Member Info for dallo

803

Sadly Puretech cannot even hold on to 130p never mind 140p and the share price now nearing 6 month lows again.

I have given up trying to understand this share but it is clear retail investors have no interest in buying despite Tang and Briarwood taking positions recently.

Nothing seems to budge it and with the financing of Celea the only remaining short term catalyst this year

the only hope remaining is a takeover.

Lyne has proved to be another ineffectual manager happy to take his big salary while continuing the busted flush strategy of the Hub and Spoke model.

The dreadful share price performance over the past 10 years is crying out for a change and hopefully a Private Equity bid can put us all out of our misery.

ATB

Lesley

Agree

For the past 5 years Puretech has languished around 120p to 140p despite intermittent good news.

Seaport's listing adding a tradeable quoted stock to its portfolio in addition to cash totalling c $500m has led to no appreciation in the Stock Market valuation.

Nothing seems to move the SP from all time lows ( Don't mention Inflation adjusted SP or the massive gains in the overall Stock Markets indices), which makes you wonder what are we all missing here.

I am going slightly insane looking at the 1p up and 2p down continual trend of the daily price movements of the past 3 years.

Bizarre as Bill Murray must have felt in Groundhog Day the movie

Time for a beer

JSB

The proposed Celea financing is the last big near term catalyst to push the moribund share price higher.

Seaport, Gallop and Cobenfy will have inflection points in 2027 and beyond but if Celea is financed in a manner favourable to Puretech and the LYT-100 Phase 3 starts soon thereafter it must surely lead to a rerating and possible further buying of shares by Tang , Briarwood et al.

However if it doesn't move the SP ,then it will be time for long suffering shareholders to consider their respective positions.

10 years of share price stagnation is just too long for old lads like me.

ATB

In my recent detailed email to Puretech Investor Relations , I stressed that Puretech is now extremely vulnerable to a bid from a Private Equity firm given the abject share price performance over the past 10 years and management's failure to optimise Shareholder value despite the blatant undervaluation of the company's economic valuation in the Stock Market.

Given the justifiable shareholder distain for the Hub and Spoke model and the utter failure of successive management to improve the share price , the prospect of an opportunistic bid is becoming increasingly likely.

I obviously got no reply but critical weeks ahead now if Puretech is to remain independent imho.

The large Institutional investors and Tang and Briarwood ( with over 75% of the total shares in issue) will now call the shots unless Lyne pulls a rabbit out of the hat

ATB

JSB

Another apology.

You are correct again as Briarwood Chase held a 2.8% holding prior to today's notifiable declaration of over 5%.

Doh!

JSB

You are correct...Puretech Health is an Non UK Issuer so 5 % declaration limit applies

JSB

3% shareholding threshold for declaration for holdings in UK Public Companies applies to all shareholders.

So Briarwood could have had under 3% before 5% declaration but would have to state this % in latest TR-1 Form.

That's why I think it is a new investment but maybe they omitted old shareholding on this announcement. ..who knows.

Anyway not really important but good to know that the wolves are smelling blood.

JSB

As someone who has submitted TR-1 Forms in the past, Briarwood must show its previous shareholding and current threshold position on the form .

So it appears Briarwood 's c5.1% is a first position and a substantial one at that.

The big question is where did Briarwood get the shares and without too much trouble.

Strange

Another disastrous decision by Puretech management was the $150m share buybacks where the shares were put into treasury in Puretech.

The advantage of treasury shares in a company following buybacks is that they can be reissued in a market share placing at a higher price without issuing a offer Prospectus.

The reason for buybacks is that the company believes its share price is totally undervalued.

Puretech's buyback treasury shares are over c50 % under water so management have thrown away over $150m on a totally unnecessary and failed exercise.

Another example of utter ineptitude and Lyne appears to be no better.

Bring on a bid asap

If the likes of Nordic Capital or Tang were to move it might be best to do so before Celea is financed and then simply sell off Celea with its Phase 3 IPF LYT-100 being carried out by the new owner probably a large Pharma.

Same goes for Gallop.

Theta

Fully agree with you.

Puretech's days as a Public Company are coming to an end with nothing left once Celea is financed .

Perfect for a Private Equity asset with no HQ costs and cash plus tradeable security Seaport and Celea with possible royalties from Cobenfy and later Seaport.

So why is Puretech continuing as a Public Company other than to pay big salaries to directors and management.

Even by the unique and depressing standards of the past 10 years in Puretech, the SP collapse today after a modest improvement following the Seaport IPO, is utterly shocking but why am I not surprised.

My recent email to management suggesting that the Hub and Spock strategy is despised by the markets and Puretech is viewed as an incubator drug developer with a Venture Capital holding company on top and totally unsuited to being a Public Company .

Again our only hope is a bid from a big Pharma or a Private Equity firm .

Sadly sellers are always here whether the news is good or bad.

Theta

You are correct in your analysis but the FDA is fast tracking late stage drugs in critical illnesses where life expectancy is low..

Puretech is not in the business of commercialising drugs and Celea will be bought out by a big Pharma if trial results show promise.

Phase 3 drugs are commanding big valuations in the Pharma sector at the moment as the quest for new therapies intensifies as patent protection on traditional drugs expire.

ATB

Theta

The SURPASS -IPF LYT-100 drug trial is a 52 week duration trial but may continue for some patients for a while longer.

Results will be known sometime in 2027 not 2030 as you say.

However given the poor outcomes for IPF patients some additional testing may be necessary for a certain cohort of patients.

If the trial is going well in 2027 celea will be bought by a large Pharma imo.

Daz

Am I seeing things ?

Celea Therapeutics has filed for an IPO ??

That's news to me and if true Puretech will be £4 a share within weeks.

Avalyn Pharma is now valued at $1.2 b after listing in the US yesterday despite its respiratory lead drug being only at Stage 2 and involving an inhaler rather than tablet for lung disease.

Some US Investment houses are now putting a pre financing valuation on Celea Therapeutics at c $1.5billion as it enters Stage 3 trials.

Hopefully Puretech plays hard ball on the financing and keeps a major shareholding in Celea plus royalties .

Celea could be worth c $1 billion post financing to Puretech excluding royalties.

It is going to be close to start trading in Seaport before London close.

Delays in Nasdaq 1st day trading are normally linked to volumes of trades to be processed prior to market trading ie bigger volumes equal longer delays.

A new listing on Nasdaq normally has a delayed start on the 1st day as the order books are balanced to ensure an orderly opening market.

Typically trading will commence between 10am and 12 noon New York time or between 3pm and 5pm UK time although in some cases it can be later.

It is looking likely that Seaport's shares could open on Nasdaq at $22 plus which would give a value of c$350m to Puretech's holding giving a total cash ( $250m ) plus Tradeable Securities ( $350m) of nearer $600m against a Puretech market cap of c$400m without taking into account Celea, Gallop and Cobenfy.

Daft.

Very disappointing market reaction to a potential jump in the cash / tradeable securities part of Puretech's NAV of over c $250m to $500m

Maybe we will get a further bump when Seaport opens

on the Nasdaq this afternoon.

I would love to see the likes of Tang Capital increasing its holdings and get some takeover rumours going because the value disconnect is still glaring in Puretech.

Also hopefully our 2 shorters will exit very soon with their combined 1.1% of the shares.