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DTE - good point regarding tender deadline. If the tenders are in and the funding is being DD'd then there would be a risk of a re-tender if it goes on for too long.
Regarding the request for funds, I don't think they came to us, as it was only open for 90 mins. Shore Capital is who they used to do this. They are based in St James' Square in London and would have invested directly themselves or via other investment funds.
The good news is that the tender for poles and wires can now be awarded, and Tlou is now being invested into by someone other than us retail investors.
All in all, good news as it takes the handbrake off. I think a lot of weak hands will regret selling today.
I think this is interesting stuff. I've been reading about green energy over the past 12 months, and there will be trillions invested in this sector globally over the next decade or so. For Tlou to go for carbon neutrality would allow the major green financiers - I think Qatar have teamed with Enel - to invest in Tlou over the medium term.
The fact that they also want to buy land for this project suggests to me that poles/wires funding is in the bag and just needs a final confirmation. I guess Bots bush is fairly cheap but it will cost Tlou something. It also sets the scene for the potential to supply CBM directly to Orapa (90Mw) with solar and carbon offsetting for the CBM - thus helping De Beers go carbon neutral.
So in the short term we have; funding, PPA, poles/wires tender award, possible announcement regarding Orapa, and flow rates to look forward to.
In the medium term we have; Bots wanting to expand to 250Mw CBM and 750Mw Solar, with Tlou being seen as a carbon neutral provider and international financiers wanting a quick win for their 'green revolution'. The land that Tlou plan to buy could provide both solar and carbon credits.
Longer term we have slow motion collapse of Eskom and increasing demand from the SAPP.
Thanks MM. I'm now wondering if that funding delay from the AfDB/BDC was a blessing in disguise. Imagine if they had the funding say for 01 Dec 19, then 3-4 months later awarded the lines/substation contracts. Then they would have walked straight into the Covid lockdowns. That would surely have triggered a force majeure with the construction companies declaring, with possibly lots of sunk costs and litigation following on. That would have been a bumpy ride, and not an enjoyable one.
Alternatively they could have realised covid is a risk and delay the award. That would have delayed construction for a year, which would have been a better option but with potentially high interest rates on the full $30m loan.
If I had to chose from the 3 options, I'd chose the situation we have been forced to follow for the last year and are in now. Frustrating, but things could have been far worse.
If I understand correctly you have the option of a direct transfer which will cost £40 or to sell all of your Tlou shares and buy back when the funds hit your account which could be 2-3 working days after selling, which will save you £34.
My advice is to go for certainty and stay in the game 100% of the time. I.e. do a transfer for £40 and always ensure you always hold Tlou shares. They will be releasing the RFP for the wires at the end of November and it's highly possible that funding for that (phase 1) is imminent. 6 months ago the risk could have been worth taking (although I'd have still opted for the £40 option) but now I'd say that you risk missing out on a re-rate. Most likely only a 5% chance of missing out, but that's still a risk not worth taking for £34.
Brad not sure about IG but ii.co.uk (Interactive Investor) will let you open a share dealing ISA. The restriction is if you have paid in cash your 2020 allowance (£20k since April 6th this year) into your current ISA. If not you can open and fill it up with up to £20k today. If you have maxed out your allowance you may have to wait until April 2021. But I think you can transfer your current ISA to an ii one. They have a good help desk (via email) which is pretty responsive (takes about an hour), so you can confirm what you can and can't do. Plus lots of FAQ on their web site which should give you the information you need.
The way I see it, options are the following: Use your ISA allowance to invest (£20k/year), use your SIPP allowance to invest (£40k/year) although it's ring fenced until retirement - the future you will thank the current you.
Lastly run a spread bet that is almost unleveraged - say a stop loss at 1p-1.5p. Bet on the futures market for Tlou (say June 2021) and request an automatic rollover of your bet. ISA and Spread Bet are tax free.
Spread betting is not for the emotional or undisciplined as it is too tempting to tweak, time the market or go for high leverage - which is where most fail.
But if you can buy/bet with hardly any leverage and not tweak it, and go for something like a 6-month future with auto rollover then that is a tax free proxy (as it's gambling and not subject to tax) to buyinig shares. IG Index and SpreadEx allow for June 2021 Tlou trades. My ISA and SIPP are in Interactive Investor. Bar the SIPP which I'll worry about on retirement, the others are tax exempt.
