Member Info for DaKen

Perhaps a Tullow Tinted Glasses take on the Kenya deal, but could this be a realistic possibility...

When striking the deal, Gulf intimated that if the FDP gets the green light, significant additional funding will be required which Gulf cannot / will not risk on their own, so a partner / farm down will be necessary to diversify risk and cost.

This triggers Tullow's back-in rights at a time when the Kenya landscape is clearer and there is more certainty on Tullow's financial position, enabling Tullow to more easily secure funding for their share of ongoing development costs.

If the FDP continues to be delayed for years, or is not approved at all, Gulf is only exposed to the $120m consideration to Tullow - $40m of which would not be payable until 2033. This also rebutts JMAX's "If TLW have back-in rights from first oil - why then would they have to wait until 2033, to get the final $40m payment" point 😁

Time will tell I guess, no one on here knows despite JMAX's factual back-in rights convictions, which proved to be completely incorrect 🤭

DaKen

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 54

Price: 15.94

No Opinion

RE: Shorting for a profession30 Jun 2025 17:06

JMAX, as others have said, you have no idea what the back-in terms will be.

You're quoting one simplistic source of how back-in rights typically work, but that's normally for host government back-in scenarios.

The rights may be triggered after a certain level of production, or at a specified date, or perhaps even once Gulf have recovered their "outlay", which doesn't include costs incurred by Tullow to date.

Yes it COULD be on the terms you say are factual, but no they are not factual Mr Know It All

Best part of the RNS was the terms of the back-in rights being completely at odds with what JMAX said was unequivocally factual (only once Gulf recovered $3.5 billion of development costs).

Not saying the terms are favourable, as a sale or farm down is out of Tullow's control, but very satisfying to see the arrogant JMAX get it oh so badly wrong 🤭

"Dunning–Kruger effect" 🤭

Did I just destroy JMAX with some facts? 👀

JMAX, as others have said, you have no idea what the back-in terms will be.

You're quoting one simplistic source of how back-in rights typically work, but that's normally for host government back-in scenarios.

The rights may be triggered after a certain level of production, or at a specified date, or perhaps even once Gulf have recovered their "outlay", which doesn't include costs incurred by Tullow to date.

Yes it COULD be on the terms you say are factual, but no they are not factual Mr Know It All

Are you conveniently forgetting the ~25% back-in rights + royalties Fogwit?

The costs won't start being recovered until production starts - Gulf will get a share of the Govt's share of oil revenues (over many years) until the development costs are recovered.

It could be that some / all pipeline developments costs are not recoverable, in which case Gulf are indeed paying Tullow's share - but they are also able to recover the development costs paid by Tullow to date, so swings and roundabouts.

Xxnjr - I think Gulf may be entitled to recover all pre-production development costs from Govt, so they're effectively just financing our share until they recover it via cost oil.

I had same question Scrodingerscat re recovery of costs to date - circa $2bn I think they were entitled to? Likely transferred to Gulf, however offset by no contribution needed for future development costs.

Also worth noting the 30% is before government back-in rights, which I believe are 15% for one block and 20% for another. So our 30% will reduce to 30% of the remaining 85% and 80%, which is 25.5% and 24% I think.

· Tullow retains a back-in right for a 30% participation (before Government back-in) in potential future development phases at no cost.

Are you still not getting in Dum Dum. From CORRECTED RNS, 11:03am...

Group working interest production in the first quarter of 2024 was c.66 kboepd, including c.7 kboepd of gas production, within the expected range for the period.

· 2024 Group working interest production guidance remains 62-68 kboepd, with the full-year outcome expected to be towards the lower end of the range.

Read the RNS correction JMAX. Amateur hour from someone who claims to be a cut above and ridicules others

BigRisky comes across as a 9 year old. It's embarrassing to read

Polite suggestion NewInn - far easier and more reliable to just Google it.

You've posted that rubbish joke before JMAX, and it wasn't funny the first time.

Quite repetitive aren't you? Aren't you? Aren't you?

Didn't you claim just yesterday that such institutions hear news before the market and tip off their clients? Sounds like you're tying yourself in knots again wee man

Aka brazen insider trading?

Predicted you wouldn't put your hand up JMAX, and would instead divert onto your yawn-inducing posting record guff!

You got schooled by Anton again. No whataboutery, just put your hand up wee man, swallow your pride.

You sound a little rattled JMAX! You've just been hit with exactly what you hit Anton with. A lot has changed since Anton's ancient posts also, so you've been owned. Chin up wee man!

Hahaha JMAX absolutely OWNED by BRB, lovely to see

JMAX, even the most decent of people are bored sheetless of your "who called the 39p sell :)".

You must be nicknamed the human sleeping tablet amongst friends.