictability.
And the SP may be moving barely/sideways, but I like that. Because the mgmt culture is such not to promise the earth, a ine off 5 bagger, but be disciplined and deliver a healthy sustainable long term return.
Evidenced by spending a fifth of their mkt cap on capex a year. By projecting on $77 bbl despite reporting figures where based on a realised price of $81.05 (down from $84.95) and current oil price being above their $77. By their not spurting production upwards, before managing/diversifying product routes to market..By reducing their bonds. By retaining £70m cash for eventualities. By maintaining the dividend, at a healthy level, but retaining flexibility with cash for eventualities.
This is a mgmt/CO whose discipline/pragmatism is to under promises and over deliver. Frankly, and delightfully, i've filed this holding in the boringly predictable put away and forgot about draw.
No boom or bust here. In long term enriching income, I trust
Youhavingalaufh; I'm a mong term holder and fan, but my fan is wanting. The points you make are pertinent, which increasingly I'm agreeing with you on. Is it jam for you and me tommorow, tommorow, tommorow, or funded pet projects for scientists and healthy remuneration for mgmt, whilst ticking over, but only supporting those ambitions/costs and not returns to shareholders?
Darientaylor; agree you are buying at a massive discount to NAV, which I think is probably valid. But you don't have a comfort of such, is the SP, in 18 months lost more. At full realisation, (of NAV), you'd still be underwater. And even if you bought today, that NAV comfort blanket is only warming if it is returned materially, fiscally to shareholders.
The buybacks abandonment of dividends shows their is no focus, or urgency to prioritise profits to shareholders
Edwardseaton; totally agree. I WANT the energy transition, believe it is right, needed. But I'm in TGA, and many other 'dirty' energy producers because of the price disconnect caused by the timeline realisation disconnect. Dirty stuff will be needed for 30 years, and thereafter always needed to a minimal point. Dirty stocks are priced as if their product is going to be redundant/run out in 5 years.
On the results - it is obvious that mgmt are clear that their product has lifespan, albeit within a reducing market (and also within a reducing supply), and they are managing that acceptance. It is also warming to see that, irrespective of a particular years profits, that their focus is to return whatever those profits are.
This will be my last post here.
I've been in DEC a couple of years. Initially attracted by a 10% yield, then further attracted by their proposition. I'm not tree hugger, but I am inherently green. And in DEC's proposition, I didn't see any hypocrisy. What I saw, was someone making something inherently bad for us environmentally, less bad. And undoubtedly better than new production, by stewardship, management of damage already done, and minimising ongoing damage (by utilising resource, by plugging it where necessary rather than let it just seep).
I was a big fan of that proposition; if they can deliver that proposition (I'm skeptical), I will be delighted. I think DEC IS undervalued if they can deliver on their projections, but I think their projections are skylining.
DEC was in recent times my single biggest holding, I believed in their offering that much. It is now an insignificant holding. I sold mostly out at a not insignificant loss, but at a point, where that sale looks like a genius decision now. I wish well for DEC, and it's holder's but I don't believe their 30-50 years production, and certainly not at levels that are profitable . What I do see, is a capping business that will provide a low margin but high volume long term sustainable, societally appreciated (hence SP appreciated) profit, utility like. The value in DEC is in their leveraging/IPOing/metaphorphasing into that, into long term sustainable income, rather than dirty, societally questioned gas production.
I'm not going to further post here, because, I don't want to be part of a happy clappy DEC to the moon cult. And it's prevelance here does investors an injustice. I'm not interested in likes, I make my contribution to aid understanding, not for fandom, but when you make a serious of posts discussing the fundamentals, barely acknowledged, whilst a more gungholy positive post receives considerably more 'likes', you have to accept you are speaking into a void.
I'm not here for fandom, I'm not here to contribute pointlessly against a euphoric cult. And there is a blind cult here.
Ace of clubs; just like to thank you for your posts. The content of which first alerted me, that DEC wasn't the Euphoria I thought it was. I've been maligned for my posts here, but insignificant to the vitriol you have received. Thank you for your pragmatism. And thank you for speaking against the cult, and saving me a fortune.