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The big big plus which will get recognised by the market is the SUSTAINED increase in production at Vametco. 300mtv month, 3600mtv year. Then add on the Vanchem at 80mtv month. I'm expecting this to increase very swiftly. BMN will have been working on this over the past few months.
Agree Alfa, fantastic update on Vametco production increase. And Vanchem completed exactly on time as the company stated. Dont take these things for granted as we've all seen so many times on other shares with extended delays. Bushveld on the dot! Hugely positive news for shareholders.
@dubmaskullanga, that was the 2017 figures by the looks. I could be wrong but I believe world production to be higher through 2019.
But whether the 50,000mtv to Electrolyte or chemicals is 50 or 60% the numbers are very dramatic relative to world production.
@bassguy it is very difficult to know what the price structure is going to be for electrolyte; as direct sales or leasing. As direct sales I would expect at market price of V products plus value add for electrolyte processing. Leasing structure prices will be known behind closed doors right now due to market sensitivity while Bushveld establish themselves as THE integrated player to go to....we now have clear evidence of this taking place with Avalon/Redt investment. UET already involved in SA. More will follow on this I believe.
BUT the true beauty about all of this in the coming years is the amount of Vanadium taken out of the Steel market for Electrolyte production..not just by BMN, but worldwide, especially China. When this starts to happen what do we think will happen to V prices into Steel and other sectors! Bushveld are literally creating a disruptive business model here which will provide much needed stability to the V market at higher prices than we see right now.
From the redt/avalon RNS
'Preferential vanadium supply rights support Bushveld's mining, processing and chemicals activities in a sector that may require up to 50,000mtV based on market forecasts.'
50,000mtv taken out of the current markets! That's approximately 50% of global production. Yes there will be increased production, and guess what BMN are also working towards; 10,000.mtv with 8,400 steady state capacity. If the VRFB market does well, which is looking very likely, then BMN can push ahead in a few years with a full blown Greenfield plant at Mokopane...adding basically whatever they like to that 10,000mtv, double it or triple it.
We"ve had some exciting years in the growth of Bushveld so far, But the next few years could well blow those years away. I've seen nothing in this management team to tell me otherwise. It is quite incredible how quickly and effectively they work for shareholders. Some editions to the BMN team over the past couple years were stated by the company as being directly involved in the growth and sale of multi billion dollar business. Everything I see tells me that was their intention and is very much their drive.
Well well, a stake in the merged company Avalon/Redt. Some LTH's did feel this could well happen.
The big big plus side to this is the..
"A right of first refusal to supply vanadium, vanadium electrolyte and vanadium as a rental to the merged entity for two years and thereafter subject inter alia to Bushveld continuing to beneficially own at least 5 per cent of the merged entity"
Redt have a backlog of projects that once funded with Avalon will go full pelt at..now they have their Vanadium supplier. And this isn't just any vanadium/Electrolyte supplier!! BMN is THE only true vanadium supplier to be truly fully integrated in the total value stream. It's a cracking deal for all parties to take a very strong position in the VRFB billion dollar market.
https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2019-10-22/cellcube-provides-corporate-update
Cellcube has three wholly-owned subsidiaries: Enerox GmbH (“Enerox”); EnerCube Swithgear Systems Inc. (“Enercube”); and V23 Resources Corp. (“V23”).
Cellcube is currently in a phase of merging , cash injection or selling its subsidiaries as in a cash strapped position.
Enerox GMBH Enerox is the developer and manufacturer of Cellcube energy storage systems.
Enercube, is a leading-edge provider of custom engineered electrical equipment and systems.
The first of such initiatives was announced couple weeks ago with the proposed transaction between Pedro Resources and Enercube. Completion of the transaction will provide Cellcube with some cash while retaining a minority interest in a re-capitalized Enercube. CellCube is currently in negotiations with other parties with respect to both Enerox GmbH and V23 Resources.
So currently no merge or buy for Enerox stated by Cellcube. Whoever buys or injects cash is doing it into the subsidiaries and obviously cheaper than the full Cellcube business. Or that's how it looks.
Would BMN be interested in Enerox?
It has to be for a good reason Bushveld wanted to settle early with cash and shares...a very good reason! Anyone else feel it's all getting very exciting again..They must have high aspirations for EBITDA 2020
Great result today, excellent that its landed ahead of Vanchem. All stakeholders dealt with from the outset has obviously taken a huge amount of time and energy to finalise. BMN is growing as we all hoped into a very big company who's value will follow. So many news avenues opening up now. It certainly did appear as the news may have suffered a slight leak as I watched some trading this afternoon, so may be why released RNS so late.
Looks well and truly like the trend reversal is in full swing.
Ferro-Niobium 66% Rotterdam : US$41.50/kg (0.00%)
Oct 4, 2019
Steel makers will be in the process of switching back to vanadium as Ferro-Niobium has been higher for quite a while now. Those that switched will not pay more than necessary. The move back will be underway. Unless they expect vanadium prices to fly past the 41.5/kg mark...which is quite possible ofcourse with the VRFB market gaining momentum.
Posted some time ago about lease or upfront payment from Eskom. Considering the first phase is fully funded by the world bank, I would be hoping for a split of upfront or ongoing cash payments with medium and longer term leasing mechanisms. What's others thoughts on this, assuming we win a chunk of the project..which is increasingly looking likely.
These are significant market developments regarding the upcoming VRFB industry. Where will the Saudi's get all there Electrolyte from...very few options! They say in production in 2020 which is very nearly upon us. The pressure is building, you can not only read it but you also get the feeling things are turning here. Fundamentals, Sentiment and TA aligning very nicely. The 50k trades are buys today.
Thanks for the link Ophidian. I try to follow the theory as much as I can. I do believe that if we break out as you suggest then the waves 3 to 5 are very much at play. It could be perfect timimg to put some momentum into wave 3 with Vanchem purchase closing and I'm expecting Mokopane news around the same time. Then I think BE will also kick in the weeks to follow that. I thinknthe tideviscturning here and very much looking forward to see how it plays out.
As far as debt goes, Bushveld doesn't currently have any, but I would actually like to see them take on the debt financing that they are in discussions with S.A. banks. Looking at the cash generation over the coming years with Vametco & Vanchem progressively increasing production alone, I see BMN could quite easily take on say a $20 million dollar rolling facility to refurb Vanchem and get Mokopane into the mix. That kind of number would facilitate the whole expansion program over say 3 or 4 years and be a comfortable annual payback. 10,000mtv capacity with 8400mtv production up and away!
This doesn't even consider the BE side of the business. So in the case of Bushveld I welcome a well managed bank debt facility to achieve the above. What are other long term holders thoughts on the likely structure? @fatbanker may well be able to put some thoughts on this?
I keep pondering over the Redt and Avalon merger. I raised the point about the 'new Strategic investor in the merged businesd' a while back and had another look at the relevant RNS from both. Also states 'proposed new investors in Avalon.'
It would be very early stage for BMN to take the leap into IP of VRFB, but this is what they have stated as intention....so I just wonder! I wouldn't rule it out.
'as part of the Merger. VSA Capital, redT's financial adviser and broker, redT and Avalon have received substantial preliminary support for the Fundraising from a strong new strategic investor that intends to make a cornerstone investment in the merged business, as well as from existing institutional investors in redT and both existing and certain proposed new investors in Avalon.'