Current price is a great entry point and whilst the price will be volatile going up, I'm simply going to HODL and accept that after some brilliant up weeks there will be down weeks. My mantra (stolen) is: 'time in the market is better than timing the market'.
I think we are on the final countdown to ignition, so buckle up everyone.
I did a brief search on the internet to see what micro trades mean with small cap stocks. I found a website with two explanations. Sometimes there are v small trades as the market maker wants a trade to fill in one direction say higher, whilst they have an order to sell a large amount, which they hold back on. It can move the price a bit and so the mm makes the trade at the new price, keeps the profit and executes the order for the seller at the original price. But that only seems to make sense for a small amount of small trades, not 50 or so.
The other theory is that it is a way for mm's to communicate a large move higher or lower to other mm's without actually speaking to one another. A sort of code if you will.
Not sure if the above is true, but the author said he worked with a mm who told him that was how they communicated with one another. That was the best explanation I could find.
Good find MM, and I think I have figured out why there is some confusion on this thread.
Here's how I read it:
Entitlement offer was issued for 75m shares and the existing shareholders opted for 63m of them. That left 11m for the Directors. At the time the following took up: HS 1.7m, GG 0.055m, CC 0.316m, AG 4.7m. That was about 6.7m shares which still left 4.3m for the Directors.
It looks like HS and CC have hoovered up most of that 4.3m remaining.
I wonder if Tlou will get involved in the 2 x 50Mw and or the 55Mw/12 solar projects that the minister talked about. Govt in advanced stage of procurement. Anyone else know about this procurement and who the bidders (or likely bidders) are?
I'd be very surprised and disappointed to see Tlou decline to, or not be invited to bid. Even if the bidders had to be experienced solar providers, Tlou would make an excellent in-country partner. Might be an amazing surprise, might be nothing.
This also sounds very promising: 'Govt will work with private sector to deliver all the new generation capacity'.
Slightly more selling than buying today although the price fell earlier when there was more being bought than sold. Not really fussed as the last 10 trading days were up days, there are always going to be down days or pullbacks. All down to funding expectations and actual funding. Can't really see a problem with Tlou getting 10m as there is so much liquidity in the world looking for a home. Normal day on the roller coaster that is the AIM. As with all things only time will tell.
There is no news as such, but possibly an expectation of funding to be agreed soon. The AGM is tomorrow so some people may be expecting an announcement then. It also may be the money returning that left about 2 1/2 years ago, when the tender was cancelled & delayed by about a year.
Previous spikes have been followed by a slow decline, like a slow puncture. I'm sure there will be a spike on confirmation of funding, plus it may trigger a few 'orders to open' trades. After that, not sure. If the funding is from the BDC then I think there is a due diligence process that has to be followed before the funds are transferred. In that case there may be a slow decline followed by another spike when dd is complete.
I'd keep an eye out for what various investing sites are saying, and if there is a re-rate for the company. I'd say there should be post-due diligence as they will have the funds and approval to bring their product to market via the power line.
From the interview I got the impression that they were going to continue exploration after they have connected to the grid rather than concurrently. That surprised me although it may be a funding issue whereby they can access lower rates if they are trading even just a small amount of power.
If they ultimately want to sell the business, it will then come down to reserves. They will have licences to produce and sell, will have it set up to do so, so all that would be left is to show a good estimate of what it in the ground. So we could be looking at 2-3 years for a sale (although a major might offer early, take a risk and buy cheap) but I'd expect the share price to climb along the way as there is more certainty of Tlou being a viable business so may attract some investors with deeper pockets.
If the contract signature is for 31st Jan (if), and if due diligence for the BDC loan takes say up to 2 months, then I'd say that the last safe moment for Tlou to get that BDC loan would be 30th November. If it's not agreed and signed by then, I'd suggest they may have to get alternative finance from the commercial sector in order to meet their construction timelines.
30th November is the RFP date for the actual tenders. I'd guess they would have 2 months to write them with a further month for evaluation and negotiation prior to contract award. So assume a contract award/signature on 31st Jan 2021, the contractor then has 15 months to build the power lines. Ditto for the sub-station works.
So that would allow for power to be generated by end April 2022.
I think his holdings are in offshore trusts (BVI and Lichtenstein), plus ISA and SIPP. So no tax write-offs if there is a loss, as he won't be paying tax on any gains.
I for one feel reassured that someone like him holds 21m shares in Tlou.